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基于三區(qū)域CGE模型的東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移模擬研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-20 01:00

  本文選題:東部地區(qū) + 產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移; 參考:《湖南科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文


【摘要】:2008年世界金融危機(jī)以來,國際產(chǎn)業(yè)分工經(jīng)歷了深刻變化,在復(fù)雜的國際國內(nèi)形勢下,我國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展正經(jīng)受嚴(yán)峻的考驗(yàn)。東部地區(qū)土地使用成本上漲、人工成本提高、能源等要素價(jià)格增加,產(chǎn)業(yè)同構(gòu)、環(huán)境污染等問題日益嚴(yán)重,使得該地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展空間處于相對飽和狀態(tài),從而阻礙了產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級,限制了高端制造業(yè)、高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展。為此,東部地區(qū)有必要推動失去比較優(yōu)勢的傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)向外轉(zhuǎn)移,為新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和高端產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展騰出空間。 產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移是推進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整、加快轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式、形成合理產(chǎn)業(yè)分工體系的有效途徑,也是優(yōu)化生產(chǎn)力空間布局、縮小地區(qū)發(fā)展差距、實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的必然要求。當(dāng)前,我國東部地區(qū)向中西部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移浪潮已經(jīng)席卷全國并向中西部縱深地區(qū)推進(jìn),轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,轉(zhuǎn)移步伐不斷加快。因此,,研究中國區(qū)級產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的主要趨勢及其影響因素,具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變化對東部沿海地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響問題,首先對國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的研究成果進(jìn)行歸納和梳理,并對相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行分析,為本文的研究奠定理論基礎(chǔ);其次,利用2009-2011年東部地區(qū)的產(chǎn)業(yè)數(shù)據(jù),對東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行分析,結(jié)果表明:目前東部地區(qū)的主導(dǎo)產(chǎn)業(yè)為資本密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)和技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)業(yè),而勞動密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)在東部地區(qū)已經(jīng)失去競爭力,急需向外轉(zhuǎn)移;再次,根據(jù)我國實(shí)際情況,基于一般均衡理論,構(gòu)建了三區(qū)域CGE模型,并利用2007年三區(qū)域社會核算矩陣對模型中的參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì)。同時(shí),結(jié)合我國東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移現(xiàn)狀,設(shè)計(jì)模擬情景,對勞動力、資本、企業(yè)所得稅和企業(yè)間接稅對東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響進(jìn)行模擬研究,模擬發(fā)現(xiàn):勞動力、資本、企業(yè)所得稅和企業(yè)間接稅對東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移均具有重要影響;且勞動投入量和資本投入量對東部地區(qū)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的影響大于企業(yè)所得稅和企業(yè)間接稅。最后,結(jié)合本文的結(jié)論,從東部地區(qū)和中西部地區(qū)的角度出發(fā),分別提出了東部地區(qū)促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移和中西部地區(qū)積極承接產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 world financial crisis, the international industrial division of labor has undergone profound changes. Under the complicated international and domestic situation, the development of China's industrial economy is undergoing a severe test. The rising cost of land use, the increase of labor cost, the increase of the price of energy and other factors, the industrial isomorphism and the environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious in the eastern region, which makes the industrial development space in this area relatively saturated. This hinders the industrial transformation and upgrading and limits the development of high-end manufacturing, high-tech industry and modern service industry. Therefore, it is necessary for the eastern region to promote the outward transfer of traditional industries that have lost their comparative advantage, so as to make room for the development of emerging and high-end industries. Industrial transfer is an effective way to promote the adjustment of industrial structure, accelerate the transformation of economic development mode, and form a reasonable industrial division system. It is also an inevitable requirement for optimizing the spatial distribution of productive forces, narrowing the regional development gap and realizing regional coordinated development. At present, the industrial transfer tide from the eastern region to the central and western regions has swept the whole country and pushed forward to the deep part of the central and western regions. The scale of the transfer has been continuously expanded, and the pace of the transfer has been continuously accelerated. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the main trend and influencing factors of regional industrial transfer in China. This paper focuses on the influence of the change of economic environment on the industrial transfer in the eastern coastal areas. Firstly, it summarizes and combs the existing research results of industrial transfer at home and abroad, and analyzes the relevant theories, which lays a theoretical foundation for the research of this paper. Secondly, using the industrial data of the eastern region from 2009-2011 to analyze the industrial development situation in the eastern region, the results show that the dominant industries in the eastern region are capital-intensive industries and technology-intensive industries. The labor-intensive industry has lost its competitiveness in the eastern region and needs to be transferred to the outside. Thirdly, according to the actual situation of our country, based on the general equilibrium theory, a three-region CGE model is constructed. The parameters of the model are estimated by using the three-region social accounting matrix in 2007. At the same time, according to the present situation of industrial transfer in the eastern region of China, the paper designs a simulation scenario to simulate the influence of labor force, capital, enterprise income tax and enterprise indirect tax on the industrial transfer in eastern China. Enterprise income tax and enterprise indirect tax have important influence on industrial transfer in eastern region, and the influence of labor input and capital input on industrial transfer in eastern region is greater than that on enterprise income tax and indirect enterprise tax. Finally, based on the conclusion of this paper, from the point of view of the eastern region and the central and western regions, the paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions for promoting industrial transfer and actively undertaking industrial transfer in the eastern region and the central and western region respectively.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:湖南科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號】:F127

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