本文選題：溫室氣體減排 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展　； 參考：《中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于溫室氣體的大量積累，全球生態(tài)嚴(yán)重失衡，生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到破壞，“溫室氣體減排”也應(yīng)運(yùn)成為無(wú)國(guó)界的全球關(guān)注點(diǎn)。為減少溫室氣體排放，在聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化大會(huì)的號(hào)召下，世界各國(guó)紛紛做出減排承諾并付諸努力。在國(guó)際趨勢(shì)的大背景下，為順應(yīng)我國(guó)“到2020年單位國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%到45%”的減排目標(biāo)，作為經(jīng)濟(jì)大省和碳排放大省的山東省必須將節(jié)能減排與低碳作為未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)取得發(fā)展的必由之路。但隨著工業(yè)化、城市化進(jìn)程加快和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)升級(jí)，山東能源消費(fèi)需求呈剛性增長(zhǎng)，資源環(huán)境約束日趨強(qiáng)化，“十二五”節(jié)能減排形勢(shì)更加嚴(yán)峻，任務(wù)更加艱巨。鑒于此，山東如何以溫室氣體減排為背景，在經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展進(jìn)程中有力減排，，同時(shí)保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增速和人民生活水平的提升是本文需要解決的問(wèn)題。 基于前人的研究成果，結(jié)合山東省自身實(shí)際，綜合運(yùn)用定性和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法，本文在分析山東溫室氣體排放現(xiàn)狀的基礎(chǔ)上，找到造成山東省嚴(yán)峻減排形勢(shì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)原因，通過(guò)建立協(xié)整模型和狀態(tài)空間模型，研究了CO2排放及其經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)影響因素人均GDP、能源強(qiáng)度、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、城市化水平和對(duì)外貿(mào)易之間的協(xié)整關(guān)系和各因素對(duì)CO2排放影響的變動(dòng)性特征。結(jié)果表明，CO2排放與各經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)因素之間存在長(zhǎng)期的均衡關(guān)系，能源強(qiáng)度和人均GDP為兩大主導(dǎo)因素，這為減排背景下山東經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)如何發(fā)展提供了著力點(diǎn)；且碳排放彈性系數(shù)的波動(dòng)性特征說(shuō)明經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展過(guò)程中制度與政策機(jī)制的調(diào)整等也會(huì)在很大程度上影響減排效果。此外借助情景分析，對(duì)山東省不同經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展路徑下的2015年二氧化碳排放量進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，為選擇適合山東省情的低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展方式提供參考。最后根據(jù)以上實(shí)證結(jié)果，結(jié)合山東省現(xiàn)實(shí)情況和經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展規(guī)律，為山東經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展提出建設(shè)性建議。
[Abstract]:Due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases, the global ecological imbalance and the destruction of the ecological environment, the "greenhouse gas emission reduction" should also become a global concern without national boundaries. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, at the call of the United Nations Climate change Conference, countries around the world have made pledges and efforts to reduce emissions. Against the background of international trends, in order to comply with China's target of reducing carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP by 2020 by 40% to 45% compared with 2005, As a big economic province and a big carbon emission province, Shandong Province must take energy saving and low carbon emission reduction as the only way to achieve economic and social development in the future. However, with the industrialization, the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous upgrading of consumption structure, the energy consumption demand of Shandong is increasing rigidly, the resource and environment constraints are being strengthened day by day, and the situation of energy saving and emission reduction in the 12th Five-Year Plan is more severe and the task is more arduous. In view of this, how to reduce emissions in Shandong with greenhouse gas emission reduction as the background, in the process of economic and social development, and at the same time to ensure the economic growth rate and the improvement of people's living standards is the problem to be solved in this paper. Based on the previous research results and the reality of Shandong Province, this paper analyzes the current situation of greenhouse gas emissions in Shandong Province by using the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis. To find out the economic and social reasons that cause the severe emission reduction situation in Shandong Province, through the establishment of cointegration model and state space model, this paper studies the CO2 emissions and their economic and social factors per capita, energy intensity, industrial structure. The cointegration relationship between urbanization level and foreign trade and the variable characteristics of the influence of various factors on CO2 emissions. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between CO _ 2 emission and various economic and social factors. Energy intensity and GDP per capita are the two main factors, which provides a key point for the development of Shandong economy and society under the background of emission reduction. The volatility of carbon emission elasticity coefficient indicates that the adjustment of system and policy mechanism in the process of economic and social development will also affect the emission reduction effect to a great extent. In addition, with the help of scenario analysis, the carbon dioxide emissions in 2015 under different economic and social development paths in Shandong Province are predicted, which provides a reference for the selection of low-carbon economic and social development modes suitable for Shandong Province. Finally, according to the above empirical results, combined with the reality of Shandong Province and the law of economic and social development, the author puts forward constructive suggestions for Shandong's economic and social development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)石油大學(xué)（華東）
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：X22;F127

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本文編號(hào)：1826727