本文選題：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) + 碳排放��； 參考：《陜西師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：全球氣候變暖帶來(lái)的一系列環(huán)境和生態(tài)問(wèn)題,比如冰川消融、海平面上升淹沒(méi)沿海地區(qū)和各地區(qū)降水量差異加大等許多負(fù)面問(wèn)題,嚴(yán)重影響著人類(lèi)的生存環(huán)境和生產(chǎn)生活。全球氣候變暖影響因子中,二氧化碳的排放占溫室氣體排放總量的60%,因此,降低碳排放、發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)是人類(lèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要保障手段,國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者對(duì)如何發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)分別從不同的角度進(jìn)行了研究,包括發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的必要性論證與實(shí)現(xiàn)方式探討、進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與溫室氣體排放的關(guān)系的理論探討與實(shí)證研究。 本文選取陜西省為研究案例區(qū),采用回歸模型、庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(xiàn)分析陜西能源消耗帶來(lái)的碳排放量的動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì),運(yùn)用層次分析法、K均值聚類(lèi)方法、“脫鉤”理論等理論與方法,測(cè)算陜西省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平與空間差異,總結(jié)陜西省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平分類(lèi)特征及空間分異的形成機(jī)制,預(yù)測(cè)陜西省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)與碳排放變化趨勢(shì),并在此基礎(chǔ)上提出陜西省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展合理建議。本研究認(rèn)為： (1)陜西省能源消耗未來(lái)仍將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),能源結(jié)構(gòu)不斷調(diào)整 1989年～2010年,陜西省主要能源消耗量和消耗速率表現(xiàn)為：煤炭消耗量最大,其次是石油消耗量,再次是天然氣消耗量；消耗量速率對(duì)比表現(xiàn)為煤炭消耗增長(zhǎng)速率最小,天然氣消耗增長(zhǎng)速率最大,石油消耗次之。其中陜西省煤炭的消費(fèi)量所占比例由1989年的90.47%降低至2010年的74.51%,石油消耗量所占比例由1989年的9.53%增長(zhǎng)至2010年的17.12%,天然氣消耗量所占比例由1989年的0.01%增長(zhǎng)至2010年的8.37%。陜西省各種能源的消耗量整體呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),并且在未來(lái)仍將將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。 (2)陜西省碳排放增長(zhǎng)速率未來(lái)逐漸降低 1989年～2010年,陜西省的碳排放總體上呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),年均增長(zhǎng)8.7%,略低于陜西省同時(shí)期的年均生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率。由經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和碳排放之間的“脫鉤”關(guān)系和庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(xiàn)分析可知：陜西省碳排放受經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響很大,同時(shí)期陜西省碳排放增長(zhǎng)速率變化趨勢(shì)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)基本相同,但碳排放增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)要稍微慢于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的趨勢(shì),表明碳排放的滯后效應(yīng)。由陜西省能源增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)和碳排放增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)可知：兩者將持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),但兩者增長(zhǎng)速率都將降低。陜西省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段還處于高經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、高污染、高碳排放階段。陜西省的節(jié)能減排工作應(yīng)當(dāng)注重調(diào)整能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu),著重發(fā)展可再生能源。 (3)陜西省低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展空間差異特征 根據(jù)陜西省各地市的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平指數(shù)評(píng)價(jià),通過(guò)K均值聚類(lèi)方法將陜西省各地市聚類(lèi)分析,將陜西省各地市分為高碳區(qū)、相對(duì)高碳區(qū)和低碳區(qū)三個(gè)區(qū)域,其中榆林和渭南市屬于高碳區(qū),延安市、寶雞市、咸陽(yáng)市、楊陵區(qū)、銅川市和漢中市屬于相對(duì)高碳區(qū),安康市、商洛市和西安市屬于低碳區(qū)。 (4)各地市低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展措施建議 根據(jù)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,結(jié)合陜西省各地市的具體情況,提出一系列的發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的對(duì)策。對(duì)于高碳區(qū)的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,重點(diǎn)是改善該區(qū)的工業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),這是一個(gè)緩慢的過(guò)程,因此該區(qū)應(yīng)當(dāng)制定長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的規(guī)劃,降低重工業(yè)的產(chǎn)業(yè)比例,還應(yīng)當(dāng)改善該類(lèi)分區(qū)地的生態(tài)環(huán)境,增加碳匯能力。相對(duì)高碳區(qū)涉及市區(qū)較多,但都應(yīng)當(dāng)因地制宜的發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì),該分區(qū)很多市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展較為落后,所以就應(yīng)當(dāng)大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)水平,其次就更應(yīng)當(dāng)協(xié)調(diào)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展速率。低碳區(qū)的陜南兩市和西安市,在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面有著一系列的巨大差異,因此在今后的發(fā)展中,陜南地區(qū)在注重環(huán)境保護(hù)的同時(shí),以大力發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)為先；西安市在加強(qiáng)作為陜西省中心城市的同時(shí),促進(jìn)服務(wù)行業(yè)的發(fā)展,減少重工業(yè)的發(fā)展,加大高科技水平的產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展規(guī)模。選取循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)的手段,作為陜西省發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要手段,著重發(fā)展煤炭循環(huán)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,應(yīng)對(duì)以煤炭為主的能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:A series of environmental and ecological problems caused by global warming, such as the melting of glaciers, sea level rise inundation of coastal areas and the increase of precipitation in various regions, seriously affect the living environment and production and life of human beings. The carbon dioxide emissions account for the total emission of greenhouse gases among the factors of global warming. 60%, therefore, reducing carbon emissions and developing low carbon economy is an important guarantee for the sustainable development of human economic activities. Scholars at home and abroad have studied how to develop low carbon economy from different angles, including the necessity of developing low carbon economy and the discussion of the way of realizing the low carbon economy, and carrying out the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. The theoretical and Empirical Study of the Department.
In this paper, Shaanxi province is selected as a case study area, using regression model and Kuznets curve to analyze the dynamic change trend of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Shaanxi. Using the analytic hierarchy process, K means clustering method, "decoupling" theory and other theories and methods, it calculates the low carbon economic development level and spatial difference in Shaanxi Province, and sums up the low carbon in Shaanxi province. The characteristics of the level of economic development and the formation mechanism of spatial differentiation are used to predict the trend of low carbon economy and carbon emission in Shaanxi Province, and on this basis, a reasonable proposal for the development of low carbon economy in Shaanxi province is put forward.
(1) Shaanxi's energy consumption will continue to grow in the future, and the energy structure will continue to adjust.
From 1989 to 2010, the main energy consumption and consumption rate of Shaanxi province were as follows: coal consumption was the largest, followed by oil consumption, and again the consumption of natural gas; the comparison of consumption rate showed that the growth rate of coal consumption was the smallest, the growth rate of natural gas consumption was the largest, and the consumption of oil was the second. The consumption of coal in Shaanxi province was the same. The proportion of the account was reduced from 90.47% in 1989 to 74.51% in 2010. The proportion of oil consumption increased from 9.53% in 1989 to 17.12% in 2010. The proportion of natural gas consumption increased from 0.01% in 1989 to 8.37%. in 2010. The overall consumption of various energy sources in Shaanxi province was increasing, and it will continue to grow in the future.
(2) the growth rate of carbon emissions in Shaanxi will gradually decrease in the future.
From 1989 to 2010, the carbon emissions in Shaanxi province showed an overall growth trend, with an annual increase of 8.7%, slightly lower than the annual average annual growth rate of Shaanxi province. From the "decoupling" relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions and Kuznets curve analysis, the carbon emissions in Shaanxi province were greatly influenced by economic growth, and the carbon of Shaanxi Province in the same period was carbon. The trend of the emission growth rate is basically the same as the trend of economic growth, but the growth trend of carbon emissions is slightly slower than the trend of economic growth. It shows that the lag effect of carbon emissions is predicted by the trend of energy growth and the trend of carbon emission growth in Shaanxi province. Both of them will continue to increase, but both the growth rate of the two will be reduced. The economy of Shaanxi province will be reduced. The development stage is still in the stage of high economic growth, high pollution and high carbon emissions. The energy saving and emission reduction work in Shaanxi should be focused on adjusting the energy consumption structure and focusing on the development of renewable energy.
(3) the spatial difference characteristics of low carbon economy development in Shaanxi Province
According to the low carbon economic development level index of Shaanxi Province, the cluster analysis of Shaanxi provinces is classified by K means clustering method. The cities of Shaanxi province are divided into high carbon region, relatively high carbon area and low carbon region, of which Yulin and Weinan cities belong to high carbon region, Yanan City, Baoji City, Xianyang City, Yangling District, Tongchuan city and Hanzhoung. The city is relatively high carbon area, Ankang City, Shangluo and Xi'an belong to low carbon area.
(4) suggestions on the development of low carbon economy in various cities
According to the results of the evaluation, a series of countermeasures for developing low carbon economy are put forward in combination with the specific situation of cities in Shaanxi province. For the low carbon economy development of high carbon region, the emphasis is to improve the industrial structure of the area, which is a slow process. Therefore, the region should formulate long-term plan to reduce the industrial proportion of heavy industry, and should also improve the industry. The ecological environment of this kind of area will increase the capacity of carbon sequestration. The relatively high carbon area involves more urban areas, but all of them should develop economy in the light of local conditions. Many cities in this area are backward in economic development. Therefore, the economic level should be developed vigorously. Secondly, the development rate of the second industry and the third industry should be coordinated more. The two cities of South Shaanxi in the low carbon region should be coordinated. And Xi'an City, in the economic development, industrial structure and so on a series of huge differences, so in the future development, the south of Shaanxi Province, while paying attention to environmental protection, in order to vigorously develop the economy, while strengthening the city of Xi'an as the central city of Shaanxi, promote the development of the service industry, reduce the development of heavy industry, and increase the height of the city. The scale of industrial development of scientific and technological level. As an important means of developing low carbon economy in Shaanxi Province, we should focus on developing the development mode of coal recycling economy, and deal with the energy consumption structure based on coal.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：陜西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F127;X22

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