本文選題：陸資入島 + 雙層博弈　； 參考：《上海國際問題研究院》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系是推動兩岸關(guān)系健康發(fā)展的積極因素，但受各種因素影響，長期以來兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系并未實(shí)現(xiàn)正�；貏e是投資關(guān)系嚴(yán)重不平衡，大陸資本長期被排除在臺灣島外。2008年馬英九上臺執(zhí)政，兩岸關(guān)系發(fā)生歷史性的積極轉(zhuǎn)變，與此同時，臺灣受國際金融危機(jī)影響，經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨嚴(yán)峻形勢。面對內(nèi)外壓力，臺當(dāng)局提出了開放陸資入島政策，以提振臺灣經(jīng)濟(jì)。本文嘗試運(yùn)用普特南的雙層博弈理論，分別從島內(nèi)、島外兩個層面分析解讀臺灣當(dāng)局的開放陸資入島政策。在介紹完雙層博弈理論之后，文章首先對陸資入島的緣起、過程、成就進(jìn)行梳理。在此基礎(chǔ)上依據(jù)雙層博弈理論的分析框架，對陸資入島起推動、制約作用的島內(nèi)外因素分別進(jìn)行評析，最后依據(jù)理論分析，預(yù)測陸資入島的未來發(fā)展前景。 從雙層博弈的視角來看，臺灣當(dāng)局開放陸資入島的第一層次，即島外層面的關(guān)鍵推動、制約因素是大陸與美國。第二層次博弈的主要對手是民進(jìn)黨及綠營支持者。本文認(rèn)為，在國際金融危機(jī)的大背景下，美國、大陸、臺灣三方在臺海局勢穩(wěn)定上有著共同利益，三方都愿意兩岸通過協(xié)商對話加強(qiáng)合作，特別是通過提升經(jīng)濟(jì)合作水平來鞏固兩岸關(guān)系和平發(fā)展的局面。就島內(nèi)而言，馬英九當(dāng)局提出開放陸資入島政策，雖然也遭到了民進(jìn)黨一定程度的阻撓，但并未對馬英九當(dāng)局的決策構(gòu)成影響，這其中最大的原因在于，面對嚴(yán)峻的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢，加強(qiáng)與大陸的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作已經(jīng)成為島內(nèi)共識,民進(jìn)黨雖然反對，但未能起到?jīng)Q定性作用。正是在這種島內(nèi)、島外都有利的決策背景下，開放陸資入島得以順理成章、水到渠成。但由于島內(nèi)獨(dú)特的政治生態(tài)及兩岸關(guān)系現(xiàn)實(shí)，為防止陸資入島對臺灣相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè)形成沖擊，臺當(dāng)局在陸資入島的政策設(shè)計與規(guī)劃上，顯得十分小心謹(jǐn)慎，具體措施上更是處處設(shè)防。在國際金融危機(jī)的影響還未退去，馬英九成功連任，，陸資入島正面效應(yīng)的初步顯現(xiàn)等因素作用下，未來臺當(dāng)局的陸資入島政策將朝著更加開放的方向發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Economic relations between the two sides of the strait are a positive factor in promoting the healthy development of cross-strait relations. However, affected by various factors, cross-strait economic relations have not been normalized for a long time, especially the serious imbalance in investment relations.Mainland capital has long been excluded from Taiwan. In 2008, when Ma Yingjiu came to power, there was a historic and positive change in cross-strait relations. At the same time, Taiwan was affected by the international financial crisis and its economy was facing a grim situation.In the face of internal and external pressure, the Taiwan authorities put forward the policy of opening mainland capital to the island to boost Taiwan's economy.This paper attempts to use Putnam's two-level game theory to analyze and interpret the Taiwan authorities' policy of open land capital entry from two aspects: inside and outside the island.After introducing the theory of double-level game, the paper firstly combs the origin, process and achievement of land capital entering the island.On this basis, according to the analysis frame of the two-layer game theory, the paper analyzes the factors inside and outside the island which play a role of promoting and restricting the land capital entering the island, and finally predicts the future development prospect of the land capital entering the island according to the theoretical analysis.From the perspective of two-level game, the Taiwan authorities open the first level of land capital entry to the island, that is, the key push of the offshore level, and the restricting factors are the mainland and the United States.The second level of the main opponents of the game is the Democratic Progressive Party and Green Camp supporters.This article holds that, against the background of the international financial crisis, the United States, the mainland, and Taiwan have common interests in the stability of the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and the three sides are willing to strengthen cooperation between the two sides through consultation and dialogue.In particular, by raising the level of economic cooperation to consolidate the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.As far as the island is concerned, although the policy of opening up land capital to the island proposed by Ma Yingjiu authorities has been obstructed to a certain extent by the Democratic Progressive Party, it has not affected the decision-making of the Ma Yingjiu administration. The biggest reason is that in the face of the severe economic situation,Strengthening economic cooperation with the mainland has become a consensus on the island, but the DPP has failed to play a decisive role in opposing it.It is in this kind of island, outside the island favorable decision-making background, open land capital into the island can be natural and natural.However, due to the unique political ecology of the island and the reality of cross-strait relations, in order to prevent the entry of land capital into the island against the impact on Taiwan's related industries, the Taiwan authorities have been very careful in the policy design and planning for the entry of mainland capital into the island.Concrete measures are even more fortification everywhere.Under the influence of the international financial crisis, Ma Yingjiu's successful reelection and the initial positive effect of the land capital entry, the policy of the Taiwan authorities will be more open in the future.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海國際問題研究院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：D618

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