中國全要素生產(chǎn)率的測算與分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-09-03 12:52
【摘要】：自改革開放以來,中國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展勢頭迅猛,取得了令人矚目的成就。世界銀行分析報告指出,中國經(jīng)濟的增長速度之快以及持續(xù)時間之長都是在世界經(jīng)濟的歷史長河中很少見的。但是中國經(jīng)濟的增長到底是一種什么方式的高增長,增長能否持續(xù),這些都需要進行更加深入的研究。全要素生產(chǎn)率有助于我們解決這些問題。他可以確定各要素對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度,進而識別經(jīng)濟的增長到底是投入型增長還是效率型增長,從而判定經(jīng)濟增長的可持續(xù)性。我們還可以通過各要素投入對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度與全要素生產(chǎn)率增長對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度進行比較,進一步確定我國的經(jīng)濟政策是應(yīng)該以增加總需求為先,還是應(yīng)該以促進技術(shù)進步和調(diào)節(jié)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)為主。所以,從這個層面上來說,全要生產(chǎn)率的估算對于經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展具有極為重要的意義。 目前,全要素生產(chǎn)率的測算方法可以分為兩大類：第一類,參數(shù)方法。主要包括,索洛余值法,拓展的索洛余值法,隨機前沿生產(chǎn)函數(shù)法(SFA)等。第二類,非參數(shù)方法。主要包括指數(shù)法,數(shù)據(jù)包絡(luò)分析法(DEA)等。二者的主要區(qū)別在于是否需要具體的生產(chǎn)函數(shù)形式。本文將采用OECD對發(fā)達國家所建議的索洛余值法,因為此方法是建立在嚴(yán)格的經(jīng)濟理論和數(shù)理推導(dǎo)的基礎(chǔ)之上,不存在邏輯性錯誤。 雖說索洛余值法是一種比較普遍采用的做法,但是學(xué)者們在采用此方法時仍然會產(chǎn)生兩個比較有爭議性的問題,第一個就是勞動投入量的測算。我們在核算勞動投入的時候,直接使用就業(yè)人數(shù)這一概念來作為勞動投入。但是嚴(yán)格意義上來說,就業(yè)人數(shù)只是簡單地反映了勞動投入的數(shù)量上的變化,它并不能夠反應(yīng)勞動投入的質(zhì)量的變化。OECD國家建議使用勞動工時這一概念對勞動投入進行質(zhì)量上的調(diào)整,但是由于我國缺乏相關(guān)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),所以根本沒辦法采用此方法來核算勞動投入。在實證研究中,采用勞動者人數(shù)這一概念占絕大多數(shù),所以本文也采用此指標(biāo)。另一個比較具有爭議性的問題是資本投入量的測算。我們采用2004年出版的《資本測算手冊—關(guān)于資本存量、固定資本消耗及資本服務(wù)測算》一書中所建議的一體化的PIM法來測算資本服務(wù)量進行,而不是簡單地使用固定資本存量或者固定資本投資額這一概念來進行全要素生產(chǎn)率的測算。 本文對全要素生產(chǎn)率的測算主要包括以下幾點內(nèi)容： 第一部分主要是闡明了本文的選題背景和意義。全要素生產(chǎn)率的測算對于分析經(jīng)濟增長的源泉以及國家制定相關(guān)經(jīng)濟政策都具有極為重要的參考價值。 第二部分主要對全要素生產(chǎn)率的研究方法進行了簡單評述。此部分我們將目前TFP的研究方法分為參數(shù)方法和非參數(shù)方法兩大類,并對每一種研究方法的相關(guān)文獻進行了評述。本文最終選取索洛余值法,此方法也是目前為止使用最為廣泛的一種估算方法。 第三部分我們主要對資本投入的測量方法進行了詳細(xì)的闡述。在進行全要素生產(chǎn)率的測量時,總產(chǎn)出以及勞動投入的數(shù)據(jù)都屬于比較基礎(chǔ)的數(shù)據(jù),很容易就可以獲得,唯一比較有難度的就是資本投入量的測量。所以在這一部分,我們將依據(jù)OECD編制的資本測算手冊,具體的講述一體化的PIM法,包括服務(wù)壽命、年齡價格函數(shù)、退出函數(shù)、使用者成本、Tornqvist指數(shù)加權(quán)等概念,并且對它們之間的邏輯關(guān)系以及怎么運用他們得到資本服務(wù)物量指數(shù)都進行了較為清晰明了的說明。 第四部分主要是關(guān)于勞動及產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)的選擇和處理,并對要素產(chǎn)出彈性進行了估算。勞動投入數(shù)據(jù)采用的是就業(yè)人員數(shù),數(shù)據(jù)來自歷年的《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》,總產(chǎn)出數(shù)據(jù)同樣來自《中國統(tǒng)計年鑒》,并且利用國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值價格指數(shù)將歷年的國內(nèi)成產(chǎn)總值轉(zhuǎn)化成以1978年價格為不變價的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值。并且,我們份額法對要素產(chǎn)出彈性進行了估算。 第五部分主要講述了資本服務(wù)量的估算過程和結(jié)果。在進行資本投入量的估算時,首先將資產(chǎn)分為三類,并確定各類資產(chǎn)的服務(wù)壽命。年齡—效率函數(shù)我們選擇雙曲模式,退出函數(shù)選擇的是鐘形退出函數(shù)中的正態(tài)分布函數(shù)。在基期資本存量選擇上,我們直接采用其他學(xué)者的計算結(jié)果,結(jié)合歷年固定資本形成總額數(shù)據(jù),我們就可以通過PIM法估算出我國的資本投入量,并最終得到我們所需要的資本服務(wù)物量指數(shù)。 第六部分主要講述了基于索洛余值法的全要素生產(chǎn)率的計算及對估算結(jié)果的分析。在得到上述數(shù)據(jù)以后,我們用總產(chǎn)出的增長率減去勞動投入增長率和資本投入增長率與各自所對應(yīng)的產(chǎn)出彈性的乘積,即可得到全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長類率。對估算結(jié)果的分析主要著眼于以下三個方面：全要素生產(chǎn)率增長率的波動性分析、全要素生產(chǎn)率的增長與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系分析、通過估算結(jié)果對我國經(jīng)濟增長方式的判斷分析。得出的結(jié)論是：我國目前的經(jīng)濟增長方式屬于要素投入(尤其是資本投入)與全要素生產(chǎn)率雙推動型。 第七部分主要講述了提高全要素生產(chǎn)率的措施和意見。主要包括以下幾種措施：加強自主創(chuàng)新意識及政策扶持力度、提高資源配置效率、繼續(xù)深化市場經(jīng)濟體制改革、注重勞動力質(zhì)量的培養(yǎng)落實人才強國戰(zhàn)略。這些措施和意見將逐漸促進我國經(jīng)濟增長方式的轉(zhuǎn)變以及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化,全面提升全要素生產(chǎn)率,并最終使我國的經(jīng)濟朝著可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路前進。 在文章的最后一部分,我們集中總結(jié)了一下本文存在的不足以及后續(xù)的研究展望。存在的不足主要表現(xiàn)在資本和勞動投入數(shù)據(jù)的處理以及某些比較嚴(yán)格的假定方面,比如規(guī)模收益不變的假定和完全競爭市場的假定,這些假定在我國目前情況下都是難以實現(xiàn)的。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development momentum has been swift and violent, and has made remarkable achievements. The World Bank analysis report points out that China's economic growth rate and duration are rare in the long history of the world economy. But what kind of high growth is China's economic growth in the end? We can determine the contribution of each factor to economic growth, and then identify whether economic growth is input-based growth or efficiency-based growth, so as to determine the sustainability of economic growth. The contribution of each factor input to economic growth is compared with the contribution of total factor productivity growth to economic growth to further determine whether China's economic policy should be based on increasing aggregate demand or promoting technological progress and adjusting industrial structure. The development of the economy is of great importance.
At present, the methods of calculating total factor productivity can be divided into two categories: the first one is parametric method, which mainly includes Solow residual method, extended Solow residual method, stochastic frontier production function method (SFA), etc. The second one is non-parametric method, which mainly includes index method, data envelopment analysis (DEA), etc. This paper will adopt the Solow residual method proposed by OECD for developed countries, because this method is based on strict economic theory and mathematical deduction, and there is no logical error.
Although Solow residual method is a common method, scholars still have two controversial problems when they adopt this method. The first one is the calculation of labor input. When we calculate labor input, we directly use the concept of employment as labor input. OECD countries suggest to use the concept of labor hours to adjust the quality of labor input, but because of the lack of relevant statistical data in China, it is impossible to use this method at all. Another controversial issue is the measurement of capital input. We adopt the Capital Measurement Manual published in 2004 - on capital stock, fixed capital consumption and capital service measurement. The integrated PIM method proposed in the book is used to measure capital services rather than simply using the concept of fixed capital stock or fixed capital investment to measure total factor productivity.
The total factor productivity measurement includes the following contents:
The first part is to clarify the background and significance of this paper. The measurement of total factor productivity is of great reference value to the analysis of the source of economic growth and the formulation of relevant national economic policies.
In this part, we divide the current TFP research methods into two categories: parametric method and non-parametric method, and comment on the relevant literature of each research method. A generalized estimation method.
In the third part, we mainly elaborate on the measurement method of capital input. In the measurement of total factor productivity, the total output and labor input data are comparatively basic data, it is easy to obtain, the only more difficult is the measurement of capital input. According to the OECD's Capital Measurement Manual, this paper describes the integrated PIM method, including service life, age price function, exit function, user cost, Tornqvist index weighting and so on.
The fourth part is mainly about the selection and processing of labor and output data, and estimates the elasticity of factor output. The labor input data is the number of employees, the data comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook, and the total output data also comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook. Gross domestic product (GDP) is converted to GDP at constant prices in 1978. Furthermore, the elasticity of factor output is estimated by our share method.
The fifth part mainly describes the process and result of estimating the capital service quantity.When estimating the capital input quantity,we first classify the assets into three categories and determine the service life of each type of assets.Age-efficiency function we choose hyperbolic model,and the exit function chooses the normal distribution function in the bell-shaped exit function. In stock selection, we directly use the calculation results of other scholars, combined with the total fixed capital formation data over the years, we can estimate the capital input of our country through PIM method, and finally get the capital service index we need.
The sixth part mainly describes the calculation of total factor productivity based on Solow residual method and the analysis of the estimated results. After obtaining the above data, we can get the growth of total factor productivity by subtracting the product of labor input growth rate and capital input growth rate and corresponding output elasticity. The analysis of the estimation results mainly focuses on the following three aspects: the fluctuation analysis of the growth rate of total factor productivity, the relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and economic growth, and the judgment and analysis of the mode of economic growth in China through the estimation results. Factor input (especially capital investment) and TFP are two driving forces.
The seventh part mainly talks about the measures and opinions to improve the total factor productivity, mainly including the following measures: strengthening the consciousness of independent innovation and policy support, improving the efficiency of resource allocation, continuing to deepen the reform of the market economic system, paying attention to the training of labor quality and implementing the strategy of strengthening the country with talents. The transformation of China's economic growth mode and the optimization of industrial structure will comprehensively enhance the total factor productivity, and ultimately make China's economy move towards sustainable development.
In the last part of the article, we summarize the shortcomings of this paper and the future research prospects. The shortcomings are mainly manifested in the processing of capital and labor input data and some more rigorous assumptions, such as the assumption of invariable returns to scale and the assumption of a perfectly competitive market. The former situation is difficult to achieve.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124
本文編號：2220032
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development momentum has been swift and violent, and has made remarkable achievements. The World Bank analysis report points out that China's economic growth rate and duration are rare in the long history of the world economy. But what kind of high growth is China's economic growth in the end? We can determine the contribution of each factor to economic growth, and then identify whether economic growth is input-based growth or efficiency-based growth, so as to determine the sustainability of economic growth. The contribution of each factor input to economic growth is compared with the contribution of total factor productivity growth to economic growth to further determine whether China's economic policy should be based on increasing aggregate demand or promoting technological progress and adjusting industrial structure. The development of the economy is of great importance.
At present, the methods of calculating total factor productivity can be divided into two categories: the first one is parametric method, which mainly includes Solow residual method, extended Solow residual method, stochastic frontier production function method (SFA), etc. The second one is non-parametric method, which mainly includes index method, data envelopment analysis (DEA), etc. This paper will adopt the Solow residual method proposed by OECD for developed countries, because this method is based on strict economic theory and mathematical deduction, and there is no logical error.
Although Solow residual method is a common method, scholars still have two controversial problems when they adopt this method. The first one is the calculation of labor input. When we calculate labor input, we directly use the concept of employment as labor input. OECD countries suggest to use the concept of labor hours to adjust the quality of labor input, but because of the lack of relevant statistical data in China, it is impossible to use this method at all. Another controversial issue is the measurement of capital input. We adopt the Capital Measurement Manual published in 2004 - on capital stock, fixed capital consumption and capital service measurement. The integrated PIM method proposed in the book is used to measure capital services rather than simply using the concept of fixed capital stock or fixed capital investment to measure total factor productivity.
The total factor productivity measurement includes the following contents:
The first part is to clarify the background and significance of this paper. The measurement of total factor productivity is of great reference value to the analysis of the source of economic growth and the formulation of relevant national economic policies.
In this part, we divide the current TFP research methods into two categories: parametric method and non-parametric method, and comment on the relevant literature of each research method. A generalized estimation method.
In the third part, we mainly elaborate on the measurement method of capital input. In the measurement of total factor productivity, the total output and labor input data are comparatively basic data, it is easy to obtain, the only more difficult is the measurement of capital input. According to the OECD's Capital Measurement Manual, this paper describes the integrated PIM method, including service life, age price function, exit function, user cost, Tornqvist index weighting and so on.
The fourth part is mainly about the selection and processing of labor and output data, and estimates the elasticity of factor output. The labor input data is the number of employees, the data comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook, and the total output data also comes from the calendar year's China Statistical Yearbook. Gross domestic product (GDP) is converted to GDP at constant prices in 1978. Furthermore, the elasticity of factor output is estimated by our share method.
The fifth part mainly describes the process and result of estimating the capital service quantity.When estimating the capital input quantity,we first classify the assets into three categories and determine the service life of each type of assets.Age-efficiency function we choose hyperbolic model,and the exit function chooses the normal distribution function in the bell-shaped exit function. In stock selection, we directly use the calculation results of other scholars, combined with the total fixed capital formation data over the years, we can estimate the capital input of our country through PIM method, and finally get the capital service index we need.
The sixth part mainly describes the calculation of total factor productivity based on Solow residual method and the analysis of the estimated results. After obtaining the above data, we can get the growth of total factor productivity by subtracting the product of labor input growth rate and capital input growth rate and corresponding output elasticity. The analysis of the estimation results mainly focuses on the following three aspects: the fluctuation analysis of the growth rate of total factor productivity, the relationship between the growth of total factor productivity and economic growth, and the judgment and analysis of the mode of economic growth in China through the estimation results. Factor input (especially capital investment) and TFP are two driving forces.
The seventh part mainly talks about the measures and opinions to improve the total factor productivity, mainly including the following measures: strengthening the consciousness of independent innovation and policy support, improving the efficiency of resource allocation, continuing to deepen the reform of the market economic system, paying attention to the training of labor quality and implementing the strategy of strengthening the country with talents. The transformation of China's economic growth mode and the optimization of industrial structure will comprehensively enhance the total factor productivity, and ultimately make China's economy move towards sustainable development.
In the last part of the article, we summarize the shortcomings of this paper and the future research prospects. The shortcomings are mainly manifested in the processing of capital and labor input data and some more rigorous assumptions, such as the assumption of invariable returns to scale and the assumption of a perfectly competitive market. The former situation is difficult to achieve.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124
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