本文選題：城市化 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長��； 參考：《上海經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2014年02期

【摘要】：城市化是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必經(jīng)過程,但城市化一定能夠促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長嗎?本文選取戰(zhàn)后城市化水平快速發(fā)展的19個(gè)國家建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,通過協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、Granger因果檢驗(yàn)和面板向量自回歸模型探討城市化與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的相關(guān)關(guān)系。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):二者存在長期穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是城市化水平提高的原因,但城市化并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的原因;二者呈現(xiàn)弱正相關(guān),相互解釋程度極低。本文認(rèn)為單純將城市化作為政策工具用以推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,很難實(shí)現(xiàn)。一者,借鑒拉美地區(qū)發(fā)展中國家經(jīng)驗(yàn),與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平不匹配的城市化使經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展陷入困境的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)極大;二者,發(fā)達(dá)國家往往收入差距小,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展主要依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步和資本積累,城市化更多是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一種必然結(jié)果。最后,給出我國在發(fā)展新型城鎮(zhèn)化過程中的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:Urbanization is a necessary process of economic development, but can urbanization promote economic growth? In this paper, a panel data model is established in 19 countries with rapid development of postwar urbanization. The correlation between urbanization and economic growth is discussed through co-integration test, Granger causality test and panel vector autoregressive model. It is found that there is a long-term stable relationship between the two, and economic growth is the reason for the improvement of urbanization level, but urbanization is not the cause of economic growth, and the two are weakly positive correlation, and the degree of mutual explanation is very low. This paper argues that it is difficult to use urbanization as a policy tool to promote economic growth. For one thing, drawing lessons from the experiences of developing countries in Latin America, urbanization, which does not match the level of economic development, poses a great risk that economic development will fall into difficulties; the income gap between the developed countries and the developed countries is often small. Economic development mainly depends on technological progress and capital accumulation. Urbanization is an inevitable result of economic development. Finally, the paper gives some policy suggestions in the process of developing new urbanization.
【作者單位】： 華東師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【分類號】：F299.1;F112;F224

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本文編號：1902969