【摘要】：過去二十年,全球貿(mào)易迅猛發(fā)展,但與此同時(shí),全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡問題也日益突出：全球最大經(jīng)濟(jì)體美國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶長(zhǎng)期逆差而全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中國(guó)的經(jīng)常賬戶長(zhǎng)期順差。經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡不僅引發(fā)各種貿(mào)易爭(zhēng)端和摩擦,而且是金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)的根源。因此,探討全球失衡的原因具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文通過一個(gè)兩部門模型,闡述了在服務(wù)貿(mào)易不自由的情況下,“制造業(yè)-服務(wù)業(yè)”的國(guó)際分工引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的機(jī)制,并通過構(gòu)建基于勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率差異的制造業(yè)-服務(wù)業(yè)顯示比較優(yōu)勢(shì)指標(biāo),對(duì)29個(gè)OECD國(guó)家1995-2007年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行面板回歸,檢驗(yàn)了“制造業(yè)-服務(wù)業(yè)”的國(guó)際分工對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的影響,并區(qū)分了可貿(mào)易服務(wù)業(yè)和不可貿(mào)易服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶影響的差異。研究結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),服務(wù)貿(mào)易壁壘廣泛存在,導(dǎo)致服務(wù)貿(mào)易開放度遠(yuǎn)小于貨物貿(mào)易；在服務(wù)貿(mào)易被限制的情況下,“制造業(yè)-服務(wù)業(yè)”的國(guó)際分工會(huì)引發(fā)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的失衡。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn),可貿(mào)易程度越高的服務(wù)業(yè)的比較優(yōu)勢(shì)對(duì)經(jīng)常賬戶的影響更大。因此,服務(wù)貿(mào)易不自由下的“制造業(yè)-可貿(mào)易服務(wù)業(yè)”的國(guó)際分工才是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡的根源�；谶@些研究結(jié)論,本文提出服務(wù)貿(mào)易自由化的政策建議,對(duì)于緩解當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)失衡有重要的意義。
[Abstract]:Global trade has grown rapidly over the past two decades, but at the same time global imbalances have become increasingly acute: the world's largest economy, the United States, has a chronic current account deficit and China, the world's second-largest economy, has a long-term current account surplus. Economic imbalances not only lead to various trade disputes and frictions, but also the root of the financial crisis. Therefore, to explore the causes of global imbalances has important practical significance. Based on a two-sector model, this paper expounds the mechanism of the international division of "manufacturing-service" to cause economic imbalance under the condition that trade in services is not free. By constructing the index of comparative advantage between manufacturing and service industry based on the labor productivity difference, the panel regression of 29 OECD countries' data from 1995 to 2007 is carried out to test the impact of the international division of labor on the economic imbalance of "manufacturing and service industry". The difference between tradable services and non-tradable services on current account is also discussed. The results show that the wide existence of barriers to trade in services leads to a much less open degree of trade in services than trade in goods, and when the trade in services is restricted, the international trade unions in "manufacturing-service" cause the imbalance of the global economy. It is also found that the comparative advantage of services with higher degree of trade has a greater impact on the current account. Therefore, the international division of labor between manufacturing and tradable services is the root of the global economic imbalance. Based on these conclusions, this paper puts forward policy recommendations on liberalization of trade in services, which is of great significance to alleviate the current global economic imbalance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F113;F746.18

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本文編號(hào)：2220538