本文選題：物價水平 + 城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來的30余年間,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)以超過9%的平均增速呈現(xiàn)出高速增長的優(yōu)異態(tài)勢。但近幾年來,從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長結(jié)構(gòu)來看,支撐我國經(jīng)濟(jì)高速運(yùn)行的投資和出口兩駕馬車對經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動作用已經(jīng)日益式微,下一輪中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的中高速增長主動力源必須轉(zhuǎn)向拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的第三駕馬車——消費(fèi)。而實(shí)際情況是,消費(fèi)在拉動和支撐我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長時卻不斷呈現(xiàn)出疲軟狀態(tài)。學(xué)術(shù)界對影響居民消費(fèi)的相關(guān)因素進(jìn)行了廣泛的研究和討論,充分意識到物價水平的波動是一個不容忽視的變量指標(biāo)。物價水平是經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況的晴雨表,要了解整個經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行狀況及其發(fā)展趨勢就必須要準(zhǔn)確分析和預(yù)測物價的波動趨勢。近年來我國物價上漲已成為一個不爭的事實(shí),“豆你玩”、“蒜你狠”、“姜你軍”、“糖高宗”等網(wǎng)絡(luò)新詞的不斷涌現(xiàn)表明物價的持續(xù)快速上漲對居民的日常消費(fèi)生活造成了重大影響。 物價水平的波動通過改變居民的購買力、消費(fèi)心理和跨期消費(fèi)行為等途徑對居民的消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生影響,本文基于中國城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出和城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)價格指數(shù)數(shù)據(jù),通過構(gòu)建物價水平——消費(fèi)支出的計量模型,采用相關(guān)性分析法和最小二乘法對物價水平和城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出之間的動態(tài)關(guān)系從總量分析和結(jié)構(gòu)分析兩個方面分別進(jìn)行了計量驗(yàn)證,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：1.物價水平與城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)總支出呈高度的相關(guān)關(guān)系,各類消費(fèi)支出項(xiàng)目對其價格水平波動的反應(yīng)程度不一,其中,交通通訊支出和教育文娛服務(wù)支出與其各自的價格水平呈現(xiàn)出較高的相關(guān)關(guān)系；2.短期物價水平的上升,會促進(jìn)城鎮(zhèn)居民增加其消費(fèi)支出；但持續(xù)的物價上漲會對城鎮(zhèn)居民消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生抑制作用,且這種抑制作用會隨著時間的增加而增強(qiáng)；3.不同收入群體之間受物價上漲而引起的消費(fèi)支出增加呈現(xiàn)U型變化,而且持續(xù)的物價上漲對低收入群體的消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生更為明顯的抑制作用；4.各類消費(fèi)支出項(xiàng)目受到物價水平波動的時滯性效應(yīng)都不太顯著,但仍表現(xiàn)為正向關(guān)系,即一定程度的消費(fèi)慣性。在本文的最后,根據(jù)前文的機(jī)理分析和實(shí)證研究的結(jié)論,就穩(wěn)定物價水平、擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需、保護(hù)低收入群體、引導(dǎo)居民理性消費(fèi)等方面提出了相關(guān)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years since the reform and opening up, the average growth rate of China's economy has been increasing at a high speed with an average growth rate of more than 9%. But in recent years, from the point of view of the structure of economic growth, the role of the two caravan of investment and export, which supports the high-speed operation of our economy, has been declining day by day. The main source of power for the next round of high-speed growth in China must shift to consumption, the third caravan that drives growth. The actual situation is that consumption in pulling and supporting China's economic growth is constantly showing a weak state. The academic circles have carried on the extensive research and the discussion to the related factor which affects the resident consumption, fully realized that the fluctuation of the price level is a variable index which can not be ignored. Price level is a barometer of economic operation. In order to understand the operation of the whole economy and its development trend, it is necessary to accurately analyze and predict the price fluctuation trend. In recent years, rising prices in China have become an indisputable fact: "you play with beans", "you are ruthless with garlic", "Jiang you Jun", The continuous emergence of new online words such as Sugar Gaozong shows that the sustained and rapid rise in prices has had a significant impact on the daily consumption of residents. The fluctuation of price level has an effect on the consumption expenditure by changing the purchasing power of the residents, the consumption psychology and the intertemporal consumption behavior. This paper is based on the data of the consumption expenditure of the Chinese urban residents and the consumer price index of the urban residents. Through the construction of price level-consumption expenditure measurement model, The correlation analysis and the least square method are used to verify the dynamic relationship between the price level and the consumption expenditure of urban residents in terms of the total amount analysis and the structure analysis. The empirical results show that: 1. There is a high correlation between the price level and the total consumption expenditure of urban residents. There is a high correlation between the expenditure on transportation and communication and the expenditure on educational and recreational services and their respective price levels. Short-term price level increases will promote urban residents to increase their consumer spending, but sustained price increases will have a restraining effect on urban consumer spending, and this inhibition will increase with the increase of time. The increase of consumer expenditure caused by price increase among different income groups is U-shaped, and the sustained price increase has a more obvious inhibitory effect on consumer expenditure of low-income groups. The delay-effect of all kinds of consumer expenditure items affected by the fluctuation of price level is not obvious, but it still shows a positive relationship, that is, consumption inertia to a certain extent. At the end of this paper, according to the mechanism analysis and the conclusion of the empirical research, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on stabilizing the price level, expanding domestic demand, protecting the low income groups, and guiding the residents to consume rationally.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F726;F126.1

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