本文選題：匯率預(yù)期 + 人民幣��； 參考：《南京理工大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,中國經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速增長、對世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)度逐漸增加,中國對外貿(mào)易的依存度不斷加深,凈出口額和外國直接投資“雙順差”使得外匯儲備不斷膨脹,美元不斷貶值、境外資金大量涌入,使得人民幣不斷面臨升值壓力。這些壓力主要有兩種表現(xiàn)：國際上要求人民幣升值,市場預(yù)期人民幣升值。人民幣匯率預(yù)期不僅僅影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)主體參與國際貿(mào)易的行為,還使得大量的國外資金進(jìn)入我國,從而對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的方方面面造成影響。由于國際收支平衡、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、穩(wěn)定物價以及增加就業(yè)是中國宏觀調(diào)控的目標(biāo),因此,研究人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期對國際收支、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、物價以及就業(yè)的影響效應(yīng),對中國未來宏觀調(diào)控方向具有理論意義。 本文首先對國內(nèi)外學(xué)者在匯率預(yù)期、匯率預(yù)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響兩個方面的研究加以總結(jié)和討論,進(jìn)而闡述有關(guān)研究人民幣匯率預(yù)期對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的理論基礎(chǔ)—匯率預(yù)期對宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,在此基礎(chǔ)上,以人民幣無本金交割遠(yuǎn)期外匯交易(NDF)匯率作為人民幣匯率預(yù)期的替代變量,選取匯率預(yù)期影響的五個變量：資本凈流入、貿(mào)易差額、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、物價水平以及失業(yè)率,建立六個變量間的VAR模型,分析NDF與其余變量間的Granger因果關(guān)系,脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解。本文認(rèn)為：變量之間具有穩(wěn)定的長期均衡關(guān)系；人民幣匯率預(yù)期變動波動是資本凈流入、貿(mào)易收支以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長變動波動的格蘭杰原因,而不是物價水平以及失業(yè)率變動波動的格蘭杰原因；人民幣匯率升值預(yù)期使得資本凈流入、失業(yè)率出現(xiàn)長期下降,使得貿(mào)易收支順差、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長以及物價水平出現(xiàn)長期上升。最后,在理論分析和實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economy has grown rapidly, its contribution to world economic growth has gradually increased, China's dependence on foreign trade has deepened, and the net exports and "double surplus" of foreign direct investment have made foreign exchange reserves continuously inflate. The depreciation of the dollar and the influx of foreign funds have made the renminbi under constant pressure to appreciate. There are two main manifestations of these pressures: international demand for a stronger yuan, and the market expects the yuan to appreciate. The expectation of RMB exchange rate not only affects the behavior of economic subjects participating in international trade, but also makes a lot of foreign funds come into our country, which has an impact on all aspects of macroeconomic. Since the balance of payments, economic growth, stable prices and increasing employment are the goals of China's macroeconomic regulation and control, this paper studies the effects of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectations on the balance of payments, economic growth, price and employment. It has theoretical significance to the future macro-control direction of China. Firstly, this paper summarizes and discusses the research on the exchange rate expectation and the economic impact of the exchange rate expectation at home and abroad. On the basis of the theoretical basis of the study on the impact of RMB exchange rate expectation on macroeconomic, the transmission mechanism of exchange rate expectation on macroeconomic impact is expounded. In this paper, the NDF exchange rate is used as the alternative variable of RMB exchange rate expectation, and five variables are selected as follows: net capital inflow, trade balance, economic growth, price level and unemployment rate. The VAR model between six variables is established, and the Granger causality, impulse response and variance decomposition between NDF and other variables are analyzed. This paper holds that there is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between variables, and that the volatility of RMB exchange rate is the Granger reason for the fluctuation of net capital inflow, trade balance and economic growth. Not the Granger cause of price levels and the volatility of unemployment, which is expected to lead to a net inflow of capital and a long-term decline in the unemployment rate, leading to a trade surplus, economic growth and a long-term rise in price levels. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F832.6;F124

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本文編號：1895661