廣東省區(qū)域碳預(yù)算方案研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-16 14:52
【摘要】：我國政府在哥本哈根會議上作出爭取到2020年單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放比2005年有顯著下降，“十二五”期間單位GDP的碳排放應(yīng)比2005年下降25%-30%的承諾，為了完成這項(xiàng)任務(wù)，對于各個省份的減排節(jié)能都有了新的要求。廣東省是我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)省，同時也是能源消耗和碳排放的大省，為了完成廣東省“十二五”規(guī)劃所制定的任務(wù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)到2015年單位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降35%左右，到2020年全省單位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降45%以上的任務(wù)，迫切需要對全省各區(qū)域的碳排放量現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行總結(jié)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上，建立全省范圍內(nèi)的區(qū)域碳預(yù)算方案。 本文主要采用經(jīng)濟(jì)計(jì)量分析、情景分析等實(shí)證研究方法，計(jì)算了廣東省及各區(qū)域的碳排放量，，總結(jié)出廣東省碳排放量分配的原則，并且探討了符合實(shí)際的碳預(yù)算方案，本文所得出的主要結(jié)論有： 第一，運(yùn)用凈碳排放量的計(jì)算公式，綜合考慮能源消費(fèi)、水泥生產(chǎn)和森林碳匯等多方面影響因素，得到從2000年至2010年十一年間廣東省及四個主要區(qū)域的凈碳排放量，并分析了各區(qū)域碳排放的特征。 第二，通過對比歸納國內(nèi)外相關(guān)經(jīng)驗(yàn)，總結(jié)出碳預(yù)算方案制定的主要原則有人均公平、歷史責(zé)任、支付能力和可持續(xù)發(fā)展等幾方面，并將這些原則運(yùn)用到制定廣東省碳預(yù)算方案中。 第三，運(yùn)用情景分析方法預(yù)測能源消費(fèi)碳排放量，運(yùn)用城市化預(yù)測模型預(yù)測水泥生產(chǎn)碳排放量，運(yùn)用FIX模型預(yù)測森林碳匯，最終得到2010年至2030年未來二十年間廣東省的凈碳排放量預(yù)測值。 第四，根據(jù)人均公平和歷史責(zé)任原則分配廣東省各區(qū)域的碳預(yù)算初始配額，再利用轉(zhuǎn)移支付和碳排放交易市場的方式對碳預(yù)算進(jìn)行再分配，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)廣東省各區(qū)域之間碳預(yù)算的平衡，并且對碳預(yù)算方案的可行性進(jìn)行探討。
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen Conference, our government made a commitment that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 2020 will be significantly lower than in 2005, and that carbon emissions per unit of GDP should be reduced by 25% to 30% in the twelfth five-year plan period, in order to accomplish this task. There are new requirements for reducing emissions and saving energy in various provinces. Guangdong Province is a strong economic province in China, as well as a major province of energy consumption and carbon emissions. In order to fulfill the tasks laid down in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Guangdong Province, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be about 35% lower by 2015 than in 2005. By 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP in the whole province is more than 45% lower than that in 2005. It is urgent to sum up the current situation of carbon emissions in all regions of the province, and on this basis, to establish a regional carbon budget plan for the whole province. In this paper, econometric analysis, scenario analysis and other empirical research methods are used to calculate the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and its regions, summarize the principles of carbon emissions distribution in Guangdong Province, and discuss the actual carbon budget scheme. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, using the calculation formula of net carbon emissions, considering the energy consumption, cement production and forest carbon sinks and other factors, The net carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and four major regions from 2000 to 2010 were obtained, and the characteristics of carbon emissions in each region were analyzed. Secondly, by comparing and summarizing the relevant experiences at home and abroad, we conclude that the main principles of carbon budget formulation are per capita equity, historical responsibility, ability to pay and sustainable development. And apply these principles to the formulation of Guangdong Province carbon budget plan. Thirdly, using scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions from energy consumption, using urbanization forecasting model to predict carbon emissions from cement production, and using FIX model to predict forest carbon sinks. The net carbon emissions forecast for Guangdong Province for the next 20 years from 2010 to 2030 was finally obtained. Fourthly, according to the principle of per capita equity and historical responsibility, the initial carbon budget quota should be allocated in various regions of Guangdong Province, and the carbon budget should be reallocated by means of transfer payments and carbon emissions trading market. Finally, the balance of carbon budget among different regions in Guangdong Province is realized, and the feasibility of carbon budget plan is discussed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F205
本文編號：2186311
[Abstract]:At the Copenhagen Conference, our government made a commitment that carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 2020 will be significantly lower than in 2005, and that carbon emissions per unit of GDP should be reduced by 25% to 30% in the twelfth five-year plan period, in order to accomplish this task. There are new requirements for reducing emissions and saving energy in various provinces. Guangdong Province is a strong economic province in China, as well as a major province of energy consumption and carbon emissions. In order to fulfill the tasks laid down in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Guangdong Province, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be about 35% lower by 2015 than in 2005. By 2020, the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP in the whole province is more than 45% lower than that in 2005. It is urgent to sum up the current situation of carbon emissions in all regions of the province, and on this basis, to establish a regional carbon budget plan for the whole province. In this paper, econometric analysis, scenario analysis and other empirical research methods are used to calculate the carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and its regions, summarize the principles of carbon emissions distribution in Guangdong Province, and discuss the actual carbon budget scheme. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, using the calculation formula of net carbon emissions, considering the energy consumption, cement production and forest carbon sinks and other factors, The net carbon emissions of Guangdong Province and four major regions from 2000 to 2010 were obtained, and the characteristics of carbon emissions in each region were analyzed. Secondly, by comparing and summarizing the relevant experiences at home and abroad, we conclude that the main principles of carbon budget formulation are per capita equity, historical responsibility, ability to pay and sustainable development. And apply these principles to the formulation of Guangdong Province carbon budget plan. Thirdly, using scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions from energy consumption, using urbanization forecasting model to predict carbon emissions from cement production, and using FIX model to predict forest carbon sinks. The net carbon emissions forecast for Guangdong Province for the next 20 years from 2010 to 2030 was finally obtained. Fourthly, according to the principle of per capita equity and historical responsibility, the initial carbon budget quota should be allocated in various regions of Guangdong Province, and the carbon budget should be reallocated by means of transfer payments and carbon emissions trading market. Finally, the balance of carbon budget among different regions in Guangdong Province is realized, and the feasibility of carbon budget plan is discussed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F205
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