發(fā)布時間：2018-05-17 21:48

  本文選題：經(jīng)濟增長 + 稅收負擔��； 參考：《浙江財經(jīng)大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：稅收負擔與經(jīng)濟增長的相互關(guān)系問題一直是學術(shù)界關(guān)注的焦點。國外學者對兩者的關(guān)系進行了較為深入的理論分析和實證探討。國內(nèi)學者在20世紀90年代以前，大多數(shù)進行的是兩者的理論研究。近十年來，越來越多我國學者開始運用國外先進的計量經(jīng)濟分析方法，對稅收負擔和經(jīng)濟增長的關(guān)系問題進行了各個層面的實證研究，其運用的方法各異，得出的結(jié)論也各不相同，但是學者們的研究成果基本都是對全國的稅收負擔與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系進行分析，而對地區(qū)的稅收負擔與經(jīng)濟增長之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系則分析的非常少。本文試圖從新的視角以浙江省這個省份作為研究主題，運用先進的VAR分析技術(shù)具體分析浙江省的稅收負擔與經(jīng)濟增長的實證關(guān)系。 本文采用定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的的方法，更加注重實證研究的方法，在對浙江省稅收負擔現(xiàn)狀的分析基礎(chǔ)上，通過對浙江省稅收負擔與經(jīng)濟增長的整體分析得出：同全國稅負水平來比較，是遠遠低于全國水平，以2011年的數(shù)據(jù)為例，全國的宏觀稅負水平到達了18.98%，而浙江省的稅負水平只有9.13%，低于全國9.85個百分點，浙江省的稅收負擔水平與經(jīng)濟增長之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系，兩者之間存在一定的負相關(guān)，并且相互影響。利用VAR模型對浙江省稅收負擔對經(jīng)濟增長的分析可知：中口徑宏觀稅負(LNTAX)對其自身的一個標準差沖擊做出的反應增加值約為0.0667,到第三期達到最大約為0.0908，第三期后逐漸下降,到第14期趨近于0；中口徑宏觀稅負(LNTAX)對財政支出(LNBO)的反應第一期為0，而后逐漸呈現(xiàn)負響應，到第六期達到最小為-0.0469，而后逐漸趨近與0；中口徑宏觀稅負(LNTAX)對GDP的一個標準差沖擊影響在前7期處于上升態(tài)勢，而后逐漸趨近0。中口徑宏觀稅負(LNTAX)預測方差由LNTAX擾動引起的比重為99.68%，由LNBO引起的擾動為0.3212%，由LNGDP引起的擾動為0.0024%，隨著時間的推移，由其他兩個因素引起的擾動的比重不斷加大，但是到第十四期之前是不穩(wěn)定的，十四期之后基本穩(wěn)定。 針對上述實證結(jié)論，本文提出浙江省經(jīng)濟還存在的一些問題，指出浙江省經(jīng)濟存在的不足，提出合理的政策建議和改進措施：合理調(diào)配各個稅種之間的比重，，強化稅收征管的力度，減少稅源的流失；推進浙江省的非稅收收入的改革，盡量使非稅收收入納入稅收收入的管理范圍之中，進行集中的管理，減少對非稅收收入管理的成本；加強浙江省的稅收管理的信息化，采用無紙化的高科技征收管理，減少人力資源成本，提高管理效益；促進浙江省地區(qū)的綜合均衡的發(fā)展，使得浙江省經(jīng)濟又好又快發(fā)展，提高經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平。
[Abstract]:The relationship between tax burden and economic growth has always been the focus of academic attention. Foreign scholars have made a deep theoretical analysis and empirical study on the relationship between the two. Before the 1990's, most of the domestic scholars carried out the theoretical research of both. In the past ten years, more and more Chinese scholars began to use advanced econometric analysis methods from abroad, and conducted empirical research on the relationship between tax burden and economic growth at various levels. The conclusions are also different, but the research results of scholars are basically to analyze the relationship between tax burden and economic growth in the whole country, but the correlation between tax burden and economic growth in the region is very little. This paper attempts to analyze the empirical relationship between tax burden and economic growth in Zhejiang Province from a new perspective by using advanced VAR analysis technology. This paper adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and pays more attention to the method of empirical research, based on the analysis of the present situation of tax burden in Zhejiang Province. Through the overall analysis of the tax burden and economic growth in Zhejiang Province, it is concluded that compared with the national tax burden level, it is far lower than the national level. Take the data from 2011 as an example. The national macro tax burden level has reached 18.98 percent, while the tax burden level in Zhejiang Province is only 9.13 percent, which is lower than the whole country's 9.85 percent. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the tax burden level in Zhejiang Province and economic growth, and there is a certain negative correlation between the two levels. And interact with each other. The analysis of the tax burden on economic growth in Zhejiang Province by using VAR model shows that the added value of the response to a standard deviation shock made by the medium caliber macro tax burden is about 0.0667, and the maximum value is about 0.0908 in the third period, and then decreases gradually after the third period. By the 14th period, the response of the medium caliber macro tax burden LNTAX to the fiscal expenditure was zero in the first phase, and then the response was negative gradually. By the sixth period, the minimum was -0.0469, and then approached to 0. The impact of a standard deviation shock on GDP was in an upward trend in the first seven periods, but gradually approaching 0. 5% in the first seven periods. The proportion of prediction variance caused by LNTAX disturbance is 99.68, the disturbance caused by LNBO is 0.3212and the disturbance caused by LNGDP is 0.0024.The proportion of disturbance caused by the other two factors has been increasing over time. But before the fourteenth is unstable, after the fourteenth is basically stable. In view of the above empirical conclusions, this paper points out some problems existing in the economy of Zhejiang Province, points out the shortcomings of the economy of Zhejiang Province, and puts forward some reasonable policy suggestions and improvement measures: rational allocation of the proportion of various taxes, To strengthen the tax collection and management, to reduce the loss of tax sources, to promote the reform of non-tax revenue in Zhejiang Province, to bring non-tax revenue into the management scope of tax revenue as far as possible, to carry out centralized management, and to reduce the cost of non-tax revenue management; To strengthen the informationization of tax management in Zhejiang Province, to adopt paperless hi-tech collection and management, to reduce the cost of human resources, and to improve the efficiency of management; to promote the comprehensive and balanced development of Zhejiang Province; and to make the economy of Zhejiang Province develop well and rapidly. We will raise the level of economic development.
【學位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.42;F124.1;F224

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前4條

1 李永友;我國稅收負擔對經(jīng)濟增長影響的經(jīng)驗分析[J];財經(jīng)研究;2004年12期

2 宋文新,姚紹學;拉弗曲線的拓展與最優(yōu)宏觀稅負[J];財政研究;2003年11期

3 王書瑤;;財政支出最大與國民產(chǎn)出最大不相容原理[J];數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究;1988年10期

4 馬海濤;肖鵬;;中國稅制改革30年回顧與展望[J];稅務研究;2008年07期

本文編號：1902980