本文選題：產(chǎn)能 + 產(chǎn)能利用率��； 參考：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：1978年以來,伴隨著改革開放的逐步深入,我國經(jīng)濟不僅快速增長,而且遭遇了三次大規(guī)模產(chǎn)能過�！�1998-2001年期間我國出現(xiàn)了第一次大規(guī)模產(chǎn)能過剩,2003-2006年期間我國再次出現(xiàn)了大規(guī)模產(chǎn)能過剩,2009年開始我國又爆發(fā)了第三次大規(guī)模產(chǎn)能過剩。并且,我國的三次大規(guī)模產(chǎn)能過剩,后一次都比前一次更加嚴重、更加惡化。正是在這樣的背景下,2008年以來,產(chǎn)能過剩成為我國經(jīng)濟理論界和宏觀經(jīng)濟管理層共同關注的重大經(jīng)濟管理問題之一。 雖然國內關于產(chǎn)能過剩的研究涉及工業(yè)經(jīng)濟和整個國民經(jīng)濟兩個層面,但本文界定的產(chǎn)能過剩僅指工業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩。對工業(yè)產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率問題的研討,國內外學者主要存在三個視角：企業(yè)內部視角、企業(yè)(行業(yè)、地區(qū))比較視角和宏觀經(jīng)濟管理視角。本文將對我國產(chǎn)能過剩的研究限制在宏觀經(jīng)濟管理視角�；诤暧^經(jīng)濟管理視角,人們關注工業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用的水平、是否存在工業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩及其過剩的程度、產(chǎn)能過剩的產(chǎn)生原因及其調控方式,以及如何判斷和監(jiān)測工業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩的情況。其中,產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法以及產(chǎn)能過剩監(jiān)測預警體系是我國產(chǎn)能過剩研究中的兩大重點和難點問題。本文選擇產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法作為中心論題。 本文詳細辨析產(chǎn)能過剩研究中的三個基本概念——產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)能利用率和產(chǎn)能過剩,并把產(chǎn)能概念概括為三大類：技術產(chǎn)能、經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)能和經(jīng)驗產(chǎn)能。相應地,產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法分為三類：基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法、基于經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)能概念的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法以及基于經(jīng)驗產(chǎn)能概念的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法。進而,本文的中心論題被進一步明確為基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率測算方法。 本文主要包括四部分內容。 1.本文梳理國內外有關產(chǎn)能過剩研究的相關文獻,進行文獻綜述,并辨析和界定產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)能利用率和產(chǎn)能過剩這三個產(chǎn)能過剩研究中的基本概念。 (1)本文把產(chǎn)能概念歸納為三大類：技術產(chǎn)能、經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)能和經(jīng)驗產(chǎn)能。本文把產(chǎn)能界定為一個技術產(chǎn)能概念,即在給定生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的每一個工廠能保持一個切合實際的工作安排框架內,考慮到正常的停機時間,所投入的資本和勞動力(或者所投入的資本)得到充分利用條件下,該生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)可能達到的最大產(chǎn)出水平。 (2)遵循國內外學者對產(chǎn)能利用率概念的界定,產(chǎn)能利用率被定義為實際產(chǎn)出與產(chǎn)能之比。當然,實際產(chǎn)出和產(chǎn)能一般使用增加值來反映。 (3)梳理國內外的產(chǎn)能過剩概念,提出架構統(tǒng)一的產(chǎn)能過剩概念體系的四個原則,并理順和形成統(tǒng)一的產(chǎn)能過剩概念體系,進而論述統(tǒng)一的產(chǎn)能過剩概念體系的優(yōu)點。明確本文界定的產(chǎn)能過剩是指產(chǎn)能相對于生產(chǎn)量的過剩,即產(chǎn)能利用率小于1就是出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能過剩。 2.本文介紹若干種國內外有關產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的測算方法,并且,在對這些測算方法進行分析、比較和評價的基礎上,提出產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的一個新測算方法,進而應用此新測算方法得到1992-2011年的我國制造業(yè)28個行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能利用率的測算數(shù)據(jù)。 (1)測算方法的分類與比較。按照各種測算方法所依據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)的來源和特征的不同,本文把產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的測算方法分為兩大類：基于宏觀經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的測算方法與基于微觀企業(yè)調查結果的測算方法。前者包括技術產(chǎn)能和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)能兩個產(chǎn)能概念,后者含有經(jīng)驗產(chǎn)能概念。前者的數(shù)據(jù)基礎是經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),而后者的數(shù)據(jù)基礎是通過對企業(yè)進行抽樣調查后匯總的結果。 從基本思想、誤差可控性、結果穩(wěn)定性和概念可操作性等四個方面,對基于宏觀經(jīng)濟統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的測算方法與基于微觀企業(yè)調查結果的測算方法進行了比較和評價。從誤差可控性、結果穩(wěn)定性和概念可操作性等三個方面,對基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的測算方法與基于經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)能概念的測算方法進行了比較和評價。 (2)基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的幾種具體測算方法。由于本文界定的產(chǎn)能概念是一個技術產(chǎn)能概念，，并且我國宏觀經(jīng)濟管理層特別關注生產(chǎn)資料投入所形成的生產(chǎn)能力、尤其重視固定資產(chǎn)投資所形成的生產(chǎn)能力,因此,本文介紹基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的幾種具體測算方法,包括Artus方法、過峰趨勢技術、“產(chǎn)出/資本”比率方法、峰到峰方法、沈利生(1999)方法、楊光、馬曉瑩(2010)方法、龔剛、楊琳(2002)方法等。進一步,從假設的合理性、所使用的數(shù)據(jù)的特征(完全直接利用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)還是不完全直接利用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù))、對技術產(chǎn)能定義的運用形式等三個方面對基于技術產(chǎn)能概念的上述幾種具體測算方法進行了比較,結論有二： ①不同的具體測算方法各有其優(yōu)缺點,哪種具體測算方法的假設較為符合某時期、某區(qū)域、某產(chǎn)業(yè)的現(xiàn)實情況,該種具體的測算方法就更適用于測算此時期、此區(qū)域、此產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的數(shù)據(jù)。 ②從形式上可以把基于技術產(chǎn)能的產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的測算方法分為三類：類型Ⅰ測算方法是應用實際產(chǎn)出、資本存量和勞動力這三個指標的數(shù)據(jù)來測算產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率。類型Ⅱ測算方法是應用實際產(chǎn)出、資本存量這兩個指標的數(shù)據(jù)(不使用勞動力的數(shù)據(jù))來測算產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率。類型Ⅲ測算方法是僅僅應用實際產(chǎn)出這一個指標的數(shù)據(jù)(不使用資本存量和勞動力的數(shù)據(jù))來測算產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率。而且,在對比這三種類型測算方法的優(yōu)缺點之后,確定本文立足于類型Ⅲ測算方法的思想和原理來探討產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的新測算方法。 (3)提出一種新測算方法。在多角度對測算方法進行分析、比較和評價的基礎上,提出產(chǎn)能和產(chǎn)能利用率的一個新測算方法,并且,詳細論證新測算方法所依據(jù)的假設的合理性,這是新測算方法具備合理性的論據(jù)之一；進而應用此新測算方法計算得到1992-2011年的我國制造業(yè)28個行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能利用率的測算數(shù)據(jù),而且,論證了此測算數(shù)據(jù)的合理性(測算數(shù)據(jù)的合理性論證是新測算方法具備合理性的論據(jù)之二),并得出兩點認識： ①不能由產(chǎn)能過剩的概念或定義推出：如果產(chǎn)能利用率在一定時期內處于上升趨勢,就判斷在這段時期沒有出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過剩；如果產(chǎn)能利用率在一定時期內處于下降趨勢,就判斷在這段時期出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能過剩。 ②產(chǎn)能過剩是指產(chǎn)能利用率過低,低到其造成的負面影響超過正面效用,對企業(yè)生產(chǎn)、經(jīng)濟運行、乃至居民生活產(chǎn)生了全局性負面影響的情形。按照這個定義,過剩生產(chǎn)能力(即產(chǎn)能與實際產(chǎn)出之差)指標應該和產(chǎn)能利用率指標一起,用于判斷是否出現(xiàn)了產(chǎn)能過剩。如果在一段時期內,不僅產(chǎn)能利用率持續(xù)“低迷”,而且過剩生產(chǎn)能力快速擴張,那么,過剩生產(chǎn)能力的迅速擴大肯定容易造成產(chǎn)能過剩。 3.本文通過建立計量經(jīng)濟模型,分析產(chǎn)能利用水平與通貨膨脹之間的相互影響關系,以及固定資產(chǎn)投資對產(chǎn)能利用水平的影響作用；并且,立足于經(jīng)濟增長驅動模式角度分析我國產(chǎn)能過剩的深層次原因。結論是：固定資產(chǎn)投資的長期快速增長只是我國出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能過剩的表面上的原因,深層次原因在于我國改革開放以來驅動國內生產(chǎn)總值增長的理論模式是過分依賴資本形成總額(固定資產(chǎn)投資)型經(jīng)濟增長驅動模式。 4.本文提出有關我國產(chǎn)能過剩治理的對策建議,并指出需要進一步研究的問題。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, with the gradual deepening of reform and opening up, China's economy has not only increased rapidly, but also encountered three large capacity overcapacity in the period of 1998-2001 years. In the period of 1998-2001 years, the first large-scale overcapacity appeared in our country. In the period of 2003-2006 years, our country reappeared large capacity surplus again, and in 2009 our country broke out third times again. In addition, the three large-scale overcapacity in China has been worse and worse than the previous time. It is in this context that overcapacity has become one of the major economic management issues of our economic theory and macroeconomic management since 2008.
Although the domestic research on overcapacity involves two aspects of industrial economy and the whole national economy, this article defines overcapacity only refers to industrial overcapacity. The domestic and foreign scholars mainly have three perspectives on the problem of industrial productivity and productivity utilization: the internal perspective of enterprises, the comparative perspective and macro of enterprises (industries, regions). From the perspective of economic management, this paper will restrict the study of overcapacity in China in the perspective of macroeconomic management. Based on the macro economic management perspective, people pay attention to the level of industrial capacity utilization, the existence of industrial overcapacity and the degree of excess capacity, the cause of the production of overcapacity and its regulation and control, and how to judge and monitor industrial production. The calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization and the overcapacity monitoring and warning system are the two key and difficult problems in the study of overcapacity in China. This paper chooses the method of calculating the productivity and productivity utilization as the central topic.
This article analyzes three basic concepts in the overcapacity study - capacity, productivity utilization and overcapacity, and generalizes the concept of productivity into three categories: technical capacity, economic capacity and experience capacity. Accordingly, the methods of productivity and productivity utilization are divided into three categories: capacity and productivity utilization based on the concept of technical capacity The calculation method is based on the concept of economic productivity and the method of calculation of productivity and productivity utilization, and the method of productivity and productivity utilization based on the concept of empirical productivity. Then the central topic of this paper is further defined as the method of estimating productivity and productivity utilization based on the concept of technical capacity.
This article mainly includes four parts.
1. this paper reviews the relevant literature on overcapacity research at home and abroad, carries out a literature review, and identifies and defines the basic concepts in the three studies of capacity, productivity utilization and overcapacity.
(1) this article sums up the concept of productivity into three categories: technical capacity, economic capacity and experience capacity. This paper defines capacity as a technical capacity concept, that is, in the framework of a practical work arrangement in each plant of a given production system, the capital and labor force (or labor) is taken into account in the normal time of downtime. The maximum output level that the production system may achieve under full utilization of the capital invested.
(2) following the definition of the concept of productivity utilization by domestic and foreign scholars, the productivity utilization ratio is defined as the ratio of actual output to productivity. Of course, the actual output and capacity are generally reflected by the added value.
(3) combing the concept of overcapacity at home and abroad, putting forward the four principles of a unified conceptual system of overcapacity, and forming a unified conceptual system of overcapacity, and then discussing the advantages of a unified conceptual system of overcapacity. Less than 1 is the emergence of overcapacity.
2. this paper introduces a number of calculation methods about productivity and productivity utilization at home and abroad. On the basis of the analysis, comparison and evaluation of these methods, a new calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization is put forward, and then the capacity utilization of 28 industries in China's manufacturing industry in 1992-2011 years is obtained by using this new method. The calculated data of the rate.
(1) the classification and comparison of calculation methods. According to the different sources and characteristics of data based on various methods, this paper divides the calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization ratio into two categories: the calculation method based on the macro economic statistics data and the measurement method based on the results based on the micro enterprise. The former includes technical capacity and economy. Capacity of two capacity concept, the latter contains the concept of empirical productivity. The data base of the former is economic statistics, and the data base of the latter is collected through the sample survey of the enterprise.
From the four aspects of basic thought, error controllability, result stability and conceptual operability, this paper compares and evaluates the calculation method based on the macro economic statistics data and the results based on the micro enterprise survey. From the error controllability, the result stability and the probability of the maneuverability, the technology productivity is based on the three aspects. The calculation method of the concept is compared with the calculation method based on the concept of economic capacity.
(2) several specific calculation methods based on the concept of technical capacity. Because the concept of productivity defined in this paper is a technical capacity concept, and the macroeconomic management of our country pays special attention to the production capacity formed by the input of production data, especially the production capacity formed by fixed assets investment, this paper introduces the technical capacity based on the technical capacity. Several specific measurements of capacity and productivity utilization include Artus, peak trend, output / capital ratio, peak to peak, Shen Lisheng (1999), Yang Guang, Ma Xiaoying (2010), Gong Gang, Yang Lin (2002), etc. further, from the reasonableness of hypothesis, the characteristics of the data used (completely direct profit) With statistical data or incomplete direct use of statistical data, three aspects of the application form of technical capacity definition are compared, and the conclusions are two:
Each of the specific measurement methods has its advantages and disadvantages, which is more suitable for the actual situation of a certain period, a certain area and a certain industry, and the specific measurement method is more applicable to the calculation of this period, the area, the data of the productivity and productivity utilization of this industry.
In form, the method of measuring productivity and productivity utilization based on technical capacity can be divided into three categories: type I calculation method is to use the actual output, the capital stock and the labor force as the three indexes to calculate the productivity and productivity utilization. Type II calculation method is to use the actual output, the capital stock of the two indicators. Data (do not use labor data) to measure productivity and productivity utilization. Type III calculation method is to use only the actual output of the data (without the use of capital stock and labor data) to measure the productivity and productivity utilization. And, after comparing the advantages and disadvantages of these three types of measurement methods, it is determined that this paper is based on the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Based on the idea and principle of type III calculation method, a new method for calculating productivity and utilization rate of capacity is discussed.
(3) a new calculation method is proposed. On the basis of the analysis, comparison and evaluation of the multi angle calculation method, a new calculation method of productivity and productivity utilization is put forward, and the rationality of the hypothesis based on the new calculation method is demonstrated in detail. This is one of the reasonableness of the new calculation method; and then the new calculation is applied to the new calculation. The calculated data of the productivity utilization ratio of 28 industries in China are calculated for 1992-2011 years, and the reasonableness of the calculated data is demonstrated (the reasonableness argument of the calculated data is two of the reasonableness of the new calculation method), and two points are obtained.
The concept or definition of overcapacity can not be introduced: if productivity utilization is on the rise in a certain period of time, there is no excess capacity in this period. If productivity utilization is in a downward trend in a certain period, the excess capacity appears in this period.
(2) overcapacity refers to the situation in which the productivity of production, economic operation, and even the life of the residents is negatively affected by the low productivity utilization, which has a negative impact on the production, economic operation and even the life of the residents. If in a period of time, not only does the productivity utilization continue to be "sluggish", and the surplus production capacity expands rapidly, the rapid expansion of surplus production capacity will certainly lead to overcapacity.
3. by setting up a econometric model, this paper analyzes the relationship between the level of productivity utilization and inflation, and the impact of fixed assets investment on the level of capacity utilization; and based on the perspective of economic growth driving mode, the deep reason of China's overcapacity is analyzed. The conclusion is: the long-term investment of fixed assets. Rapid growth is only on the surface of China's overcapacity. The deep reason is that the theoretical model that drives the growth of GDP since China's reform and opening up is a model of excessive reliance on the total amount of capital formation (fixed assets investment) type of economic growth.
4. this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for overcapacity governance in China, and points out the problems that need further study.
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F124

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相關博士學位論文 前2條

1 何彬;基于窖藏行為的產(chǎn)能過剩形成機理及其波動性特征研究[D];吉林大學;2008年

2 劉林;微觀產(chǎn)能利用對我國宏觀資金流動性影響的實證分析[D];吉林大學;2009年

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