宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-08 15:16
【摘要】：能源（Energy）、環(huán)境（Environment）、經(jīng)濟(jì)（Economy）構(gòu)成的復(fù)合系統(tǒng)（3E系統(tǒng)）與人類(lèi)的生產(chǎn)、生活密切相關(guān)。實(shí)現(xiàn)能源、環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展不但是人類(lèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的根本保證，也是緩解能源危機(jī)和環(huán)境污染的有效途徑。宜興市地處江蘇省南端，滬、寧、杭三角中心，是一個(gè)經(jīng)貿(mào)發(fā)達(dá)的工業(yè)基地。2010年，宜興市在縣域經(jīng)濟(jì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力排名中躍居全國(guó)第9位，全市地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值突破800億。宜興市正本著“最適合人居、環(huán)境最好、發(fā)展最協(xié)調(diào)”的理念致力于推動(dòng)其轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展。但目前，影響宜興經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不確定因素不斷增加，能源消費(fèi)、環(huán)境保護(hù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的矛盾日趨凸顯。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化成為迫切需要解決的問(wèn)題。因此，對(duì)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化問(wèn)題進(jìn)行研究，并在此基礎(chǔ)上對(duì)宜興市的3E系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行組織調(diào)控，使系統(tǒng)從無(wú)序轉(zhuǎn)換到有序，達(dá)到協(xié)同的狀態(tài)，促進(jìn)宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化，具有重要的理論價(jià)值和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本研究旨在通過(guò)對(duì)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化研究，明晰宜興市3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，測(cè)度宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平，剖析宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化歷程，掌握宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演化規(guī)律，構(gòu)建基于3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型，提出宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化方案。以期豐富區(qū)域3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展理論，完善產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化理論，為宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整提供了指導(dǎo)，為探索和制定有利于能源、環(huán)境與經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化戰(zhàn)略與政策提供依據(jù)。論文主要研究成果與內(nèi)容如下： （1）分析了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展與產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀。通過(guò)橫向與縱向?qū)Ρ确治�，找出了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)發(fā)展中存在的問(wèn)題和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題。 （2）建立了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平測(cè)度與預(yù)警模型體系，并對(duì)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行了測(cè)度與預(yù)警分析。設(shè)計(jì)出宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系，利用主成分分析法測(cè)度了宜興市能源、環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)子系統(tǒng)的綜合發(fā)展水平，，根據(jù)各個(gè)子系統(tǒng)的綜合發(fā)展水平變化率，構(gòu)造兩兩子系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展測(cè)度函數(shù)，并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平測(cè)度模型，利用該模型對(duì)宜興市近年來(lái)3E系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行了測(cè)度，結(jié)果表明：2005-2009年期間宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平不斷提高。構(gòu)建了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展水平預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系，運(yùn)用AHP法確定了預(yù)警指標(biāo)的權(quán)重，基于向量夾角的思想構(gòu)建了宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展警度測(cè)度模型，并利用該模型對(duì)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展進(jìn)行了預(yù)警分析，結(jié)果表明：2005-2009年期間宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的警度值呈不斷下降趨勢(shì)。 （3）剖析了宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)過(guò)程及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)與3E系統(tǒng)的關(guān)聯(lián)性。通過(guò)對(duì)改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)歷程的分析，掌握了宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)過(guò)程中的階段性特征和演進(jìn)規(guī)律。構(gòu)建了基于小波分解的GM(1,1)模型，并利用該模型對(duì)宜興市三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，為探析宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)演進(jìn)趨勢(shì)和建立產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型奠定了基礎(chǔ)。利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析技術(shù)建立了宜興市三次產(chǎn)業(yè)與能源系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境系統(tǒng)之間的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)分析模型，重點(diǎn)分析了宜興市三次產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)值與能源類(lèi)、環(huán)境類(lèi)主要指標(biāo)之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)性。 （4）構(gòu)建了基于3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展約束的宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型，并提出了宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化方案。從資源配置最優(yōu)化、經(jīng)濟(jì)效益最大化、3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展三個(gè)維度出發(fā)明確了宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的目標(biāo)。分析了能源、勞動(dòng)力、固定資產(chǎn)投資、土地、環(huán)境等因素對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響，并確立產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的約束條件。在產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化目標(biāo)與約束條件分析的基礎(chǔ)上，基于灰色動(dòng)態(tài)規(guī)劃模型建立了宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化模型，采用灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)規(guī)劃模型的主要指標(biāo)值進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)分析，應(yīng)用SPSS軟件計(jì)算出宜興市“十二五”期間產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化方案，優(yōu)化結(jié)果表明：按照3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展理念，對(duì)宜興市產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行調(diào)整，宜興市三次產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值結(jié)構(gòu)可以從2010年的4.5∶55.5∶40調(diào)整為2015年的3.85:47.1:49.05。 （5）提出了促進(jìn)宜興市3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的對(duì)策：1）建立高效的節(jié)能管理體系，強(qiáng)化能源節(jié)約管理；2）加強(qiáng)生態(tài)建設(shè)與環(huán)境保護(hù)，提高環(huán)保工作水平；3）建立3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的政策保障體系與調(diào)控機(jī)制，推動(dòng)3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展；4）促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:Energy (Energy), environment (Environment), and economic (Economy) composite system (3E system) is closely related to human production and life. The coordinated development of energy, environment and economic system is not only the fundamental guarantee of the human economy and the sustainable development of the society, but also an effective way to alleviate the energy crisis and environmental pollution. Yixing is located in the river. The south end of Jiangsu Province, Shanghai, Ningxia, Hangzhou triangle center, is an economic and Trade Industrial Base.2010 year, Yixing city in the county economic competitiveness ranking ranked ninth in the country, the whole city area of 80 billion. The city of Yixing is the "most suitable for human living, the best environment, the most coordinated development" to promote its transformation and development. But at present, The uncertain factors affecting the economic development of Yixing are increasing, the contradiction between the energy consumption, the environmental protection and the economic growth is becoming increasingly prominent. How to realize the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the continuous optimization of the industrial structure has become an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of the industrial structure On the basis of this study, the 3E system in Yixing is organized and regulated to make the system from disorder to order, to reach the state of coordination and to promote the further optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
The purpose of this study is to study the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of industrial structure, to clarify the status of the development of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to analyze the evolution process of the industrial structure in Yixing, to master the evolution law of the industrial structure in Yixing and to construct an optimization model of the industrial structure based on the coordinated development of the 3E system. In order to enrich the theory of the coordinated development of regional 3E system, improve the theory of industrial structure optimization, provide guidance for the adjustment of industrial structure in Yixing, and provide the basis for the exploration and formulation of the coordinated development of energy, environment and economy and the optimization strategy and policy of industrial structure. The results and contents are as follows:
(1) the present situation of the coordinated development of the 3E system and the development of industrial structure in Yixing is analyzed. The problems existing in the development of the 3E system in the Yixing city and the existing problems in the process of the industrial structure evolution are found through the horizontal and vertical comparison and analysis.
(2) the measurement and early warning model system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is set up, and the measurement and early warning analysis of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing is analyzed. The measurement index system of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in Yixing is designed, and the comprehensive development water of the energy, environment and economic subsystem of Yixing is measured by the principal component analysis method. According to the comprehensive development level change rate of each subsystem, the measure function of the coordinated development of the 22 subsystem is constructed, and based on this, the measurement model of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is put forward. The model is used to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in recent years in Yixing. The result shows that Yixing is in the period of the period of 2005-2009 years. The coordinated development level of the city 3E system has been continuously improved. The early warning index system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is constructed. The weight of the early warning index is determined by the AHP method. Based on the idea of the vector angle, the coordinated development of the alarm degree of the Yixing city 3E system is constructed, and the model type is used to make the early warning of the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing. The results show that the warning degree of coordinated development of 3E system in Yixing has been decreasing for 2005-2009 years.
(3) the evolution process of industrial structure and the relationship between industrial structure and 3E system are analyzed. Through the analysis of the evolution process of the industrial structure of Yixing since the reform and opening up, the stage characteristics and evolution rules of the industrial structure in Yixing are mastered. The GM (1,1) model based on the wavelet decomposition is constructed, and the model is used for the development of the industrial structure. The change trend of the three industries in Yixing is predicted, which lays the foundation for the analysis of the industrial structure evolution trend and the establishment of the industrial structure optimization model in Yixing. The dynamic correlation analysis model between the three industrial and energy systems and the environmental systems in Yixing is established by using the grey relational analysis technology, and the three production in Yixing is emphatically analyzed. The intrinsic correlation between the output value of the industry and the main indicators of energy and environment.
(4) the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing city based on coordinated development constraints is constructed, and the industrial structure optimization scheme of Yixing is put forward. From the three dimensions of the optimization of the resource allocation, the maximum economic benefit and the coordinated development of the 3E system, the objective of the optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing is defined. The energy, labor, and fixed assets investment are analyzed. The influence of the factors such as capital, land and environment on industrial structure and the constraints of industrial structure optimization are established. Based on the analysis of the objective and constraint conditions of the industrial structure optimization, the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing is established based on the grey dynamic programming model. The grey pretest model is used to preview the main index values of the planning model. The SPSS software was used to calculate the industrial structure optimization program of Yixing in 12th Five-Year. The optimization results showed that the industrial structure of Yixing was adjusted according to the coordinated development concept of 3E system. The three industrial output value structure of Yixing could be adjusted from 4.5 to 55.5 to 40 in 2015 to 3.85:47.1:49.05. in 2015.
(5) the countermeasures are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and promote the optimization of the industrial structure. 1) establishing efficient energy saving management system, strengthening energy conservation management; 2) strengthening the ecological construction and environmental protection, improving the environmental protection work level; 3) establishing the policy guarantee system and regulation mechanism for the coordinated development of the 3E system, and promoting the coordination of the 3E system. Development; 4) promote industrial structure optimization and promote economic transformation and upgrading.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F426.2;X22
本文編號(hào)：2172181
[Abstract]:Energy (Energy), environment (Environment), and economic (Economy) composite system (3E system) is closely related to human production and life. The coordinated development of energy, environment and economic system is not only the fundamental guarantee of the human economy and the sustainable development of the society, but also an effective way to alleviate the energy crisis and environmental pollution. Yixing is located in the river. The south end of Jiangsu Province, Shanghai, Ningxia, Hangzhou triangle center, is an economic and Trade Industrial Base.2010 year, Yixing city in the county economic competitiveness ranking ranked ninth in the country, the whole city area of 80 billion. The city of Yixing is the "most suitable for human living, the best environment, the most coordinated development" to promote its transformation and development. But at present, The uncertain factors affecting the economic development of Yixing are increasing, the contradiction between the energy consumption, the environmental protection and the economic growth is becoming increasingly prominent. How to realize the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the continuous optimization of the industrial structure has become an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of the industrial structure On the basis of this study, the 3E system in Yixing is organized and regulated to make the system from disorder to order, to reach the state of coordination and to promote the further optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing, which has important theoretical and practical significance.
The purpose of this study is to study the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and the optimization of industrial structure, to clarify the status of the development of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing, to analyze the evolution process of the industrial structure in Yixing, to master the evolution law of the industrial structure in Yixing and to construct an optimization model of the industrial structure based on the coordinated development of the 3E system. In order to enrich the theory of the coordinated development of regional 3E system, improve the theory of industrial structure optimization, provide guidance for the adjustment of industrial structure in Yixing, and provide the basis for the exploration and formulation of the coordinated development of energy, environment and economy and the optimization strategy and policy of industrial structure. The results and contents are as follows:
(1) the present situation of the coordinated development of the 3E system and the development of industrial structure in Yixing is analyzed. The problems existing in the development of the 3E system in the Yixing city and the existing problems in the process of the industrial structure evolution are found through the horizontal and vertical comparison and analysis.
(2) the measurement and early warning model system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is set up, and the measurement and early warning analysis of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in the city of Yixing is analyzed. The measurement index system of the coordinated development level of the 3E system in Yixing is designed, and the comprehensive development water of the energy, environment and economic subsystem of Yixing is measured by the principal component analysis method. According to the comprehensive development level change rate of each subsystem, the measure function of the coordinated development of the 22 subsystem is constructed, and based on this, the measurement model of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is put forward. The model is used to measure the coordinated development level of the 3E system in recent years in Yixing. The result shows that Yixing is in the period of the period of 2005-2009 years. The coordinated development level of the city 3E system has been continuously improved. The early warning index system of the coordinated development level of the Yixing 3E system is constructed. The weight of the early warning index is determined by the AHP method. Based on the idea of the vector angle, the coordinated development of the alarm degree of the Yixing city 3E system is constructed, and the model type is used to make the early warning of the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing. The results show that the warning degree of coordinated development of 3E system in Yixing has been decreasing for 2005-2009 years.
(3) the evolution process of industrial structure and the relationship between industrial structure and 3E system are analyzed. Through the analysis of the evolution process of the industrial structure of Yixing since the reform and opening up, the stage characteristics and evolution rules of the industrial structure in Yixing are mastered. The GM (1,1) model based on the wavelet decomposition is constructed, and the model is used for the development of the industrial structure. The change trend of the three industries in Yixing is predicted, which lays the foundation for the analysis of the industrial structure evolution trend and the establishment of the industrial structure optimization model in Yixing. The dynamic correlation analysis model between the three industrial and energy systems and the environmental systems in Yixing is established by using the grey relational analysis technology, and the three production in Yixing is emphatically analyzed. The intrinsic correlation between the output value of the industry and the main indicators of energy and environment.
(4) the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing city based on coordinated development constraints is constructed, and the industrial structure optimization scheme of Yixing is put forward. From the three dimensions of the optimization of the resource allocation, the maximum economic benefit and the coordinated development of the 3E system, the objective of the optimization of the industrial structure of Yixing is defined. The energy, labor, and fixed assets investment are analyzed. The influence of the factors such as capital, land and environment on industrial structure and the constraints of industrial structure optimization are established. Based on the analysis of the objective and constraint conditions of the industrial structure optimization, the industrial structure optimization model of Yixing is established based on the grey dynamic programming model. The grey pretest model is used to preview the main index values of the planning model. The SPSS software was used to calculate the industrial structure optimization program of Yixing in 12th Five-Year. The optimization results showed that the industrial structure of Yixing was adjusted according to the coordinated development concept of 3E system. The three industrial output value structure of Yixing could be adjusted from 4.5 to 55.5 to 40 in 2015 to 3.85:47.1:49.05. in 2015.
(5) the countermeasures are put forward to promote the coordinated development of the 3E system in Yixing and promote the optimization of the industrial structure. 1) establishing efficient energy saving management system, strengthening energy conservation management; 2) strengthening the ecological construction and environmental protection, improving the environmental protection work level; 3) establishing the policy guarantee system and regulation mechanism for the coordinated development of the 3E system, and promoting the coordination of the 3E system. Development; 4) promote industrial structure optimization and promote economic transformation and upgrading.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京航空航天大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;F426.2;X22
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