本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) + 貨幣供應(yīng)量�。� 參考：《貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前，國(guó)內(nèi)外對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量、股票市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的理論與實(shí)證研究大多是兩兩平行的，對(duì)三者之間動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)性進(jìn)行分析的文章很少。近些年來(lái)，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)改革、各種各樣的外界沖擊和政策變化等因素的影響，，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)正在逐漸發(fā)生變化，而用以往的固定參數(shù)模型表現(xiàn)不出來(lái)這種經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化。因此，本文將采用可變參數(shù)模型——狀態(tài)空間模型（State Space Model）對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與股票市場(chǎng)的關(guān)系做出系統(tǒng)的分析。 研究?jī)?nèi)容主要包括以下部分：第一，本文首先將回顧相關(guān)理論和實(shí)證文獻(xiàn)，主要是貨幣供應(yīng)理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論以及關(guān)于貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與股票市場(chǎng)的實(shí)證研究，從兩方面對(duì)它們?nèi)咧g的關(guān)系進(jìn)行梳理；第二，本文將使用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，構(gòu)建貨幣供應(yīng)量、股票市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展之間的經(jīng)濟(jì)模型，對(duì)它們之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析；第三，本文將提出相關(guān)的對(duì)策建議，希望得出的結(jié)論有助于決策部門(mén)更有效地制定和實(shí)施貨幣政策，為建立完善股票市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定機(jī)制以及實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)又快又穩(wěn)的增長(zhǎng)提供有效的借鑒依據(jù)。 實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：第一，股票市場(chǎng)與貨幣供應(yīng)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)兩兩之間以及它們?nèi)咧g具有長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關(guān)系，即使股票市場(chǎng)或者貨幣供應(yīng)量出現(xiàn)短暫波動(dòng)，也會(huì)在短時(shí)間內(nèi)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生相同方向的影響。第二，股票市場(chǎng)能夠促進(jìn)貨幣供應(yīng)量的增加以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。同時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)會(huì)增加對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量的需求，反之貨幣供應(yīng)量的變化也會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生影響。第三，在短期內(nèi)，股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)GDP的影響要大于貨幣供應(yīng)量M2對(duì)GDP的影響；從長(zhǎng)期看，貨幣供應(yīng)量M2對(duì)GDP影響又要大于股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)GDP影響。第四，股票市場(chǎng)減弱了貨幣政策對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響力。第五，貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響力長(zhǎng)期趨勢(shì)上是在緩慢上升，同時(shí)也要充分考慮國(guó)家財(cái)政政策的影響。股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)貨幣供應(yīng)量的影響力也是在持續(xù)增加，而對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響力與其自身行情有很大關(guān)系，隨著資本市場(chǎng)改革的逐步推進(jìn)有利于更多的投資者參與其中，同時(shí)也意味著更多的存款和保證金進(jìn)入了股票市場(chǎng)，股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)它們的影響也會(huì)越來(lái)越大。
[Abstract]:At present, the theoretical and empirical studies on money supply, stock market and economic development are mostly parallel at home and abroad, and there are few articles to analyze the dynamic correlation between them. In recent years, due to the influence of economic reform, various external shocks and policy changes, the economic structure of our country is gradually changing, but the change of the economic structure can not be shown by the previous fixed parameter model. Therefore, this paper will make a systematic analysis of the relationship among money supply, economic development and stock market by using the variable parameter model, the State Space Model. The main contents of the study are as follows: first, this paper will review the relevant theoretical and empirical literature, mainly money supply theory, economic growth theory and empirical research on money supply, economic development and stock market. Second, this paper will use relevant data to construct the economic model between money supply, stock market and economic development, and make an empirical analysis of the relationship between them. This paper will put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions, hoping that the conclusions will help the policy-making departments to formulate and implement monetary policy more effectively. It provides an effective reference for establishing and perfecting the stable mechanism of stock market and realizing the rapid and steady growth of our country's economy. The empirical results show that: first, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between stock market and money supply, economic growth and between them, even if the stock market or money supply fluctuates briefly. It will also have an impact on economic growth in the same direction in a short period of time. Second, the stock market can promote the increase of money supply and economic growth. At the same time, economic growth will increase the demand for money supply, on the other hand, changes in money supply will also have an impact on economic growth. Thirdly, in the short term, the impact of stock market on GDP is greater than that of M2 of money supply on GDP, and in the long run, M2 of money supply has greater impact on GDP than on GDP of stock market. Fourth, the stock market has weakened the impact of monetary policy on the real economy. Fifth, the influence of money supply on economic growth is slowly rising over the long term, and the impact of national fiscal policy should be fully considered. The influence of the stock market on the money supply is also increasing, and the influence on the economic growth has much to do with its own market. As the reform of the capital market moves forward, more investors can participate in it. It also means more deposits and deposits enter the stock market, and the stock market will have a growing impact on them.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：貴州財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F124.1;F822.2;F832.51

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