【摘要】：自新世紀(jì)以來(lái),全球經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)形成了以美國(guó)為代表的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家逆差和以中國(guó)為代表的發(fā)展中國(guó)家順差的持續(xù)性失衡。這既對(duì)全球穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)造成了威脅,也對(duì)現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論提出了挑戰(zhàn)。本文認(rèn)為,全球化沖擊下的功能性收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)是導(dǎo)致全球失衡的重要原因,并從理論和實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面研究收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的作用機(jī)制。 在理論模型方面,本文首先基于卡萊茨基收入分配-有效需求理論,推導(dǎo)了收入分配對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的一般傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。模型顯示：相對(duì)勞動(dòng)收入份額的變化對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)占比的作用方向并不確定,與國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)有關(guān)；隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放度的提高,勞動(dòng)收入份額會(huì)下降,而經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)改善；要調(diào)整經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)余額,可通過(guò)調(diào)節(jié)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的壟斷程度,以及原料成本與工資的比例,調(diào)節(jié)收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。其次,基于預(yù)防性?xún)?chǔ)蓄理論,解釋南北國(guó)家間巨大的儲(chǔ)蓄差異,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)這種差異不僅僅源自總體收入水平的差別,更與社會(huì)保障體制、金融市場(chǎng)制度等制度因素密切相關(guān),而這直接影響經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的變化。最后,從勞動(dòng)市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)的角度對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家間經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的差異進(jìn)行邏輯分析,模型顯示：存在協(xié)商機(jī)制的國(guó)家,國(guó)內(nèi)核心產(chǎn)業(yè)得以維持,在國(guó)際產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)上占有一席之地,經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)順差；而不存在協(xié)商機(jī)制的國(guó)家可能出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)萎縮、工人失業(yè)等問(wèn)題,經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)逆差。 本文選擇19個(gè)主要全球經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)失衡的國(guó)家,分為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家兩個(gè)樣本,就1990-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸�；貧w結(jié)果表明：相對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本、實(shí)際有效匯率、直接投資凈流入量都對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)產(chǎn)生顯著影響,相對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)的作用系數(shù)較大；發(fā)展中國(guó)家的回歸結(jié)果不太一致：收入分配結(jié)構(gòu)不平衡是影響中國(guó)和菲律賓經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)失衡的主要原因,而政府主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策轉(zhuǎn)變對(duì)泰國(guó)和印尼的經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)變化起關(guān)鍵作用,馬來(lái)西亞的經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)主要受實(shí)際有效匯率變動(dòng)的影響。實(shí)證結(jié)果也顯示,在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化過(guò)程中,新興國(guó)家擁有廉價(jià)的勞動(dòng)力可提高其在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,相對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本增長(zhǎng)率與經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)順差占比呈正向關(guān)系。隨著新興國(guó)家相對(duì)勞動(dòng)力成本比較優(yōu)勢(shì)下降,政策引導(dǎo)、相對(duì)價(jià)格等因素對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)占比的影響力會(huì)更加突出。 從收入分配角度看,當(dāng)前全球治理的關(guān)鍵在于提高全球總需求水平,改善全球性供大于求的結(jié)構(gòu)性扭曲狀況。這要求發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家改變勞動(dòng)者收入分配下降的趨勢(shì),提高中低收入者的收入比重,建立勞資關(guān)系的協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制。而在新興國(guó)家,重點(diǎn)應(yīng)改變勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的完全競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局,構(gòu)造勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)寡頭壟斷結(jié)構(gòu)。政府則應(yīng)強(qiáng)化再分配功能,提高社會(huì)保障水平,穩(wěn)定收入預(yù)期,從而提高消費(fèi)在總需求中的比重。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, the global current account has formed the deficit of the developed countries represented by the United States and the persistent imbalance of the surplus of the developing countries represented by China. This poses both a threat to stable global growth and a challenge to existing economic theory. This paper holds that the change of functional income distribution structure under the impact of globalization is an important cause of global imbalance, and studies the mechanism of the effect of income distribution structure on current account from both theoretical and empirical aspects. In terms of theoretical model, this paper first deduces the general transmission mechanism of income distribution to current account based on Kaletsky's income distribution-effective demand theory. The model shows that the change of the relative labor income share is uncertain in the direction of the current account share, which is related to the economic structure of the country, and with the increase of economic openness, the labor income share will decrease, while the current account will improve. To adjust the current account balance, we can adjust the monopoly degree of labor market, the ratio of raw material cost to wage, and adjust the income distribution structure. Secondly, based on the precautionary saving theory, we explain the huge difference in savings between North and South countries. We find that this difference is not only derived from the difference in the overall income level, but also closely related to the system factors such as social security system, financial market system, etc. This directly affects changes in the current account. Finally, from the perspective of labor market structure, the paper analyzes the differences of current account between developed countries. The model shows that in countries with negotiation mechanism, domestic core industries can be maintained and have a place in the international product market. Current account surplus; Countries that do not have consultation mechanisms may suffer from shrinking industries, unemployment and current-account deficits. In this paper, 19 countries with major global current account imbalances are divided into developed and developing countries. The data from 1990 to 2010 are analyzed by panel data regression. The regression results show that the relative labor cost, the real effective exchange rate, and the net inflow of direct investment have a significant impact on the current account of developed countries, and the relative labor cost has a great effect on the current account of developed countries. The return results in developing countries have been mixed: imbalances in the income distribution structure have been the main cause of current account imbalances in China and the Philippines, while changes in government-led economic policy have played a key role in changes in the current account in Thailand and Indonesia. Malaysia's current account is mainly affected by movements in the real effective exchange rate. The empirical results also show that in the process of economic globalization, the emerging countries have cheap labor to improve their competitiveness in the world economy, and the relative labor cost growth rate is positively related to the current account surplus. As emerging countries' relative comparative advantage in labour costs declines, policy guidance, relative prices and other factors will have a greater impact on the current account ratio. In terms of income distribution, the key to current global governance is to raise the level of global aggregate demand and to improve the structural distortions of global oversupply. This requires developed countries to change the declining trend of workers' income distribution, raise the proportion of income of middle and low income earners, and establish a coordination mechanism of labor relations. In emerging countries, emphasis should be placed on changing the pattern of complete competition in the labour market and structuring the oligopoly structure of the labour market. The government should strengthen the function of redistribution, raise the level of social security, stabilize the income expectation, and increase the proportion of consumption in the total demand.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.7;F113.8;F224

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