【摘要】：近年來，隨著依靠投資驅(qū)動、出口貿(mào)易拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式的不可持續(xù)，消費(fèi)作為拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的巨大動力，自然是研究經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要方向。同時(shí)由于我國各區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡，尤其是東、中、西部地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)差異非常顯著。這對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速的發(fā)展和社會的穩(wěn)定有不利的影響，所以研究消費(fèi)對我國東、中、西部經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的差異，以及東、中、西部消費(fèi)不同的原因，將有助于使各地區(qū)結(jié)合自身特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行有針對性的宏觀調(diào)控，更好地科學(xué)引導(dǎo)消費(fèi)、優(yōu)化經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)，解決我國各區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展不平衡的問題。眾多學(xué)者研究消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系是針對全國整體狀況進(jìn)行分析，區(qū)域差異性研究較少，所采用的方法多為單方程分析法、結(jié)構(gòu)性聯(lián)立方程法以及向量自回歸分析法等，本文采用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型方法，從整體和區(qū)域分別來研究消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系，是一種新方法的嘗試，進(jìn)一步完善了消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的理論，豐富了相關(guān)的實(shí)證研究方法。 本文理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合，從以下三個(gè)不同方面來建立消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，首先利用1992-2010年全國29個(gè)省（市，自治區(qū)）的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)，構(gòu)建了消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，運(yùn)用極大似然估計(jì)方法對其進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。模型分析結(jié)果表明：消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的路徑系數(shù)都為正值，說明消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長有明顯的促進(jìn)作用，給出了不同消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促進(jìn)的不同程度。其次分別建立東、中、西部消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，經(jīng)過模型分析與檢驗(yàn)，直接或間接得出各區(qū)域消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有促進(jìn)作用的結(jié)論，將三個(gè)模型進(jìn)行對比，分析不同區(qū)域同種消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促進(jìn)作用的差異性，找出產(chǎn)生這種差異性的原因。最后以中部地區(qū)為代表建立中部城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長關(guān)系的結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型，，經(jīng)過模型分析與檢驗(yàn)，得出城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長作用的差異程度，并分析產(chǎn)生差異的原因。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of investment and the unsustainable export trade, consumption, as a huge driving force of economic growth, is naturally an important direction in the research of economic growth. At the same time, because of the imbalance of economic development in different regions of China, especially in the east, middle and west regions, the economic differences are very significant. This has a negative impact on the rapid economic development and social stability of our country, so we study the differences in the economic impact of consumption on the east, middle and west of China, and the reasons for the differences in consumption in the east, the middle and the west. It will be helpful for all regions to carry out targeted macro-control according to their own characteristics, to guide consumption scientifically, to optimize economic structure and to solve the problem of unbalanced economic development in various regions of our country. Many scholars study the relationship between consumption and economic growth is to analyze the overall situation of the country, regional differences are less, most of the methods used are single equation analysis, structural simultaneous equation method and vector autoregressive analysis, etc. This paper uses the structural equation model method to study the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the whole and the region respectively. It is a new method to further improve the theory of the relationship between consumption and economic growth and enrich the relevant empirical research methods. Combining theory with practice, this paper establishes the structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth from the following three different aspects. Firstly, we use the provincial panel data of 29 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 1992 to 2010. The structural equation model of the relationship between consumption and economic growth is constructed, and the empirical analysis is carried out by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The results of the model analysis show that the path coefficients between consumption and economic growth are both positive, which indicates that consumption has an obvious promoting effect on economic growth, and gives different degrees of different consumption to promote economic growth. Secondly, the structural equation models of the relationship between consumption and economic growth in the east, middle and west regions are established respectively. Through model analysis and test, the conclusion that consumption in various regions can promote economic growth is drawn directly or indirectly, and the three models are compared. This paper analyzes the differences of the same kind of consumption to promote economic growth in different regions and finds out the reasons for the differences. Finally, the structural equation model of the relationship between urban and rural residents' consumption and economic growth in central China is established. Through the analysis and test of the model, the degree of difference between urban and rural residents' consumption on economic growth is obtained, and the reasons for the difference are analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F126.1;F224

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