本文選題：人口老齡化 + 居民消費(fèi)��； 參考：《南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：人口老齡化問題對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響持續(xù)而深遠(yuǎn)，并將成為制約未來社會發(fā)展的重要因素。在吸收國內(nèi)外學(xué)者各類研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，本文從理論和實(shí)證的角度分析中國人口老齡化對居民消費(fèi)產(chǎn)生的異質(zhì)性影響。 首先，使用時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型分析人口老齡化和居民消費(fèi)之間相關(guān)性的存在性，得出人口老齡化是引起中國各地區(qū)居民消費(fèi)變化的一個顯著因素；其次，運(yùn)用方差分析論證人口老齡化對居民消費(fèi)的影響存在的異質(zhì)性，在國家層面上，，人口老齡化對居民消費(fèi)存在顯著異質(zhì)性影響，這與被考察國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r有關(guān)系；再次，利用1993年-2010年的中國各省市老年撫養(yǎng)比和人均居民消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)，基于坎貝爾和曼昆的混合模型，建立符合中國國情的老年撫養(yǎng)比與居民消費(fèi)增量之間的消費(fèi)模型，發(fā)現(xiàn)國內(nèi)不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)程度地區(qū)，老年人口撫養(yǎng)比對居民消費(fèi)增量的影響系數(shù)是不同的；最后，通過研究老年人口撫養(yǎng)比對居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)影響，研究人口老齡化對消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的異質(zhì)性影響。 實(shí)證研究結(jié)果表明，人口老齡化是引起居民消費(fèi)變化的顯著因素，且人口老齡化對居民消費(fèi)的影響存在異質(zhì)性。異質(zhì)性體現(xiàn)在國家的層面上，不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r國家之間這種影響是有差異的，老齡化對于處在不同工業(yè)化階段國家的居民消費(fèi)影響顯著且存在門限特征：發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)人口老齡化程度高、居民消費(fèi)水平高，欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的人口老齡化程度低、居民消費(fèi)水平低；異質(zhì)性體現(xiàn)在國內(nèi)地區(qū)的層面上，不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展程度地區(qū)之間的這種影響有差異，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)正向影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)向影響。對于消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的異質(zhì)性影響，隨著老年人口數(shù)量增加，普通城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭對食品、醫(yī)療保健和居住三者的支出增加最為明顯，對人均交通通信消費(fèi)和教育文化娛樂服務(wù)消費(fèi)的支出減少最為明顯。通過以上實(shí)證研究得出的結(jié)論，為決策部門在不同經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段適時制定相應(yīng)決策提供理論支持，達(dá)到正向引導(dǎo)居民消費(fèi)水平、優(yōu)化居民消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)的目的。
[Abstract]:The problem of population aging has a lasting and far-reaching impact on the economy and will become an important factor restricting the development of society in the future. On the basis of absorbing all kinds of research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper analyzes the heterogeneous influence of aging population on the consumption of residents in China from the theoretical and empirical point of view. Firstly, using time series data and using vector autoregressive model to analyze the existence of correlation between population aging and residents' consumption, it is concluded that population aging is a significant factor that causes the change of residents' consumption in various regions of China. Analysis of variance is used to demonstrate the heterogeneity of the influence of population aging on resident consumption. At the national level, the aging of population has significant heterogeneity effect on resident consumption, which is related to the economic development of the country under investigation. Based on the data of elderly dependency ratio and per capita resident consumption from 1993 to 2010, and based on the mixed model of Campbell and Mancun, the consumption model between the elderly dependency ratio and the resident consumption increment, which is suitable for China's national conditions, is established. It is found that the influence coefficient of resident consumption increment is different in different economic developed areas of China. Finally, by studying the influence of elderly population dependency ratio on resident consumption structure, This paper studies the heterogeneous effect of population aging on consumption structure. The empirical results show that the aging of the population is a significant factor in the change of resident consumption, and the influence of the aging of the population on the consumption of residents is heterogeneity. Heterogeneity is reflected at the national level, and there are differences in this effect among countries with different economic development conditions. Aging has a significant impact on the consumption of residents in different industrialized countries and has the following characteristics: the degree of population aging in developed areas is high, the level of resident consumption is high, the level of population aging in less developed areas is low, and the level of residents' consumption is low; The heterogeneity is reflected in the level of the domestic region. There are differences in this kind of influence between the different economic development degree regions, the economic developed areas present positive influence, and the economic underdeveloped areas have the negative influence. As for the heterogeneity of the consumption structure, as the number of the elderly population increases, the average urban households' expenditure on food, health care and housing is the most obvious. The decrease in per capita consumption of transportation, communication and educational, cultural and recreational services was most evident. The conclusions obtained from the above empirical study provide theoretical support for policy-making departments to make corresponding decisions in different stages of economic development in order to achieve the purpose of positively guiding the consumption level of residents and optimizing the consumption structure of residents.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.2

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