【摘要】：中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)正處在重要的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型期,要實(shí)現(xiàn)碳減排的目標(biāo),確保經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)發(fā)展,必須轉(zhuǎn)變依靠高能源消耗為拉動(dòng)力的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式。運(yùn)用跨時(shí)間的省域面板數(shù)據(jù),測(cè)算碳排放約束情況下不同要素對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用,一是計(jì)量我國(guó)不同省(區(qū)、市)能源消耗(碳排放)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)作用;二是在碳減排約束下,以保持現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度為目標(biāo),測(cè)算消費(fèi)、出口替代碳排放對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)拉動(dòng)作用的可能性。研究表明,可通過(guò)拉動(dòng)消費(fèi)年均多增長(zhǎng)1%的方式化解實(shí)現(xiàn)年均減排3%二氧化碳的目標(biāo)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的負(fù)影響,以實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定增長(zhǎng)和碳減排的雙重目標(biāo)。
[Abstract]:China's economy is in an important strategic transition period. In order to achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions and ensure the long-term sustainable development of the economy, it is necessary to change the mode of economic development that relies on high energy consumption as a pull force. Based on the cross-time provincial panel data, this paper measures the pulling effect of different factors on economic growth under the condition of carbon emission constraint. The first is to measure the pulling effect of energy consumption (carbon emission) on economic growth in different provinces (regions and cities) of our country. Second, under the restriction of carbon emission reduction, the possibility of consumption and export replacing carbon emissions as the driving force of economic growth is calculated with the aim of maintaining the existing economic growth rate. The research shows that the negative impact of achieving the target of reducing carbon dioxide by 3% per year on economic growth can be resolved by pulling the average annual increase of consumption by 1%, in order to achieve the dual goal of stable economic growth and carbon abatement.
【作者單位】： 山東財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)公共管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：山東省軟科學(xué)一般項(xiàng)目“‘黃三角’低碳生態(tài)城市建設(shè)動(dòng)力機(jī)制及合作治理框架研究”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):2013RKB01448) 山東省高校人文社科項(xiàng)目“基于要素整合的低碳生態(tài)城市建設(shè)評(píng)價(jià)研究——以山東半島藍(lán)色經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)為例”(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):J13WG79)的部分成果
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127

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