我國經(jīng)濟增長中的居民受益非均衡性分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-10-24 12:13
【摘要】：低收入人群是否以及在多大程度上分享了經(jīng)濟增長成果,近年來尤其受到國內(nèi)外學術(shù)界及各國政府的關(guān)注。增強經(jīng)濟增長過程中的低收入人群的受益程度,讓各經(jīng)濟主體公平合理地分享經(jīng)濟增長成果,逐漸成為許多國際組織的目標之一。1978年以來,我國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)高速增長,居民收入差距也急劇擴張,這意味著不同人群在經(jīng)濟增長中的利益分享存在差異。究竟如何描述這種差異?不同人群在經(jīng)濟增長過程中的利益分享差異有多大?如何變動?影響機制是什么?以及如何看待這些差異?等問題亟需回答。本文以社會福利的評價標準為價值基礎,通過對窮人受益型增長(pro-poor growth)分析框架的反思,提出了基于收入分布全分布分析的新思路。按照該思路,在對經(jīng)濟增長中的居民受益非均衡性總體描述性統(tǒng)計分析之后,本文從三個層次來分析不同收入組人群收入增長及其決定機制：一是宏觀分析,直接將不同收入組人群的收入增長與宏觀經(jīng)濟政策變量關(guān)聯(lián),分析宏觀政策對不同收入組收入增長的影響；二是微觀分析,通過運用無條件分位回歸方法,對不同分位點的收入函數(shù)進行估計和分解,來理解不同收入組人群收入增長的決定機制；三是回到傳統(tǒng),從貧困及其變動的分析中來理解經(jīng)濟增長的居民受益非均衡性。主要結(jié)論有：第一,本文發(fā)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)居民在經(jīng)濟增長過程中受益非均衡性的變化特征更為明顯。不同收入組人群的收入增長率之間表現(xiàn)出明顯的非均衡性。城鎮(zhèn)居民和農(nóng)村居民低收入人群都越來越依賴于工薪收入來分享經(jīng)濟增長的成果。轉(zhuǎn)移性收入在農(nóng)村低收入人群的收入份額及其收入增長貢獻在不斷上升。第二,通過時間序列分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比重和就業(yè)比重與城鎮(zhèn)居民收入增長負相關(guān),第一產(chǎn)業(yè)在GDP中的比重對高收入人群作用更強,第產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)比重對低收入組的影響更大；而第二、三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展使得城鎮(zhèn)高收入居民受益更大。(2)固定資產(chǎn)投資對城鎮(zhèn)低收入人群的收入具有拉動作用,但不利于高收入人群的收入增長；高收入人群更能從利用外資中受益,低收入人群收入不會受到顯著影響。(3)對外開放對于各收入組的收入增長效應具有明顯的差異性。高收入人群從匯率調(diào)整中更容易受益,進出口貿(mào)易發(fā)展更有助于拉動低收入者收入增加。第三,通過G·Fields分解分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)對于城鎮(zhèn)居民收入差距的擴張,區(qū)域差異在歷年解釋中一直都具有比較高的貢獻份額,教育程度的解釋作用在逐漸增強,而所有制、職業(yè)、行業(yè)等因素的總體解釋作用相對較弱。(2)不同時期城鎮(zhèn)居民收入差距擴張的解釋因素具有明顯的差異性。第四,通過無條件分位回歸分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)城鎮(zhèn)居民個體特征(稟賦)效應的相對解釋程度隨著分位點的變化表現(xiàn)出倒U型的關(guān)系。高收入分位點的收入增長中,教育系數(shù)回報的貢獻份額通常更高,教育收益率的遞增變化對于城鎮(zhèn)高收入人群的收入增長更為有利。20世紀90年代所有制結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整更加有利于高收入人群,而不利于收入分布低端人群的收入增長。(2)農(nóng)村居民個體特征(稟賦)效應的相對解釋程度隨著分位點的變化在不同時期具有較強的差異性。但各因素對不同分位點收入決定的解釋程度在不同時期中并不具有一致的規(guī)律性聯(lián)系。第五,通過農(nóng)村居民貧困及其變動的分解分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：(1)經(jīng)濟增長的貧困減緩效應存在著明顯的地區(qū)差異性；經(jīng)濟增長的減貧作用在較大程度上為收入差距擴大所抵消,極端貧困人口越來越難以從現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟增長模式中獲益。(2)在不同年份,教育對于貧困減緩的效應存在較大的差異性,在最近的年份中這種減緩效應有所下降。一般而言,高中教育的貧困減緩效應最強。文章的創(chuàng)新之處主要有,一是對收入分布全分布進行分析的思路相對于窮人受益型增長的分析思路是一種改進。利用時問序列方法和無條件回歸方法來研究該問題,相比其他分析方法有新意,由此得到的結(jié)論也有新意。不足之處,限于現(xiàn)有住戶調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的特點,對某些問題難以分析。
[Abstract]:The extent to which the low-income population has shared the results of economic growth has been particularly concerned by academia and governments at home and abroad in recent years. To enhance the benefit of low-income people in the course of economic growth, let the economic subjects share the fruits of economic growth in a fair and reasonable way and become one of the goals of many international organizations. Since 1978, China's economy continues to grow at a high rate and the gap between the economy and the economy has expanded dramatically. This means that different groups share differences in the benefits of economic growth. How does this difference be described? How big is the difference in the benefits of different people in the process of economic growth? How do I change? What is the impact mechanism? And how do you look at these differences? There is an urgent need to answer questions. Based on the evaluation standard of social welfare, this paper puts forward a new idea based on the distribution of income distribution based on the reflection of the benefit-type growth analysis framework of the poor. According to the thought, the income growth and decision mechanism of different income groups in different income groups are analyzed from three levels after the overall descriptive statistics and analysis of non-equilibrium of residents in economic growth. directly associating the income growth of different income groups with the macroeconomic policy variables, analyzing the influence of macro policies on the income growth of different income groups, 2, micro analysis, estimating and decomposing the income functions of different sub-sites by applying unconditional partial-bit regression method, To understand the determinants of income growth in different groups of income groups; three are to return to traditions and to understand the benefits of economic growth from the analysis of poverty and its changes. The main conclusions are as follows: First, this paper finds that urban residents benefit from non-balanced change in the process of economic growth. There was a clear imbalance between the income growth rates among the different groups of income groups. Both urban residents and low-income people in rural areas are increasingly dependent on wage incomes to share the fruits of economic growth. The share of the income of metastatic income in rural low-income groups and their growth in income continue to rise. Second, through time series analysis, it is found that: (1) The proportion of the first industrial output value and the proportion of employment are negatively correlated with the income growth of urban residents, the proportion of the first industry in GDP is higher than that of the high-income group, the proportion of the industrial employment to the low-income group is greater; and the second, The development of three industries has led to greater benefits for urban high-income residents. (2) The investment of fixed assets has a pulling effect on the income of low-income people in cities and towns, but it is not conducive to income growth of high-income people; high-income people can benefit from the utilization of foreign capital; incomes of low-income people will not be significantly affected. (3) Opening up to the outside world has obvious difference to the income growth effect of each income group. High-income people benefit from exchange rate adjustment, and import and export trade development is more conducive to the increase in income from low-income people. Thirdly, through the analysis and analysis of G 路 Fields, it is found that: (1) For the expansion of the income gap of urban residents, the regional difference always has a relatively high contribution share in the interpretation of the calendar year, the explanation of education level plays an important role in the gradual enhancement, while the ownership, occupation, The overall interpretation of factors such as industry is relatively weak. (2) There are obvious differences in explaining factors of income gap expansion of urban residents in different periods. Fourth, we find that: (1) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of urban residents shows inverted U-shape with the change of sub-site. In the income growth of high-income sub-sites, the contribution share of education coefficient return is usually higher, the incremental change of education yield is more beneficial to the income growth of high-income people in cities and towns. but is not conducive to income growth of low-end groups of income distribution. (2) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of rural residents has higher difference in different periods along with the change of sub-site. However, the degree of interpretation of various factors on the income decisions in different sub-sites did not have consistent regularity in different periods. Fifthly, through the analysis and analysis of poverty and change of rural residents, it is found that: (1) the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth has obvious regional difference; the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth is offset by the expansion of income gap in a large extent; Extreme poverty is becoming increasingly difficult to benefit from existing economic growth models. (2) In different years, education has a greater difference in the effects of poverty alleviation, which has declined in the most recent years. In general, the poverty alleviation effect of high school education is the strongest. The main part of the innovation of the paper is that the analysis of the distribution of income distribution is an improvement over the analysis of the benefit-benefit growth of the poor. The method and unconditional regression method are used to study the problem. Compared with other analytical methods, the results are new. The deficiency is limited to the characteristics of existing household survey data, and it is difficult to analyze some problems.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F124.1;F124.7
本文編號：2291384
[Abstract]:The extent to which the low-income population has shared the results of economic growth has been particularly concerned by academia and governments at home and abroad in recent years. To enhance the benefit of low-income people in the course of economic growth, let the economic subjects share the fruits of economic growth in a fair and reasonable way and become one of the goals of many international organizations. Since 1978, China's economy continues to grow at a high rate and the gap between the economy and the economy has expanded dramatically. This means that different groups share differences in the benefits of economic growth. How does this difference be described? How big is the difference in the benefits of different people in the process of economic growth? How do I change? What is the impact mechanism? And how do you look at these differences? There is an urgent need to answer questions. Based on the evaluation standard of social welfare, this paper puts forward a new idea based on the distribution of income distribution based on the reflection of the benefit-type growth analysis framework of the poor. According to the thought, the income growth and decision mechanism of different income groups in different income groups are analyzed from three levels after the overall descriptive statistics and analysis of non-equilibrium of residents in economic growth. directly associating the income growth of different income groups with the macroeconomic policy variables, analyzing the influence of macro policies on the income growth of different income groups, 2, micro analysis, estimating and decomposing the income functions of different sub-sites by applying unconditional partial-bit regression method, To understand the determinants of income growth in different groups of income groups; three are to return to traditions and to understand the benefits of economic growth from the analysis of poverty and its changes. The main conclusions are as follows: First, this paper finds that urban residents benefit from non-balanced change in the process of economic growth. There was a clear imbalance between the income growth rates among the different groups of income groups. Both urban residents and low-income people in rural areas are increasingly dependent on wage incomes to share the fruits of economic growth. The share of the income of metastatic income in rural low-income groups and their growth in income continue to rise. Second, through time series analysis, it is found that: (1) The proportion of the first industrial output value and the proportion of employment are negatively correlated with the income growth of urban residents, the proportion of the first industry in GDP is higher than that of the high-income group, the proportion of the industrial employment to the low-income group is greater; and the second, The development of three industries has led to greater benefits for urban high-income residents. (2) The investment of fixed assets has a pulling effect on the income of low-income people in cities and towns, but it is not conducive to income growth of high-income people; high-income people can benefit from the utilization of foreign capital; incomes of low-income people will not be significantly affected. (3) Opening up to the outside world has obvious difference to the income growth effect of each income group. High-income people benefit from exchange rate adjustment, and import and export trade development is more conducive to the increase in income from low-income people. Thirdly, through the analysis and analysis of G 路 Fields, it is found that: (1) For the expansion of the income gap of urban residents, the regional difference always has a relatively high contribution share in the interpretation of the calendar year, the explanation of education level plays an important role in the gradual enhancement, while the ownership, occupation, The overall interpretation of factors such as industry is relatively weak. (2) There are obvious differences in explaining factors of income gap expansion of urban residents in different periods. Fourth, we find that: (1) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of urban residents shows inverted U-shape with the change of sub-site. In the income growth of high-income sub-sites, the contribution share of education coefficient return is usually higher, the incremental change of education yield is more beneficial to the income growth of high-income people in cities and towns. but is not conducive to income growth of low-end groups of income distribution. (2) The relative interpretation of individual characteristic (endowment) effect of rural residents has higher difference in different periods along with the change of sub-site. However, the degree of interpretation of various factors on the income decisions in different sub-sites did not have consistent regularity in different periods. Fifthly, through the analysis and analysis of poverty and change of rural residents, it is found that: (1) the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth has obvious regional difference; the poverty alleviation effect of economic growth is offset by the expansion of income gap in a large extent; Extreme poverty is becoming increasingly difficult to benefit from existing economic growth models. (2) In different years, education has a greater difference in the effects of poverty alleviation, which has declined in the most recent years. In general, the poverty alleviation effect of high school education is the strongest. The main part of the innovation of the paper is that the analysis of the distribution of income distribution is an improvement over the analysis of the benefit-benefit growth of the poor. The method and unconditional regression method are used to study the problem. Compared with other analytical methods, the results are new. The deficiency is limited to the characteristics of existing household survey data, and it is difficult to analyze some problems.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F124.1;F124.7
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