本文選題：消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu) + 食品價(jià)格　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：消費(fèi)問(wèn)題是許多國(guó)家都高度重視的問(wèn)題。中國(guó)是人口大國(guó)，居民消費(fèi)需求的增長(zhǎng)可以很大程度上促進(jìn)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)快速健康發(fā)展。城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)支出占全國(guó)居民消費(fèi)總支出的比重很大，在2011年達(dá)到77.3%。近幾年隨著通貨膨脹壓力的加劇，食品價(jià)格不斷上升，又進(jìn)一步帶動(dòng)通貨膨脹，在這樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境影響下，我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)會(huì)受到怎樣的影響成為值得關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。一般來(lái)說(shuō)，，城鎮(zhèn)居民的消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)用居民各類(lèi)消費(fèi)品支出的份額表示。食品價(jià)格波動(dòng)會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生怎樣的影響，對(duì)這一問(wèn)題的研究將有助于及時(shí)掌握居民消費(fèi)需求熱點(diǎn)，制定合理政策，提高居民生活水平，有效刺激內(nèi)需，促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展，這是我國(guó)當(dāng)前及今后都要面臨的課題，也是社會(huì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中必須要解決的問(wèn)題。 本文理論與實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合，通過(guò)ELES模型、協(xié)整關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、方差分解分析，使用Eviews6.0經(jīng)濟(jì)分析軟件對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行研究與探討。得出了關(guān)于食品價(jià)格在短期和長(zhǎng)期中影響我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的結(jié)論。在短期中，以2011年為樣本期間，進(jìn)行價(jià)格彈性分析，結(jié)果顯示我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)中各類(lèi)消費(fèi)品對(duì)食品價(jià)格的交叉彈性為負(fù)值，這說(shuō)明，食品價(jià)格上漲在短期內(nèi)會(huì)對(duì)居民的消費(fèi)需求產(chǎn)生擠出效應(yīng)。而在長(zhǎng)期中，采用1996—2011年的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，結(jié)果顯示除衣著類(lèi)和家庭設(shè)備用品服務(wù)類(lèi)外，其他類(lèi)消費(fèi)品都與食品價(jià)格呈現(xiàn)出負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系，這是因?yàn)�，隨著生活水平的提高，衣著類(lèi)和家庭設(shè)備用品服務(wù)類(lèi)逐漸成為了人們的生活必需品，具有一定的需求剛性，即使食品價(jià)格上升，也不會(huì)降低對(duì)這兩類(lèi)消費(fèi)品的支出，相反會(huì)因?yàn)閮r(jià)格水平的上漲而出現(xiàn)消費(fèi)支出增加的趨勢(shì)，同時(shí)也表明了我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)能力得到了提高。 本文主要分為以下幾個(gè)部分： 第一部分闡述了文章的選題背景與意義，介紹國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)各個(gè)方面的研究現(xiàn)狀以及本文的主要框架。 第二部分介紹相關(guān)的理論以及本文中實(shí)證部分所用的幾個(gè)研究方法。具體包括價(jià)格效應(yīng)的理論依據(jù)、單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整理論、VEC模型和方差分解。 第三部分以2011年數(shù)據(jù)為樣本期間，通過(guò)ELES模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，得出我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民各類(lèi)消費(fèi)支出的邊際消費(fèi)傾向、自?xún)r(jià)格彈性、交叉價(jià)格彈性以及收入彈性。 第四部分基于1996——2011年的數(shù)據(jù)，實(shí)證研究了食品價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的影響，結(jié)果表明，食品價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出有長(zhǎng)期影響，且對(duì)每類(lèi)消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生不同的沖擊貢獻(xiàn)率。 文章最后是本文的結(jié)論及相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Consumption is a problem that many countries attach great importance to. China is a populous country. The growth of consumer demand can greatly promote the expansion of production scale and the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the economy. Urban residents' consumption expenditure accounted for a large proportion of the country's total consumption expenditure, reaching 77.3 percent in 2011. In recent years, with the aggravation of the inflationary pressure, the food price is rising constantly, and further driving the inflation. Under the influence of such economic environment, how to affect the consumption structure of the urban residents in our country becomes a problem worth paying attention to. In general, the consumption structure of urban residents is expressed by the share of consumer expenditure. What kind of impact will food price fluctuation have on the consumption structure of urban residents in our country? the study on this issue will help us to grasp the hot spots of residents' consumption demand in time, formulate reasonable policies, improve residents' living standards, and effectively stimulate domestic demand. To promote the healthy development of economy is a subject that our country must face at present and in the future, and it is also a problem that must be solved in the course of social development. This paper combines the theory with the empirical analysis, through the Eles model, cointegration test, variance decomposition analysis, using Eviews6.0 economic analysis software to study and discuss the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The conclusion is drawn that the food price affects the consumption structure of urban residents in the short and long term. In the short term, during the sample period of 2011, the price elasticity analysis shows that the cross-elasticity of all kinds of consumer goods to food prices in the consumption structure of urban residents in China is negative. Higher food prices will have an crowding out effect on consumer demand in the short term. In the long run, empirical analysis using data from 1996 to 2011 shows that, except for the categories of clothing and household equipment and services, there is a negative correlation between other categories of consumer goods and food prices, because, With the improvement of living standards, clothing and household equipment services have gradually become the necessities of life, with certain demand rigidity. Even if food prices rise, it will not reduce the expenditure on these two categories of consumer goods. On the contrary, there will be an increase in consumer expenditure due to the rise of the price level, and it also shows that the consumption ability of Chinese residents has been improved. This paper is divided into the following parts: the first part describes the background and significance of the article, introduces the domestic and foreign scholars on the consumption structure of various aspects of research and the main framework of this paper. The second part introduces the relevant theories and several research methods used in the empirical part of this paper. It includes the theoretical basis of price effect, unit root test, cointegration theory, VEC model and variance decomposition. The third part takes 2011 data as the sample period, through the Eles model carries on the empirical analysis, obtains our country urban resident each kind of consumption expenditure marginal consumption tendency, the self-price elasticity, the cross-price elasticity and the income elasticity. The fourth part, based on the data from 1996 to 2011, empirically studies the impact of food price fluctuation on the consumption structure of urban residents in China. The results show that food price fluctuation has a long-term impact on the consumption expenditure of urban residents in China. And to each kind of consumer expenditure produces the different impact contribution rate. The last part of the article is the conclusion of this paper and the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F224;F126.1;F726

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 ;Research on Consumption Structure of Rural Residents in Gansu Province Based on ELES Model[J];Asian Agricultural Research;2011年09期

2 唐霜紅;夏顯力;;基于A(yíng)IDS模型的西安市農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)分析[J];安徽農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué);2012年01期

3 程國(guó)強(qiáng);胡冰川;徐雪高;;新一輪農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價(jià)格上漲的影響分析[J];管理世界;2008年01期

4 黃季q;楊軍;仇煥廣;徐志剛;;本輪糧食價(jià)格的大起大落:主要原因及未來(lái)走勢(shì)[J];管理世界;2009年01期

5 張斌;徐建煒;;石油價(jià)格沖擊與中國(guó)的宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì):機(jī)制、影響與對(duì)策[J];管理世界;2010年11期

6 肖六億;;食品價(jià)格與CPI關(guān)系的實(shí)證分析[J];湖北師范學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)版);2009年04期

7 潘春陽(yáng);杜莉;蔡t熥

本文編號(hào)：2083913