鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、外國(guó)企業(yè)FDI與老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-17 20:45
【摘要】：1997年發(fā)生的亞洲金融風(fēng)暴及2007年的金融海嘯相繼打擊全球各國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。于2011年,OECD成員國(guó)只錄得1.5%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)頓失動(dòng)力。于是,世界各國(guó)都將目光放到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)較快的東南亞國(guó)家,例如老撾、柬埔寨、緬甸等成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)新興市場(chǎng)。 雖然老撾于過(guò)去數(shù)十年一直是東南亞國(guó)家中發(fā)展最落后的國(guó)家之一,但經(jīng)過(guò)二十多年的改革開(kāi)放后,老撾逐步吸引更多外資,現(xiàn)正是東南亞國(guó)家中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)較快的地區(qū)之一。東南亞國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)成為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的火車(chē)頭后,區(qū)內(nèi)各國(guó)透過(guò)稅務(wù)優(yōu)惠等措施加快與鄰近國(guó)家進(jìn)行更緊密的經(jīng)貿(mào)合作政策。隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的蓬勃發(fā)展,區(qū)內(nèi)貿(mào)易及投資等活動(dòng)不斷增多。老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)改革開(kāi)放后,投資環(huán)境逐步改善,受惠于周邊國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力,來(lái)自泰國(guó)、中國(guó)及越南等鄰國(guó)的直接投資不斷增長(zhǎng)。 然而,面對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)急速發(fā)展及外來(lái)投資不斷增多,老撾政府必須謹(jǐn)慎分析各種急速變化所帶來(lái)的影響,從而制訂合適的政策,與中國(guó)、泰國(guó)、緬甸等周邊國(guó)家共同發(fā)展,達(dá)至雙贏。作者以老撾FDI作為中心,輔以中國(guó)、泰國(guó)等鄰國(guó)的GDP、FDI資本存量、生產(chǎn)力等進(jìn)行宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論及實(shí)證分析,為老撾政府未來(lái)的發(fā)展方向做出指引。 本研究各章節(jié)的具體內(nèi)容如下： 第1章,本章節(jié)主要提出全文的研究?jī)?nèi)容、目標(biāo)及意義,并為全文訂定嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)目蚣?清晰的研究框架對(duì)全文脈絡(luò)非常重要,確保本研究各章節(jié)都緊緊扣上主題。 第2章,根據(jù)過(guò)往不同學(xué)者所做的分析研究,綜述發(fā)展中國(guó)家的鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及對(duì)FDI的影響,以及FDI對(duì)東道國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及就業(yè)的影響,并從中找出過(guò)去不同研究的缺失,從而令本研究得到更清晰的研究方向和目標(biāo)。 第3章,本章節(jié)將會(huì)以老撾的經(jīng)濟(jì)、FDI的發(fā)展及投資環(huán)境的分析為其后研究FDI對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響打好根基。本章以老撾的歷史、地理、政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)及文化等背景的一個(gè)綜合分析作為開(kāi)始,了解老撾的獨(dú)特國(guó)情能令其后的理論及實(shí)證分析更為有效。其后,老撾FDI的分析由FDI于老撾發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)開(kāi)始,透徹了解FDI于老撾的發(fā)展情況；同時(shí),本文將分析老撾改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的種種政策及法律修改對(duì)投資環(huán)境的影響,并通過(guò)與鄰國(guó)吸引FDI的經(jīng)驗(yàn)做出比較,了解外商到老撾投資的印象。最后,老撾政府為吸引FDI而大力推動(dòng)發(fā)展特別經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)(SEZ),本章將會(huì)利用SWOT分析,研究老撾最近成立SEZ所遇到的機(jī)遇、威脅、優(yōu)勢(shì)及缺點(diǎn),從而建議老撾政府做出針對(duì)性的政策,并參考鄰國(guó)成功的經(jīng)驗(yàn),利用SEZ作為國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型及發(fā)展的重要工具。 第4章,詳細(xì)了解以往的研究分析,以及老撾政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、文化、投資發(fā)展等重要背景后,本章將會(huì)分析鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、外國(guó)企業(yè)FDI與老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,此章貫穿全文,為本研究理論研究的重心。本章首先分析鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,了解到老撾及鄰近區(qū)域日益頻繁及緊密的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)會(huì)推動(dòng)老撾的FDI發(fā)展后,本文將理論分析老撾FDI對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、就業(yè)及生態(tài)環(huán)境等多方面的影響,最后總結(jié)出鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)如何透過(guò)FDI影響老撾長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。 第5章,文章開(kāi)始理論研究結(jié)束,并正式進(jìn)入實(shí)證研究部分,因?qū)嵶C研究的可靠度最主要取決于數(shù)據(jù)的質(zhì)素及計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型的運(yùn)用。于是,本章節(jié)將會(huì)簡(jiǎn)單陳述后續(xù)章節(jié)將會(huì)用到的統(tǒng)計(jì)模型,讓讀者更了解統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果的解釋能力。 第6章,利用第五章所選取的各種合適的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型于第六至第七章做出實(shí)證研究,分析外國(guó)企業(yè)FDI對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響。第六章將會(huì)研究老撾與鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)互動(dòng)的影響,因考慮到樣本數(shù)量有限,只能選擇對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)影響最深遠(yuǎn)的國(guó)家作重點(diǎn)的實(shí)證分析,因中國(guó)及泰國(guó)對(duì)老撾總體FDI的影響舉足輕重,而老撾政府的政策亦重點(diǎn)與泰國(guó)及中國(guó)發(fā)展更緊密的經(jīng)貿(mào)關(guān)系,于是本文決定選擇中國(guó)及泰國(guó)作代表分析鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)老撾的影響。首先以VECM脈沖響應(yīng)(Impulse response)及方差分解(Variance decomposition)分析老撾GDP,FDI及生產(chǎn)力與泰國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)影響。其后,本章將加入中國(guó),同時(shí)研究老撾、泰國(guó)、中國(guó)之間經(jīng)濟(jì)的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系。 第7章,實(shí)證研究老撾FDI對(duì)其經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,本章會(huì)首先以季節(jié)周期非線性自回歸模型(Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model,SNAR)分析老撾FDI的發(fā)展特性,并將對(duì)此做出預(yù)測(cè)。其后,本文將以結(jié)構(gòu)向量誤差修正模型(SVECM)分析FDI對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及生產(chǎn)力的影響。最后,由于經(jīng)濟(jì)變量異方差的特性,本文將會(huì)使用廣義自回歸條件異方差模型(generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, GARCH)分析老撾FDI資本存量及GDP間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系 第8章,通過(guò)理論及實(shí)證分析研究,本文已經(jīng)對(duì)鄰國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)、FD!對(duì)老撾經(jīng)濟(jì)影響有充分的了解,本章將會(huì)畫(huà)龍點(diǎn)睛地將純粹的學(xué)術(shù)研究轉(zhuǎn)為具體的政策建議。 第9章,此章節(jié)總結(jié)全文,簡(jiǎn)潔有力地響應(yīng)第一章所帶出的問(wèn)題,前后呼應(yīng)。
[Abstract]:The Asian financial turmoil in 1997 and the financial tsunami in 2007 hit the world's economic growth one after another. In 2011, the OECD member countries recorded only 1.5% economic growth, and the global economic growth suddenly lost momentum. Economic emerging markets.
Although Laos has been one of the most underdeveloped countries in Southeast Asia in the past few decades, after more than 20 years of reform and opening up, Laos has gradually attracted more foreign capital, and now it is one of the fastest growing regions in Southeast Asia. With the vigorous development of the economy, trade and investment activities in the region have been increasing. After the reform and opening up of Laos economy, the investment environment has gradually improved, benefiting from the driving force of the rapid economic growth of the surrounding countries, such as Thailand, China and Vietnam. Direct investment continues to grow.
However, in the face of rapid domestic development and increasing foreign investment, the Lao government must carefully analyze the impact of various rapid changes, so as to formulate appropriate policies to achieve win-win development with China, Thailand, Myanmar and other neighboring countries. The productivity and other macroeconomic theories and empirical analysis will guide the future development direction of the Lao government.
The specific contents of each chapter are as follows:
Chapter 1, this chapter mainly proposes the research content, objectives and significance of the full text, and sets a rigorous framework for the full text. A clear research framework is very important to the context of the full text, to ensure that the research chapters are closely linked to the theme.
Chapter 2, based on the analysis and research done by different scholars in the past, summarizes the economic development of neighboring countries in developing countries and its impact on FDI, as well as the impact of FDI on economic growth and employment of host countries, and finds out the shortcomings of different studies in the past, so as to make this study more clear research directions and objectives.
Chapter 3 will lay a solid foundation for the study of the impact of FDI on the economy of Laos, the development of FDI and the analysis of investment environment. Afterwards, the analysis of FDI in Laos begins with the trend of FDI development in Laos, and thoroughly understands the development of FDI in Laos. At the same time, this paper will analyze the impact of various policies and legal amendments on the investment environment since the reform and opening-up of Laos, and make a comparison with the experience of neighboring countries in attracting FDI to understand the impression of foreign investment in Laos. Finally, in order to attract FDI, the Lao government will vigorously promote the development of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ). This chapter will use SWOT analysis to study the opportunities, threats, strengths and weaknesses of the recent establishment of SEZ in Laos. Therefore, it is suggested that the Lao government should make targeted policies and make use of SEZ as the focus of the country's economic transformation and development. Want a tool.
Chapter 4, after a detailed understanding of the past research and analysis, as well as the important political, economic, cultural, investment and development background of Laos, this chapter will analyze the economic development of neighboring countries, foreign enterprises FDI and Laos, this chapter runs through the full text, as the focus of this theoretical study. After the increasingly frequent and close economic activities in Laos and its neighboring regions will promote the development of Laos'FDI, this paper will theoretically analyze the impact of Laos' FDI on Laos'economic growth, employment and ecological environment, and finally summarize how the neighboring economies affect Laos' long-term economic development through FDI.
Chapter 5 begins with the conclusion of the theoretical study and enters into the empirical study, because the reliability of the empirical study mainly depends on the quality of the data and the use of econometric models.
Chapter 6 makes an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the economic development of Laos by using various appropriate econometric models selected in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 will study the impact of economic interaction between Laos and its neighbours. Considering the limited number of samples, only the country with the most profound economic impact on Laos can be selected. As China and Thailand play an important role in the overall FDI of Laos, and the policy of the Lao government focuses on developing closer economic and trade relations with Thailand and China, this paper chooses China and Thailand as the representative to analyze the impact of neighboring economies on Laos. Variance decomposition is used to analyze the dynamic effects of GDP, FDI and productivity in Laos on the macro-economy of Thailand.
Chapter 7 empirically studies the impact of Laos FDI on its economy. First, this chapter uses Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model (SNAR) to analyze the development characteristics of Laos FDI, and then makes a prediction. Then, this paper uses SVECM to analyze the economic growth and production of Laos. Finally, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model will be used to analyze the interaction between FDI capital stock and GDP in Laos because of the heteroscedasticity of economic variables.
Chapter 8, through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper has a full understanding of the economic impact of neighboring countries, FD! On the Laos economy, this chapter will focus on the pure academic research into specific policy recommendations.
In the ninth chapter, this chapter summarizes the whole text, and responds simply and effectively to the problems brought out in Chapter one.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F133.4
本文編號(hào)：2247039
[Abstract]:The Asian financial turmoil in 1997 and the financial tsunami in 2007 hit the world's economic growth one after another. In 2011, the OECD member countries recorded only 1.5% economic growth, and the global economic growth suddenly lost momentum. Economic emerging markets.
Although Laos has been one of the most underdeveloped countries in Southeast Asia in the past few decades, after more than 20 years of reform and opening up, Laos has gradually attracted more foreign capital, and now it is one of the fastest growing regions in Southeast Asia. With the vigorous development of the economy, trade and investment activities in the region have been increasing. After the reform and opening up of Laos economy, the investment environment has gradually improved, benefiting from the driving force of the rapid economic growth of the surrounding countries, such as Thailand, China and Vietnam. Direct investment continues to grow.
However, in the face of rapid domestic development and increasing foreign investment, the Lao government must carefully analyze the impact of various rapid changes, so as to formulate appropriate policies to achieve win-win development with China, Thailand, Myanmar and other neighboring countries. The productivity and other macroeconomic theories and empirical analysis will guide the future development direction of the Lao government.
The specific contents of each chapter are as follows:
Chapter 1, this chapter mainly proposes the research content, objectives and significance of the full text, and sets a rigorous framework for the full text. A clear research framework is very important to the context of the full text, to ensure that the research chapters are closely linked to the theme.
Chapter 2, based on the analysis and research done by different scholars in the past, summarizes the economic development of neighboring countries in developing countries and its impact on FDI, as well as the impact of FDI on economic growth and employment of host countries, and finds out the shortcomings of different studies in the past, so as to make this study more clear research directions and objectives.
Chapter 3 will lay a solid foundation for the study of the impact of FDI on the economy of Laos, the development of FDI and the analysis of investment environment. Afterwards, the analysis of FDI in Laos begins with the trend of FDI development in Laos, and thoroughly understands the development of FDI in Laos. At the same time, this paper will analyze the impact of various policies and legal amendments on the investment environment since the reform and opening-up of Laos, and make a comparison with the experience of neighboring countries in attracting FDI to understand the impression of foreign investment in Laos. Finally, in order to attract FDI, the Lao government will vigorously promote the development of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ). This chapter will use SWOT analysis to study the opportunities, threats, strengths and weaknesses of the recent establishment of SEZ in Laos. Therefore, it is suggested that the Lao government should make targeted policies and make use of SEZ as the focus of the country's economic transformation and development. Want a tool.
Chapter 4, after a detailed understanding of the past research and analysis, as well as the important political, economic, cultural, investment and development background of Laos, this chapter will analyze the economic development of neighboring countries, foreign enterprises FDI and Laos, this chapter runs through the full text, as the focus of this theoretical study. After the increasingly frequent and close economic activities in Laos and its neighboring regions will promote the development of Laos'FDI, this paper will theoretically analyze the impact of Laos' FDI on Laos'economic growth, employment and ecological environment, and finally summarize how the neighboring economies affect Laos' long-term economic development through FDI.
Chapter 5 begins with the conclusion of the theoretical study and enters into the empirical study, because the reliability of the empirical study mainly depends on the quality of the data and the use of econometric models.
Chapter 6 makes an empirical study of the impact of FDI on the economic development of Laos by using various appropriate econometric models selected in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 will study the impact of economic interaction between Laos and its neighbours. Considering the limited number of samples, only the country with the most profound economic impact on Laos can be selected. As China and Thailand play an important role in the overall FDI of Laos, and the policy of the Lao government focuses on developing closer economic and trade relations with Thailand and China, this paper chooses China and Thailand as the representative to analyze the impact of neighboring economies on Laos. Variance decomposition is used to analyze the dynamic effects of GDP, FDI and productivity in Laos on the macro-economy of Thailand.
Chapter 7 empirically studies the impact of Laos FDI on its economy. First, this chapter uses Seasonal Nonlinear Autoregressive Model (SNAR) to analyze the development characteristics of Laos FDI, and then makes a prediction. Then, this paper uses SVECM to analyze the economic growth and production of Laos. Finally, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model will be used to analyze the interaction between FDI capital stock and GDP in Laos because of the heteroscedasticity of economic variables.
Chapter 8, through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper has a full understanding of the economic impact of neighboring countries, FD! On the Laos economy, this chapter will focus on the pure academic research into specific policy recommendations.
In the ninth chapter, this chapter summarizes the whole text, and responds simply and effectively to the problems brought out in Chapter one.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F133.4
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