【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)已使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷運(yùn)行5年,歐債危機(jī)的陰云逐漸蔓延,發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力,經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)已經(jīng)迫使世界開(kāi)始尋求在短期變革和長(zhǎng)期變革的途徑。世界各國(guó)以及各個(gè)研究機(jī)構(gòu)開(kāi)始對(duì)國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力進(jìn)行重新認(rèn)識(shí),認(rèn)真反思其評(píng)價(jià)方式和評(píng)價(jià)體系,試圖從國(guó)家競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力要素中找到提升本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的動(dòng)力。中國(guó)也開(kāi)始了從結(jié)構(gòu)層面尋找突破口,力圖通過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型等方式來(lái)提振經(jīng)濟(jì),提升國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。 本文以洛桑國(guó)際管理發(fā)展學(xué)院(International Institute for Management Development,簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)IMD)提出的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力評(píng)價(jià)理論框架為基礎(chǔ),采用1997年到2011年全球59個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體面板數(shù)據(jù),利用自回歸分布滯后模型技術(shù),識(shí)別19個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的長(zhǎng)短期滯后效應(yīng)特征,根據(jù)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素的滯后效應(yīng)特征,整合要素信息,構(gòu)建競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力增長(zhǎng)分指數(shù)和發(fā)展分指數(shù)；采用靜態(tài)比較方法,剝離IMD評(píng)價(jià)信息中的長(zhǎng)期因素和短期因素,發(fā)現(xiàn)金融危機(jī)后,大部分發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的短期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)因素和長(zhǎng)期競(jìng)爭(zhēng)因素表現(xiàn)不平衡,短期因素表現(xiàn)較差,對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力排名的下拉作用明顯,而長(zhǎng)期因素對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力排名作用不明顯。中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的短期因素和長(zhǎng)期因素表現(xiàn)也不平衡,但不同于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體,具有短期效應(yīng)特征的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素表現(xiàn)突出,能使競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力總排名提升七位；具有長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)特征的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素表現(xiàn)較弱,會(huì)使競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力總排名下降八位。進(jìn)而對(duì)中國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的短期增長(zhǎng)與長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展能力進(jìn)行優(yōu)劣勢(shì)分析,提出優(yōu)化中國(guó)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的思路和政策空間。本文提出的以競(jìng)爭(zhēng)要素的滯后效應(yīng)特征視角,整合競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力要素信息的方法,為國(guó)家和區(qū)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力評(píng)價(jià)研究提供了一個(gè)可供選擇的研究思路。
[Abstract]:The economic crisis has caused the world economy to slow down for five years, the European debt crisis has spread gradually, the economic growth of developed and developing countries has been weak, and the economic crisis has forced the world to seek ways to change in the short and long term. Countries and research institutions around the world began to re-understand the competitiveness of the country, seriously reflect on its evaluation methods and evaluation system, trying to find out from the elements of national competitiveness to promote the economic growth of their own power. China has also begun to seek a breakthrough from the structural level in an effort to boost the economy and enhance international competitiveness through economic transformation. Based on the theoretical framework of competitiveness evaluation proposed by Lobsang International School of Management and Development (IMD), this paper adopts the panel data of 59 global economies from 1997 to 2011, and uses the technology of autoregressive distributed lag model. According to the characteristics of lag effect of 19 competitive factors on economic growth, according to the characteristics of lag effect of competitive factors and integrating the information of factors, the index of competitive growth and the index of development are constructed, and the static comparison method is adopted. By stripping out the long-term and short-term factors in IMD evaluation information, it is found that after the financial crisis, the short-term competitive factors and the long-term competitive factors in most developed economies are not balanced, while the short-term factors are poor. The drop-down effect on competitiveness ranking is obvious, while long-term factors have no obvious effect on competitiveness ranking. The short-term factors and long-term factors of China's competitiveness are also unbalanced, but different from the developed economies, the competitive factors with short-term effects are outstanding, which can enhance the overall competitiveness ranking by seven places. The weak performance of competitive factors with long-term effect will reduce the total competitiveness ranking by eight places. Then the advantages and disadvantages of the short-term growth and long-term development of China's competitiveness are analyzed, and the ideas and policy space of optimizing China's international competitiveness are put forward. In this paper, the method of integrating the information of competitive factors from the perspective of lag effect of competitive factors provides an alternative approach for the evaluation of national and regional competitiveness.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F113;F124;F224

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