本文選題：城市偏向 + 二元財(cái)政��； 參考：《新疆大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：“城市偏向”的發(fā)展模式是大多數(shù)國家在早期經(jīng)濟(jì)積累過程中，為實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的迅速增長而做出的戰(zhàn)略選擇，尤以財(cái)稅政策上的城市偏向性最為突出。但這一經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式所內(nèi)生的弊端是收入分配不公，城鄉(xiāng)收入分配格局會(huì)逐漸惡化，這也正是現(xiàn)階段我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所面臨的突出問題。正確處理好城鄉(xiāng)收入分配問題、準(zhǔn)確評(píng)估“城市偏向”政策的影響進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長方式的調(diào)整與優(yōu)化成為經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)穩(wěn)步發(fā)展的重要保證�，F(xiàn)有的研究理論與實(shí)證結(jié)果較為豐富，這為本文的研究奠定了良好的基礎(chǔ)。 本文共分以下五部分：第一部分是引言，說明了本研究領(lǐng)域的國內(nèi)外現(xiàn)狀，本論文所要解決的問題，以及本研究在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)方面的理論價(jià)值與實(shí)際意義。第二部分是本文研究的理論分析部分，主要是借鑒路徑依賴?yán)碚摗⒅械仁杖胂葳謇碚�、城市發(fā)展理論、地方政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論和貧困陷阱理論等方面的最新研究成果，提取其中相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)思想，增強(qiáng)本文研究的前沿性和理論深度。城市偏向的財(cái)政政策在自我強(qiáng)化與不斷吸收配套政策的作用下會(huì)形成“路徑依賴”并自我“鎖定”，而擺脫這樣一種次優(yōu)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略有賴于外部的制度創(chuàng)新，僅靠城市化不能自動(dòng)縮小城鄉(xiāng)收入差距，從城市發(fā)展理論的角度，我國的城市化尚未形成與服務(wù)業(yè)的聯(lián)動(dòng)發(fā)展模式，而農(nóng)村地區(qū)的發(fā)展若被忽視，便有墜入“中等收入陷阱”的危險(xiǎn)。另外，地方政府應(yīng)成為公共財(cái)政體系中的有效服務(wù)者，依照城市和農(nóng)村地區(qū)的不同需要提供相應(yīng)財(cái)政支持，而農(nóng)村克服“貧困陷阱”、實(shí)現(xiàn)農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化需要投入充足的資金以超過一定的“門檻值”。第三部分通過選取二元財(cái)政對(duì)比度、城鄉(xiāng)收入差距與農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)三個(gè)變量，運(yùn)用Johansen協(xié)整理論和VECM模型，探討了城市偏向政策與城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的內(nèi)在聯(lián)動(dòng)機(jī)制及其對(duì)農(nóng)村居民消費(fèi)的影響，結(jié)果顯示城市偏向的財(cái)政政策主要受自我強(qiáng)化與慣性的影響，這證明了“路徑依賴”的存在，，而城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的擴(kuò)大并非直接源自財(cái)政的偏向性，預(yù)測結(jié)果也表明即便城市偏向的財(cái)政政策會(huì)消除，縮小城鄉(xiāng)收入差距的阻力依然存在。第四部分使用混合模型法，以農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長為目標(biāo)，加入了地方政府農(nóng)業(yè)財(cái)政投入這一變量，實(shí)證分析了各農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)要素的貢獻(xiàn)率，結(jié)果表明，勞動(dòng)投入仍然是現(xiàn)階段農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要推動(dòng)力，資本的投入更多地以技術(shù)進(jìn)步的方式間接促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展，不過技術(shù)進(jìn)步對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率并不高，因此地方政府應(yīng)重點(diǎn)加大農(nóng)村地區(qū)科技和人力資本方面的財(cái)政投入。第五部分總結(jié)全文研究結(jié)論與研究成果，為下一步國家政策的調(diào)整提供有益的啟示。
[Abstract]:The development model of "urban bias" is the strategic choice that most countries made to realize the rapid economic growth in the process of early economic accumulation, especially in the fiscal policy. However, the inherent malpractice of this economic growth model is unfair income distribution, and the pattern of income distribution between urban and rural areas will gradually deteriorate, which is also the outstanding problem that our country is facing in the economic development at the present stage. It is an important guarantee for the steady development of economy and society to correctly deal with the problem of urban and rural income distribution, to accurately evaluate the influence of "urban bias" policy and to realize the adjustment and optimization of economic growth mode. The existing theoretical and empirical results are relatively rich, which laid a good foundation for this study. This paper is divided into five parts: the first part is the introduction, which explains the current situation of this research field at home and abroad, the problems to be solved in this paper, as well as the theoretical value and practical significance of this study in China's economic construction. The second part is the theoretical analysis part of this paper, mainly draw lessons from the path dependence theory, middle-income trap theory, urban development theory, local government economics theory and poverty trap theory and other aspects of the latest research results. The relevant economic ideas are extracted to enhance the forerunner and theoretical depth of this paper. Under the function of self-strengthening and absorbing the supporting policies, the urban fiscal policy will form "path dependence" and "lock" itself, and get rid of such a sub-optimal development strategy depends on external institutional innovation. Urbanization alone can not automatically narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas. From the perspective of urban development theory, urbanization in China has not yet formed a linkage development model with the service industry, but the development of rural areas is ignored. There is a risk of falling into a middle-income trap. In addition, local governments should become effective service providers in the public financial system, providing corresponding financial support in accordance with the different needs of urban and rural areas, while rural areas should overcome the "poverty trap". To realize agricultural modernization, we need to invest enough funds to exceed a certain threshold. The third part uses Johansen co-integration theory and VECM model to select three variables of dual fiscal contrast, urban-rural income gap and rural residents' consumption. This paper discusses the internal linkage mechanism between urban bias policy and urban-rural income gap and its influence on rural residents' consumption. The results show that the fiscal policy of urban bias is mainly influenced by self-reinforcement and inertia, which proves the existence of "path dependence". However, the widening of urban-rural income gap is not directly due to fiscal bias. The forecast results also show that even if the urban-rural biased fiscal policy will be eliminated, the resistance to narrowing urban-rural income gap still exists. The fourth part uses the mixed model method, taking the agricultural economic growth as the goal, adds the local government agricultural financial input variable, empirically analyzes the contribution rate of each agricultural production factor, the result shows that, Labor input is still the main driving force of agricultural economic growth at the present stage. The investment of capital promotes agricultural development indirectly by means of technological progress, but the contribution rate of technological progress to agricultural economic growth is not high. Therefore, local governments should focus on increasing the financial investment in science and technology and human capital in rural areas. The fifth part summarizes the conclusions and results of the research, and provides useful inspiration for the next step of national policy adjustment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F812.0;F124.7

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