本文選題：出口商品結(jié)構(gòu) + 經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變��； 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：2011年至今，我國經(jīng)濟連續(xù)五個季度放緩，特別是今年以來，經(jīng)濟放緩壓力進一步增大，市場彌漫著對中國經(jīng)濟形勢悲觀的預(yù)估。隨著“人口紅利”、“資源紅利”衰竭以及“劉易斯拐點”的到來，我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展進程將會繼續(xù)放緩，轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式被隨之推到輿論頂端。我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的問題主要是重增長輕發(fā)展，且高增長是由出口拉動的，而出口結(jié)構(gòu)的低級化帶來了經(jīng)濟高增長與發(fā)展的諸多問題，因此，加快我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變需要優(yōu)化出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)。 本文采取理論與實證相結(jié)合的分析方法，，著重分析出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的影響。首先，對出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)影響中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的機理進行了分析。其次，利用大量的圖表呈現(xiàn)了1985-2010年間我國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)演進情況，并采用主成分分析法綜合測算出我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)。再次，本文選取1985-2010年的年度數(shù)據(jù)，分別用ADF檢驗、協(xié)整檢驗和格蘭杰因果檢驗分析了我國資源密集型商品、勞動密集型商品、資本技術(shù)密集型商品出口與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，并建立向量自回歸模型，將上述四個變量納入模型中，利用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析了經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)對資源密集型商品、勞動密集型商品、資本技術(shù)密集型商品出口沖擊的響應(yīng)，并進一步利用方差分解檢驗了資源密集型商品、勞動密集型商品、資本技術(shù)密集型商品出口對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)變動的貢獻度。 本文的實證分析結(jié)果顯示：1.雖然在1986年、1993年及2008年分別出現(xiàn)較顯著的波動，但是我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平總體處于向上的趨勢，向著良性方向發(fā)展；2.資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品出口對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式的轉(zhuǎn)變的沖擊作用較大，勞動密集型產(chǎn)品出口次之，資源密集型產(chǎn)品出口對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的解釋能力相對較小。3.經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變水平指數(shù)對資本技術(shù)密集型商品出口的沖擊是一個逐漸向上并趨于平穩(wěn)的正向反應(yīng)，而對其他兩個變量沖擊的反應(yīng)正好相反。 根據(jù)研究結(jié)論，本文提出了相應(yīng)的對策建議，主要有：積極推進出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)區(qū)域性調(diào)整；加大RD投入力度，鼓勵自主創(chuàng)新；增加傳統(tǒng)出口產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)含量，提高其附加值，促進出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)與國內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的良性互動等。
[Abstract]:The country's economy has slowed for five consecutive quarters since 2011, especially this year, as slowing pressures have increased and bearish forecasts of China's economic situation have pervaded the market. With the arrival of "demographic dividend", "resource dividend" exhaustion and "Lewis inflection point", China's economic development process will continue to slow down, and the transformation of economic development mode will be pushed to the top of public opinion. The problems of the mode of economic development in our country are mainly emphasis on growth and light on development, and the high growth is driven by export, and the low level of export structure brings many problems of high economic growth and development. To speed up the transformation of our country's economic development mode, we need to optimize the structure of export commodities. This paper analyzes the influence of export commodity structure on the transformation of China's economic development mode by combining theory and practice. Firstly, the mechanism of export commodity structure influencing the transformation of China's economic development mode is analyzed. Secondly, a large number of charts are used to present the evolution of China's export commodity structure from 1985 to 2010, and the index of China's economic development mode transformation level is calculated by using principal component analysis (PCA). Thirdly, this paper selects the annual data from 1985 to 2010, and uses ADF test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to analyze the resource-intensive commodities and labor-intensive commodities in China. The correlation between the export of capital-technology-intensive commodities and the level index of economic development change, and the establishment of vector autoregressive model, the above four variables into the model, The impulse response function is used to analyze the response of the change level index of economic development mode to the export shock of resource-intensive commodity, labor-intensive commodity and capital-technology-intensive commodity. Furthermore, the contribution of resource-intensive commodity, labor-intensive commodity and capital-technology-intensive commodity export to the change of economic development level index is tested by variance decomposition. The empirical analysis of this paper shows that: 1. Although there were significant fluctuations in 1986, 1993 and 2008 respectively, the level of transformation of the mode of economic development in China is generally in an upward trend, toward the direction of benign development. The export of capital-technology intensive products has a great impact on the transformation of economic development mode, followed by labor-intensive products export, and resource-intensive products export has a relatively small explanatory power to the transformation of economic development mode. The level index of the change of economic development mode is a positive response to the export of capital-technology-intensive commodities gradually upward and stable, but the response to the other two variables is just the opposite. According to the conclusion of the research, this paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions, including: actively promoting the regional adjustment of export commodity structure; increasing R D input to encourage independent innovation; increasing the technical content of traditional export products and increasing their added value. Promote the benign interaction between export commodity structure and domestic industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F124;F752.62

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