本文選題：低碳經(jīng)濟(jì) + 碳排放��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：目前，為應(yīng)對(duì)全球氣候變化與資源環(huán)境相關(guān)問題，世界各國(guó)紛紛把發(fā)展低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)作為自己國(guó)家的基本發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略之一。論文選擇國(guó)家首批低碳試點(diǎn)城市保定市為研究對(duì)象，建立第一產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放仿真模型，研究碳排放的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)和優(yōu)化方案，具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義和理論價(jià)值。 在大量查閱國(guó)內(nèi)外碳排放量估算方法和模型的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)基礎(chǔ)上，分析了現(xiàn)有估算方法和模型的局限性。選擇保定市第一產(chǎn)業(yè)作為碳排放系統(tǒng)研究對(duì)象，分析了該系統(tǒng)的排碳現(xiàn)狀及碳排放影響因素，，基于碳源和碳匯兩個(gè)角度構(gòu)建了相應(yīng)指標(biāo)體系和計(jì)量模型，測(cè)算了該系統(tǒng)的碳排放總量；基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論思想，構(gòu)建了碳排放系統(tǒng)的動(dòng)力學(xué)模型，繪制了系統(tǒng)的因果關(guān)系圖和流程圖，通過對(duì)模型進(jìn)行測(cè)試和檢驗(yàn)，確認(rèn)系統(tǒng)模型的有效性，并運(yùn)用模型模擬了保定市碳排放的動(dòng)態(tài)變化趨勢(shì)；基于節(jié)能、低碳和強(qiáng)化低碳三種情景，通過調(diào)整變量參數(shù)，設(shè)計(jì)了三種方案對(duì)保定市第一產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行了的情景模擬。通過模型預(yù)測(cè)及比較分析可得，強(qiáng)化低碳在理論上是較為理想的發(fā)展模式，保定市的低碳城市建設(shè)應(yīng)該積極向強(qiáng)化低碳情景靠攏。最后，針對(duì)保定市低碳農(nóng)業(yè)、低碳林業(yè)和低碳畜牧業(yè)的發(fā)展分別給出了相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:At present, in order to deal with the problems related to global climate change and resources and environment, countries all over the world regard the development of low-carbon economy as one of their basic development strategies. In this paper, the first batch of low-carbon pilot city Baoding City is selected as the research object, and the simulation model of carbon emissions from primary industry is established. It has important practical significance and theoretical value to study the development trend and optimization scheme of carbon emissions. Based on a large number of references on carbon emission estimation methods and models at home and abroad, the limitations of existing methods and models are analyzed. This paper selects the primary industry of Baoding as the research object of carbon emission system, analyzes the current situation of carbon emission and the influencing factors of carbon emission, and constructs the corresponding index system and measurement model based on the two angles of carbon source and carbon sink. Based on the theory of system dynamics, the dynamic model of carbon emission system is constructed, and the causality diagram and flowchart of the system are drawn, and the model is tested and tested. Confirm the validity of the system model, and use the model to simulate the dynamic change trend of the carbon emission in Baoding city, based on the three scenarios of energy saving, low carbon and enhanced low carbon, by adjusting the variable parameters, Three schemes were designed to simulate the carbon emission trend of primary industry in Baoding City. Through model prediction and comparative analysis, it can be concluded that strengthening low carbon is an ideal development model in theory, and the construction of low carbon city in Baoding should be actively closer to the situation of strengthening low carbon. Finally, the development of low carbon agriculture, low carbon forestry and low carbon animal husbandry in Baoding City were put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：N941.3;F124.5

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本文編號(hào)：1913615