【摘要】：一個國家或地區(qū)的發(fā)展歷程,總是伴隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)的持續(xù)升級和技術(shù)的不斷進(jìn)步。經(jīng)濟(jì)活動以及經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的產(chǎn)生源于資源的稀缺有限,而產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的目的,正是為了適應(yīng)本地稀缺生產(chǎn)要素的結(jié)構(gòu),從而更好的促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。改革開放三十多年來,計劃經(jīng)濟(jì)向市場經(jīng)濟(jì)的轉(zhuǎn)變,顯示出巨大的潛能與優(yōu)勢,浙江也順勢在全國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中屢創(chuàng)奇跡。這一階段,包括農(nóng)村承包責(zé)任制全面鋪展,工業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整與優(yōu)化,個體私營經(jīng)濟(jì)從無到有,鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)集體企業(yè)蓬勃興起等一系列產(chǎn)業(yè)政策調(diào)整,均有效地刺激了省域經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。 2008年全球金融危機(jī),給嚴(yán)重依賴國際市場的中國制造業(yè)帶來重創(chuàng),浙江也未能幸免。隨之而來的后全球化時代,宣告依賴外資、外貿(mào)的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)模式已難以為繼,人口紅利耗盡,而原有的國際分工格局卻尚未打破。特別是,在東部沿海地區(qū),勞動力稟賦逐步消失,資本和技術(shù)成為新的增長動力。在此條件下,浙江產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,再一次面臨國內(nèi)現(xiàn)實與國際環(huán)境的雙重挑戰(zhàn)。 本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),改革開放三十多年來,總體分析,浙江省技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的帶動作用,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過資本和勞動力。然而,資本的投入程度卻一直高于技術(shù)要素的投入。另外,勞動力投入產(chǎn)出特征不明顯,但從實證研究結(jié)果來看,勞動力產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于資本產(chǎn)出彈性系數(shù),由此推測仍保持著勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長特征。從回歸結(jié)果來看,技術(shù)進(jìn)步對浙江省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn),從1992國際經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)后開始下降。其根本原因是,改革開放初期引進(jìn)的先進(jìn)技術(shù)與設(shè)備,經(jīng)過一段時期的適應(yīng)和發(fā)展后,對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)揮的強(qiáng)勢貢獻(xiàn)力已漸趨消失,即使如此,它們在帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方面仍發(fā)揮著十分重要的作用。因此,為保證經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長,就需要從技術(shù)層面上提升產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)層次,通過完善與創(chuàng)新技術(shù)吸收模式,以技術(shù)進(jìn)步為核心推進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級,充分發(fā)揮各投入要素的利用效率與貢獻(xiàn)力度。 本文共分為六章。第一章介紹研究背景和寫作思路,說明本文的創(chuàng)新之處和難點。第二章對基礎(chǔ)理論和相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行回顧、整理與總結(jié),從源頭上和結(jié)構(gòu)上理清本文研究的理論依據(jù)和思維脈絡(luò)。第三章從發(fā)展階段、政策導(dǎo)向、發(fā)展特點三方面,多視角審視浙江產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)狀,指出現(xiàn)實環(huán)境下浙江產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。第四章從要素投入的角度出發(fā),實證分析浙江經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響因素,通過浙江省近32年面板數(shù)據(jù)所得的各項指標(biāo),突出展示TFP增長率對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長貢獻(xiàn)程度的變化,驗證技術(shù)進(jìn)步對浙江省產(chǎn)業(yè)升級的必要性。第五章提出全新的以技術(shù)進(jìn)步為依托的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級新模式,即產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化,加工程度高度化,價值鏈高端化和組織管理高效化,并提出具體的實施方法與運(yùn)行機(jī)制。第六章對全文作出總結(jié),并就研究結(jié)果提出相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The course of development of a country or region is always accompanied by continuous upgrading of industry and continuous progress of technology. The production of economic activities and economics comes from the limited scarcity of resources, and the purpose of industrial upgrading is to adapt to the structure of local scarce factors of production so as to better promote the development of regional economy. Since the reform and opening up for more than 30 years, the planned economy has changed to the market economy, showing great potential and advantages, and Zhejiang has also made miracles in the economic growth of the whole country. This stage includes a series of industrial policy adjustments, including the overall spread of the rural contract responsibility system, the adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of industry, the rise of the private and individual economy from scratch, and the vigorous rise of township collective enterprises. The 2008 global financial crisis has hit China's manufacturing sector, which is heavily dependent on international markets, and Zhejiang has not been spared. Following the post-globalization era, the traditional industrial model of foreign trade has become unsustainable, the population dividend is exhausted, and the original international division of labor pattern has not been broken. In particular, in the eastern coastal areas, labor endowment gradually disappeared, capital and technology as a new engine of growth. Under this condition, Zhejiang's industrial upgrading once again faces the dual challenge of domestic reality and international environment. This paper finds that in the past 30 years of reform and opening up, the technological progress in Zhejiang Province has played a far more important role in promoting economic growth than in capital and labor force. However, the degree of capital investment has always been higher than the investment of technical elements. In addition, the characteristics of labor force input-output are not obvious, but from the empirical research results, the elasticity coefficient of labor output is far higher than that of capital output elasticity, so it is assumed that the growth characteristics of labor-intensive industries are still maintained. From the regression results, the contribution of technological progress to Zhejiang's economic growth began to decline after the 1992 international economic crisis. The fundamental reason is that after a period of adaptation and development, the strong contribution to the economy that was introduced in the early years of reform and opening up has gradually disappeared, even so. They still play a very important role in driving economic growth. Therefore, in order to ensure sustained economic growth, it is necessary to upgrade the industrial structure from the technical level and promote industrial upgrading by perfecting and innovating the mode of technology absorption and taking technological progress as the core. Give full play to the utilization efficiency and contribution of all input elements. This paper is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the research background and writing ideas, explains the innovation and difficulties of this paper. The second chapter reviews the basic theory and related literature, collates and summarizes, clarifies the theoretical basis and thinking thread of this study from the source and structure. The third chapter examines the present situation of Zhejiang industry from three aspects of development stage, policy direction and development characteristics, and points out the severe challenges facing Zhejiang industry under the real environment. The fourth chapter, from the angle of factor input, empirically analyzes the influencing factors of Zhejiang's economic growth. Through the indicators obtained from the panel data of Zhejiang Province in the past 32 years, it highlights the change of the contribution of TFP growth rate to economic growth. To verify the necessity of technological progress to industrial upgrading in Zhejiang Province. Chapter five puts forward a new mode of industrial upgrading based on technological progress, that is, advanced industrial structure, high degree of processing, high value chain and high efficiency of organization management, and puts forward specific implementation methods and operation mechanism. The sixth chapter summarizes the full text and puts forward the relevant policy recommendations on the research results.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127

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