【摘要】：改革開放以來,我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與金融發(fā)展都取得了舉世矚目的成就,在金融系統(tǒng)不斷發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間是否存在著相互作用的關(guān)系?如果有,存在著什么樣的依存關(guān)系?金融發(fā)展的各個(gè)部分分別是通過怎樣的途徑影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的?對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)又有多大?依托財(cái)政金融的發(fā)展是否又能夠顯著促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長?本文依據(jù)1992年-2012年宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)金融數(shù)據(jù)從實(shí)證分析的角度對中國金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)系作以研究,以探尋上述問題。 文本通過分析歸納國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)及對我國金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長歷程進(jìn)行簡單分析后,構(gòu)造了適度的金融發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的變量指標(biāo),主要從金融深化程度、金融發(fā)展結(jié)構(gòu)和財(cái)政金融效率三個(gè)方面來考察金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相互關(guān)系。實(shí)證研究方法通過建立VAR模型,并在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上對金融發(fā)展的各變量和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變量進(jìn)行Granger因果檢驗(yàn)分析相互作用的關(guān)系,然后脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解進(jìn)行動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)分析相互作用的大小及正負(fù)性,最后進(jìn)行協(xié)整檢驗(yàn),并建立向量誤差修正模型得出各變量的參數(shù)估計(jì)值進(jìn)一步分析出個(gè)變量間相互作用的情況。 通過實(shí)證研究得出了本文重要的兩個(gè)結(jié)論：第一,總體來說我國金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)之間存在著相互促進(jìn)的機(jī)制,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長能夠顯著促進(jìn)金融深化水平的提升,但是對金融機(jī)構(gòu)規(guī)模擴(kuò)張促進(jìn)作用的效果不顯著,同時(shí)金融規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張主要受到了金融深化水平的影響；金融發(fā)展對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的促進(jìn)作用主要表現(xiàn)為金融深化水平的提高能極大的促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,而金融機(jī)構(gòu)規(guī)模擴(kuò)張影響不顯著；也即金融深化水平低的現(xiàn)狀同時(shí)拖累了金融系統(tǒng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)體制改革的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展。第二,經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融、財(cái)政間的關(guān)系是,經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融是同向發(fā)展的,兩者間關(guān)系是相互促進(jìn)相輔相成的關(guān)系;而經(jīng)濟(jì)與財(cái)政之間,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長能顯著促進(jìn)財(cái)政支出增加,而財(cái)政支出對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響不顯著,而脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)顯示出財(cái)政支出受到一個(gè)沖擊時(shí),經(jīng)濟(jì)增長指標(biāo)會做出一個(gè)并不顯著反應(yīng),也即通過增加財(cái)政支出遠(yuǎn)不如利用金融手段促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效果,在一定程度上過度增加財(cái)政支出反而可能對經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長不利。經(jīng)過文章理論與實(shí)證的分析同時(shí)對結(jié)合我國實(shí)際情況對我國金融改革提出了幾點(diǎn)意見：(一)強(qiáng)化金融市場法制建設(shè),適度放寬金融管制,鼓勵(lì)金融創(chuàng)新；(二)完善金融市場結(jié)構(gòu),大力發(fā)展直接融資市場；(三)盡量減少政府對經(jīng)濟(jì)的直接影響。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic growth and financial development have made remarkable achievements. In the crucial period of the continuous development of the financial system and the adjustment of economic structure, is there an interactive relationship between financial development and economic growth? If so, what are the dependencies? How does each part of financial development affect economic growth? What is the contribution to economic growth? Depending on the development of finance and finance, can economic growth be promoted significantly? Based on the macroeconomic and financial data from 1992 to 2012, this paper studies the relationship between China's financial development and economic growth from the perspective of empirical analysis, in order to explore the above problems. After analyzing and summarizing the domestic and foreign literature and simply analyzing the course of financial development and economic growth in China, the paper constructs a variable index of moderate financial development and economic growth, mainly from the degree of financial deepening. Financial development structure and financial efficiency to examine the relationship between finance and economic growth. Empirical research methods based on the VAR model and the VAR model, the relationship between the variables of financial development and the variables of economic growth is analyzed by Granger causality test. Then the pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to analyze the dynamic effect of the interaction and the positive and negative effects of the interaction are analyzed. Finally, the cointegration test is carried out. A vector error correction model is established to estimate the parameters of each variable and further analyze the interaction between the variables. Two important conclusions of this paper are obtained through empirical research. First, there is a mutual promotion mechanism between finance and economy, and economic growth can significantly promote the level of financial deepening. However, the effect of promoting the scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant, and the expansion of financial scale is mainly affected by the level of financial deepening. The promoting effect of financial development on economic growth is that the improvement of financial deepening level can greatly promote economic growth, but the impact of scale expansion of financial institutions is not significant; The low level of financial deepening also impedes the further development of financial system and economic system reform. Second, the relationship between economy and finance is that economy and finance develop in the same direction, and the relationship between them is mutually reinforcing and complementary. Between economy and finance, economic growth can significantly promote the increase of fiscal expenditure, but the impact of fiscal expenditure on economic growth is not significant. The impulse response function shows that fiscal expenditure is affected by a shock. The index of economic growth will make an insignificant response, that is, increasing fiscal expenditure is far less effective than using financial means to promote economic growth. To some extent, excessive increase of fiscal expenditure may be detrimental to economic growth. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis of the article at the same time to combine with the actual situation of our financial reform put forward several suggestions: (1) strengthen the legal construction of financial markets, moderate relaxation of financial regulation, encourage financial innovation; (2) perfect the financial market structure and develop the direct financing market vigorously; (3) minimize the direct influence of the government on the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832;F124.1;F224

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