上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長差異及趨同的實證分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-23 10:28
【摘要】：上海市己進(jìn)入建設(shè)“四個中心”和社會主義現(xiàn)代化國際大都市的關(guān)鍵時期,在這過程中,上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)又好又快發(fā)展則顯得至關(guān)重要。雖然自浦東開發(fā)開放以來,上海市的經(jīng)濟(jì)取得令人矚目的成就,但也面臨著資源環(huán)境約束、城鄉(xiāng)區(qū)域發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)性有待增強(qiáng)、收入分配差距較大等問題。因此,為了上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)又好又快發(fā)展,對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長差異及趨同研究則是非常具有理論價值與現(xiàn)實指導(dǎo)意義。 因此,本文以上海市為研究區(qū)域。首先,對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的現(xiàn)狀和上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平差異的特征進(jìn)行分析,并對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長進(jìn)行趨同檢驗；其次,利用修正后的Cobb-Douglas生產(chǎn)函數(shù)、C-D(Cobb-Douglas)生產(chǎn)函數(shù)的變化模型、VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)及方差分解等方法對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響因素進(jìn)行計量檢驗,以期對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的內(nèi)在邏輯和動力機(jī)制有更深的認(rèn)識；最后,總結(jié)前文主要研究結(jié)果,得出相應(yīng)的政策啟示,并對未來的研究做進(jìn)一步展望。 本文從以下幾部分展開研究： (1)研究起點。闡述本研究的現(xiàn)實背景和理論意義,并通過文獻(xiàn)綜述形式對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行回顧和評述,進(jìn)而確定本文的基本研究思路、方法和可能創(chuàng)新點。 (2)理論基礎(chǔ)。對新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論、新增長理論、增長極理論和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨同理論進(jìn)行應(yīng)用性探討,為本文奠定堅實的理論基礎(chǔ)。 (3)實證分析。主要從上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的現(xiàn)狀、上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平差異和上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨同三個維度,研究浦東開發(fā)開放以來上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的特點、區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的協(xié)調(diào)性以及發(fā)展趨勢(區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平差異是在擴(kuò)大還是縮小,在長期中,區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平是否存在趨同),并分析哪些因素是影響上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵因素。 (4)動力機(jī)制研究�；趯嵶C分析結(jié)果,從勞動、物質(zhì)資本、人力資本、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)以及對外開放的變化出發(fā),對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的動力機(jī)制進(jìn)行計量分析,并研究技術(shù)進(jìn)步、資本投入和勞動投入增長對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率,進(jìn)而對上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長類型進(jìn)行判斷。 (5)結(jié)論與展望�？偨Y(jié)本研究的主要結(jié)論,在此基礎(chǔ)上,為促進(jìn)上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)、共同發(fā)展,給出相應(yīng)的對策建議,并展望后續(xù)的研究方向。 文章的主要結(jié)論有： (1)上海市的經(jīng)濟(jì)實力不斷增強(qiáng)。上海市郊區(qū)的生產(chǎn)總值占上海市生產(chǎn)總值的比重在不斷上升,中心城區(qū)的生產(chǎn)總值占上海市生產(chǎn)總值的比重相對下降。上海市三次產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化。上海市的對外開放程度在不斷加深。對外貿(mào)易規(guī)模不斷變大,進(jìn)出口產(chǎn)品主要以機(jī)電產(chǎn)品與高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品為主,顯示出對外貿(mào)易的附加值較高。外商直接投資規(guī)模增長顯著,并主要集中在第三產(chǎn)業(yè)和獨資經(jīng)營方面。上海市的跨國公司的地區(qū)總部、投資性公司和外資研發(fā)中心明顯增多,總部經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新、產(chǎn)業(yè)集群更加顯著。 (2)上海市17個區(qū)縣經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的絕對差異在擴(kuò)大,而其相對差異呈下降趨勢。利用Theil系數(shù)和加權(quán)變異系數(shù)等方法研究發(fā)現(xiàn),上海市17個區(qū)縣經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的總體差異在縮小。上海市17個區(qū)縣總體上存在δ-趨同、絕對β-趨同和條件β-趨同,有先趨異后趨同的特點。上海市中心城區(qū)不存在俱樂部趨同現(xiàn)象。上海市郊區(qū)存在俱樂部趨同現(xiàn)象且其趨同速度為每年1.82%。 (3)技術(shù)進(jìn)步對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率最高,其次是資本對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率,勞動對上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率相對偏低。上海市區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長類型是集約型增長方式。勞動、物質(zhì)資本、人力資本、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和對外開放度是影響上海市經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的五大主要因子,另外,上海市的生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)與勞動、物質(zhì)資本、人力資本、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和對外開放度之間是具有長期的均衡關(guān)系。Granger因果關(guān)系檢驗顯示,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會促進(jìn)物質(zhì)資本的積累；對外開放既可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長,又可以促進(jìn)物質(zhì)資本的積累；勞動可以促進(jìn)人力資本的進(jìn)步。
[Abstract]:Shanghai has entered the critical period of building the "four centers" and the socialist modern international metropolis. In this process, the sound and rapid development of Shanghai's economy is of vital importance. Therefore, in order to develop Shanghai's economy well and rapidly, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the regional economic growth differences and convergence in Shanghai.
Therefore, this paper takes Shanghai as the research area. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of regional economic growth in Shanghai and the characteristics of regional economic development level differences in Shanghai, and tests the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Secondly, it uses the modified Cobb-Douglas production function and the C-D (Cobb-Douglas) production function change model. VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test the influencing factors of regional economic growth in Shanghai in order to have a deeper understanding of the internal logic and dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Finally, the main results of the previous study are summarized, and the corresponding policy implications are drawn, and future research is carried out. One step ahead.
The following parts are studied in this paper.
(1) The starting point of the study. The realistic background and theoretical significance of this study are expounded. The research status at home and abroad is reviewed and commented through literature review, and then the basic research ideas, methods and possible innovations are determined.
(2) Theoretical basis. The application of neoclassical economic growth theory, new growth theory, growth pole theory and economic growth convergence theory will lay a solid theoretical foundation for this paper.
(3) Empirical analysis. This paper mainly studies the characteristics of Shanghai regional economic growth, the coordination of regional economic growth and the development trend (the difference of regional economic development level is expanding) since the development and opening up of Pudong from three dimensions: the present situation of Shanghai's economic growth, the difference of regional economic development level and the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Large or small, in the long run, whether there is convergence in the level of regional economic development, and analyze which factors are the key factors affecting the growth of regional economy in Shanghai.
(4) Research on the dynamic mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai from the perspective of labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and the changes of opening to the outside world, and studies the contribution rate of technological progress, capital input and labor input growth to the regional economic growth in Shanghai, and then on. The type of economic growth in Shanghai is judged.
(5) Conclusion and outlook. Summarize the main conclusions of this study, on this basis, in order to promote regional economic coordination and common development in Shanghai, give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, and look forward to the follow-up research direction.
The main conclusions of the article are as follows:
(1) Shanghai's economic strength has been continuously strengthened. The ratio of the total production value of the suburbs of Shanghai to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has been rising. The ratio of the total production value of the central urban area to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has declined relatively. The three industrial structures of Shanghai have been optimized continuously. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased significantly, mainly in the tertiary industry and sole proprietorship. Economic, technological innovation and industrial clusters are more significant.
(2) The absolute difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is expanding, while the relative difference is decreasing. The overall difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is narrowing by using Theil coefficient and weighted variation coefficient. There are delta-convergence, absolute beta-convergence and conditional beta-convergence in 17 districts and counties in Shanghai. There is no club convergence in the downtown area of Shanghai. Club convergence exists in the suburbs of Shanghai and the convergence rate is 1.82% per year.
(3) The contribution rate of technological progress to Shanghai's regional economic growth is the highest, followed by the contribution rate of capital to Shanghai's regional economic growth, and the contribution rate of labor to Shanghai's regional economic growth is relatively low. In addition, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and openness. Granger causality test shows that economic growth will promote the accumulation of material capital; opening to the outside world can promote the accumulation of material capital. Economic growth can also promote the accumulation of material capital, and labor can promote the progress of human capital.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127
本文編號：2198798
[Abstract]:Shanghai has entered the critical period of building the "four centers" and the socialist modern international metropolis. In this process, the sound and rapid development of Shanghai's economy is of vital importance. Therefore, in order to develop Shanghai's economy well and rapidly, it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the regional economic growth differences and convergence in Shanghai.
Therefore, this paper takes Shanghai as the research area. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of regional economic growth in Shanghai and the characteristics of regional economic development level differences in Shanghai, and tests the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Secondly, it uses the modified Cobb-Douglas production function and the C-D (Cobb-Douglas) production function change model. VAR model, impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test the influencing factors of regional economic growth in Shanghai in order to have a deeper understanding of the internal logic and dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Finally, the main results of the previous study are summarized, and the corresponding policy implications are drawn, and future research is carried out. One step ahead.
The following parts are studied in this paper.
(1) The starting point of the study. The realistic background and theoretical significance of this study are expounded. The research status at home and abroad is reviewed and commented through literature review, and then the basic research ideas, methods and possible innovations are determined.
(2) Theoretical basis. The application of neoclassical economic growth theory, new growth theory, growth pole theory and economic growth convergence theory will lay a solid theoretical foundation for this paper.
(3) Empirical analysis. This paper mainly studies the characteristics of Shanghai regional economic growth, the coordination of regional economic growth and the development trend (the difference of regional economic development level is expanding) since the development and opening up of Pudong from three dimensions: the present situation of Shanghai's economic growth, the difference of regional economic development level and the convergence of regional economic growth in Shanghai. Large or small, in the long run, whether there is convergence in the level of regional economic development, and analyze which factors are the key factors affecting the growth of regional economy in Shanghai.
(4) Research on the dynamic mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, this paper makes a quantitative analysis of the dynamic mechanism of regional economic growth in Shanghai from the perspective of labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and the changes of opening to the outside world, and studies the contribution rate of technological progress, capital input and labor input growth to the regional economic growth in Shanghai, and then on. The type of economic growth in Shanghai is judged.
(5) Conclusion and outlook. Summarize the main conclusions of this study, on this basis, in order to promote regional economic coordination and common development in Shanghai, give the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, and look forward to the follow-up research direction.
The main conclusions of the article are as follows:
(1) Shanghai's economic strength has been continuously strengthened. The ratio of the total production value of the suburbs of Shanghai to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has been rising. The ratio of the total production value of the central urban area to the gross domestic product of Shanghai has declined relatively. The three industrial structures of Shanghai have been optimized continuously. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased significantly, mainly in the tertiary industry and sole proprietorship. Economic, technological innovation and industrial clusters are more significant.
(2) The absolute difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is expanding, while the relative difference is decreasing. The overall difference of the economic development level of 17 districts and counties in Shanghai is narrowing by using Theil coefficient and weighted variation coefficient. There are delta-convergence, absolute beta-convergence and conditional beta-convergence in 17 districts and counties in Shanghai. There is no club convergence in the downtown area of Shanghai. Club convergence exists in the suburbs of Shanghai and the convergence rate is 1.82% per year.
(3) The contribution rate of technological progress to Shanghai's regional economic growth is the highest, followed by the contribution rate of capital to Shanghai's regional economic growth, and the contribution rate of labor to Shanghai's regional economic growth is relatively low. In addition, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between GDP and labor, material capital, human capital, industrial structure and openness. Granger causality test shows that economic growth will promote the accumulation of material capital; opening to the outside world can promote the accumulation of material capital. Economic growth can also promote the accumulation of material capital, and labor can promote the progress of human capital.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127
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