中國經(jīng)濟(jì)“微刺激”效果及其趨勢評估
發(fā)布時間:2018-06-24 11:00
本文選題:“微刺激” + 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策; 參考:《改革》2014年07期
【摘要】:政府為穩(wěn)增長而使用的"微刺激"政策有其必要性。"微刺激"已取得一定的穩(wěn)增長效果。但是,"微刺激"的使用不能常態(tài)化、長期化。究其原因:一是"微刺激"仍然靠拉動投資穩(wěn)增長;二是政府頻頻出招,"微刺激"疊加之后的政策力度并不小;三是寄望"微刺激"既穩(wěn)增長又調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)的戰(zhàn)略意圖難以實現(xiàn),并且可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)一步惡化;四是"微刺激"已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)"效應(yīng)遞減"現(xiàn)象,政府為穩(wěn)增長很可能將"微刺激"不斷加碼為強(qiáng)刺激。解決換擋期出現(xiàn)的增速下滑問題,應(yīng)完善社會政策體系,發(fā)揮其"托底"功能。
[Abstract]:There is a need for a "micro-stimulus" policy used by the government to stabilize growth. " Micro stimulation "has achieved certain steady growth effect." However, the use of "micro-stimuli" can not be regular, long-term. The reasons are as follows: first, "micro-stimulus" still depends on pulling investment to stabilize growth; second, the government frequently makes moves, and the policy intensity after "micro-stimulus" is superimposed is not small; and third, it is difficult to realize the strategic intention of "micro-stimulus" to achieve both steady growth and structural adjustment. And may lead to further deterioration of the economic structure; fourth, "micro-stimulus" has appeared a "diminishing effect" phenomenon, the government for stable growth will likely continue to add "micro-stimulus" as a strong stimulus. To solve the problem of decreasing growth rate in shift period, we should perfect the social policy system and give full play to its "backing" function.
【作者單位】: 中國人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院;
【基金】:國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“中國人口老齡化對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的定量影響”(批準(zhǔn)號:71273272);國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“企業(yè)異質(zhì)性與最優(yōu)貨幣政策研究”(批準(zhǔn)號:71373266) 教育部人文社會科學(xué)重點研究基地重大項目“中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)困境的形成機(jī)理與應(yīng)對策略”
【分類號】:F124
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本文編號:2061303
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