【摘要】：氣候變化問題已成為環(huán)境經(jīng)濟管理和資源、能源政策領(lǐng)域中的研究熱點之一。應(yīng)對氣候變化則需要控制溫室氣體排放，然而控制溫室氣體排放的過程中經(jīng)常會引發(fā)社會經(jīng)濟方面的損失。因此如何解決這兩方面相互沖突的問題引發(fā)了廣泛的關(guān)注。碳減排規(guī)制是限制溫室氣體排放的一個復(fù)雜的政策系統(tǒng)，涉及眾多不同的形式的減排政策和規(guī)章。在我國經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型的關(guān)鍵時期，碳減排規(guī)制的實施會面臨更多的困難與挑戰(zhàn)，也會對不同行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生不同的影響。如何辨識影響巨大的行業(yè)，確定幫扶行業(yè)及鞭策行業(yè)，如何協(xié)調(diào)平衡各個行業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展同二氧化碳排放之間的關(guān)系是中國目前協(xié)調(diào)行業(yè)發(fā)展，促進行業(yè)升級中急需要解決的問題。因此，本論文主要利用多目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型分析碳減排規(guī)制下行業(yè)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中行業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本的影響。主要取得以下幾方面的創(chuàng)新性研究結(jié)果： （1）我國碳減排的各種政策將會對宏觀經(jīng)濟、行業(yè)經(jīng)濟及企業(yè)運營都會產(chǎn)生影響。對不同運營特點的行業(yè)及企業(yè)必然也會產(chǎn)生不同的效應(yīng)。有些行業(yè)由于有政府碳減排政策的支持而發(fā)展壯大，有些行業(yè)由于政策的實施而普遍虧損。本論文基于對碳排放驅(qū)動因素及國內(nèi)不同行業(yè)的碳排放量的分析基礎(chǔ)上，以中觀行業(yè)的視角，選擇具有代表意義的電力行業(yè)及汽車行業(yè)為代表，測算碳減排政策下，，行業(yè)生產(chǎn)的成本變動，為政府進一步制定行業(yè)政策提供理論依據(jù)。 （2）選擇目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型作為測度碳減排政策下行業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本變動的主要模型。并在基礎(chǔ)目標(biāo)規(guī)劃測算行業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本模型中加入時間變量，將原有靜態(tài)模型進行動態(tài)擴展，以期預(yù)測分析與實際情況更為相符。模型預(yù)測中國短期內(nèi)至2015年，在現(xiàn)有碳減排規(guī)制目標(biāo)下，行業(yè)生產(chǎn)成本的變動趨勢。歸納出隨經(jīng)濟的蓬勃發(fā)展，碳減排成本將會隨之上升的特點。證明針對不同行業(yè)特色，應(yīng)給予不同行業(yè)碳減排規(guī)制的必要性。 （3）針對不同行業(yè)特點，在原有目標(biāo)規(guī)劃分析模型中加入適用不同行業(yè)發(fā)展的減排約束。根據(jù)汽車行業(yè)特點將目標(biāo)規(guī)劃模型同行業(yè)增長極限約束相結(jié)合；根據(jù)電力行業(yè)特點，將嚴(yán)格減排目標(biāo)同行業(yè)擴張相結(jié)合，進行行業(yè)減排成本靈敏度計算以增加行業(yè)間的可比性。并增加三種目標(biāo)規(guī)劃外影響因素對行業(yè)碳減排成本分析的定性分析。其中行業(yè)產(chǎn)品的替代性、技術(shù)水平均有促使行業(yè)碳減排成本減低的趨勢，而要素價格的上漲有促使行業(yè)碳減排成本升高的趨勢。
[Abstract]:Climate change has become one of the research hotspots in the field of environmental economic management, resource and energy policy. Combating climate change requires controlling greenhouse gas emissions, which often result in socio-economic losses. Therefore, how to solve the conflict between these two aspects has aroused widespread concern. Carbon abatement regulation is a complex policy system to limit greenhouse gas emissions, involving many different forms of emission reduction policies and regulations. In the critical period of China's economic transformation, the implementation of carbon emission reduction regulations will face more difficulties and challenges, and will also have different effects on the economy of different industries. How to identify the industries that have a huge impact, how to help and motivate the industries, and how to balance the relationship between the economic development of various industries and carbon dioxide emissions is the current coordinated development of the industries in China. Promote the industry upgrade in urgent need to solve the problem. Therefore, this paper mainly uses multi-objective programming model to analyze the influence of industry production cost in industry economic development under the regulation of carbon emission reduction. The main results are as follows: (1) various policies of carbon abatement in China will have an impact on the macro-economy, industry economy and enterprise operation. Different operation characteristics of the industry and enterprises will inevitably have different effects. Some industries have grown because of government policies to reduce carbon emissions, while others have lost money. Based on the analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions and the carbon emissions of different industries in China, this paper chooses the representative power industry and automobile industry as the representative to calculate the carbon emission reduction policy from the perspective of the meso industry. The change of industry production cost provides the theoretical basis for the government to make further industry policy. (2) the target programming model is chosen as the main model to measure the change of industry production cost under the carbon emission reduction policy. The time variable is added to the model of the industry production cost based on the goal planning, and the static model is expanded dynamically, so that the prediction and analysis can be more consistent with the actual situation. The model predicts the changing trend of industry production cost under the existing carbon emission reduction regulation target in the short term to 2015 in China. Sum up with the vigorous development of economy, carbon abatement cost will rise along with it. It is proved that it is necessary to regulate the carbon emission reduction in different industries according to the characteristics of different industries. (3) according to the characteristics of different industries, the original target planning analysis model applies emission reduction constraints applicable to the development of different industries. According to the characteristics of automobile industry, the target programming model is combined with the limit constraints of industry growth; according to the characteristics of power industry, strict emission reduction targets are combined with industry expansion to calculate the sensitivity of industry emission reduction costs in order to increase the comparability between industries. The qualitative analysis of the cost of carbon emission reduction in the industry is carried out by adding three kinds of external influencing factors of target planning. Among them, the substitution of industry products and the technical level have the trend of reducing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry, while the rising of factor price has the trend of increasing the cost of carbon abatement in the industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：X322;F124.5

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