【摘要】：廣東省作為我國改革開放以來經(jīng)濟(jì)成長最為迅速、發(fā)展成果最為顯著的地區(qū)之一，在各方面有著其獨特的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗。在改革開放三十年之際，廣東省又率先提出了“構(gòu)建現(xiàn)代產(chǎn)業(yè)體系，加快發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變，把解決當(dāng)前問題與謀劃長遠(yuǎn)發(fā)展結(jié)合起來，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)、較快發(fā)展”的戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃。一方面要轉(zhuǎn)變發(fā)展方式，另一方面要保持經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)。由此可見，在調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、促發(fā)展的同時，如何防止經(jīng)濟(jì)的過大波動已經(jīng)是廣東省新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重要議題。 關(guān)于我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響作用，當(dāng)前學(xué)術(shù)界存在不小的爭議。其中，爭論的焦點便是改革開放以來我國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動究竟對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動起到了促進(jìn)作用還是抑制作用，以及關(guān)于這種影響作用的形成機(jī)制。基于此，本文將以廣東省為研究對象，探討其產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動產(chǎn)生的影響，以及這種影響作用的內(nèi)在機(jī)制。以期為廣東省進(jìn)一步的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革提供有益的借鑒。 首先，本文對廣東省改革開放以來的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動過程及其特點、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的波動情況進(jìn)行回顧與總結(jié)，定性地探討兩者之間可能存在的邏輯關(guān)系。 接著，通過構(gòu)建兩個關(guān)于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動對經(jīng)濟(jì)波動影響的計量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，從不同的角度研究其內(nèi)在規(guī)律。一方面，將產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動作為一個整體變量，將其同資本沖擊、勞動力供給沖擊一起，納入到一個簡單的計量模型，分析考察期內(nèi)廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的影響；另一方面，從三大產(chǎn)業(yè)的角度出發(fā)，，利用狀態(tài)空間模型探討三次產(chǎn)業(yè)波動對廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的具體影響，據(jù)此分析廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變動影響經(jīng)濟(jì)波動的內(nèi)在機(jī)制。 最后，基于全文研究，給出相應(yīng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整優(yōu)化的對策建議。并總結(jié)全文，找到研究的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)以及可以改進(jìn)之處，以期為該領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步的研究提供參考。 通過本文研究論證，得到了以下四條主要結(jié)論：一是考察期內(nèi)廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動是一個產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級的過程；二是廣東省產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變動給經(jīng)濟(jì)波動帶來了撫平效應(yīng)；三是撫平效應(yīng)并非源自某些產(chǎn)業(yè)具有與經(jīng)濟(jì)波動周期相逆的波動特征，而是由于各產(chǎn)業(yè)本身波動特征的差異所造成；四是撫平效應(yīng)內(nèi)在機(jī)制的基礎(chǔ)——三次產(chǎn)業(yè)波動特征的差異性，來源于各產(chǎn)業(yè)自身內(nèi)部行業(yè)之間有著不同的波動協(xié)同特性。
[Abstract]:Guangdong Province, as one of the regions with the most rapid economic growth and the most remarkable achievements since the reform and opening up, has its unique development experience in various aspects. During the thirty years of reform and opening up, Guangdong Province took the lead in putting forward the strategic plan of "constructing the modern industrial system, speeding up the transformation of the mode of development, combining the solution of the current problems with the planning of long-term development, and promoting the steady and rapid development of the economy". On the one hand, we must change the mode of development, on the other hand, we must maintain a stable economy. It can be seen that while adjusting the structure and promoting development, how to prevent the excessive fluctuation of the economy has become an important issue in the new round of economic development in Guangdong Province. There is a great deal of controversy about the influence of industrial structure change on macroeconomic fluctuation. Among them, the focus of the debate is whether the industrial structure change has played a role in promoting or restraining economic fluctuations since the reform and opening up, and about the formation mechanism of this effect. Based on this, this paper will take Guangdong Province as the research object, discuss the influence of the change of its industrial structure on the macroeconomic fluctuation, and the internal mechanism of this kind of influence function. With a view to further economic reform in Guangdong Province to provide useful reference. First of all, this paper reviews and summarizes the changing process and characteristics of industrial structure and the fluctuation of macro-economy in Guangdong Province since the reform and opening up, and qualitatively discusses the possible logical relationship between them. Then, by constructing two econometric models about the effect of industrial structure change on economic fluctuation, the internal law is studied from different angles. On the one hand, take the change of industrial structure as a whole variable, and bring it into a simple econometric model together with capital shock and labor supply shock. This paper analyzes the influence of the change of industrial structure on the macroeconomic fluctuation in Guangdong Province during the period of investigation. On the other hand, from the point of view of the three major industries, this paper uses the state space model to discuss the specific influence of the three industrial fluctuations on the economic fluctuation in Guangdong Province, and then analyzes the internal mechanism of the industrial structure changes in Guangdong Province. Finally, based on the full-text research, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions of industrial structure adjustment and optimization are given. The paper summarizes the weakness of the research and can be improved in order to provide a reference for further research in this field. Through the research and argumentation of this paper, the following four main conclusions are obtained: first, the change of Guangdong's industrial structure is a process of upgrading the industrial structure during the period of investigation; second, the change of Guangdong's industrial structure brings about the smoothing effect to the economic fluctuation. Third, the smoothing effect is caused not by the fluctuation characteristics of some industries that are contrary to the cycle of economic fluctuation, but by the differences of the fluctuation characteristics of each industry itself. The fourth is the foundation of the internal mechanism of smoothing effect, the difference of the characteristics of three industrial fluctuations, which comes from the different fluctuating and synergistic characteristics among the internal industries of each industry itself.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F279.2

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