本文選題：對外貿(mào)易　切入點：空間格局　出處：《遼寧師范大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自上世紀90年代以來，全球貿(mào)易飛速發(fā)展，貿(mào)易空間格局也發(fā)生了巨大變化。在此過程中，中國大陸的對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展神速，進出口總額突飛猛進，占世界貿(mào)易額的比重不斷上升，現(xiàn)已成功躍居為世界第二大貿(mào)易國，世界第一大出口國；對外貿(mào)易商品結(jié)構(gòu)不斷優(yōu)化升級，工業(yè)制成品在我國出口商品中占據(jù)絕對主導地位，步入21世紀，在工業(yè)制成品出口中，資本技術(shù)密集型產(chǎn)品取代勞動密集型產(chǎn)品成為我國出口主導產(chǎn)品。 為了更進一步參與國際分工，掌握國際貿(mào)易動態(tài)趨勢，實現(xiàn)自身經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級，從貿(mào)易大國轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橘Q(mào)易強國，就需要深刻認識與我國緊密聯(lián)系的世界各地區(qū)貿(mào)易空間格局變化，并對未來世界貿(mào)易大環(huán)境的發(fā)展趨勢進行預測判斷。 本文以有關(guān)對外貿(mào)易理論為基礎(chǔ)，運用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型，兼顧傳統(tǒng)多要素關(guān)聯(lián)分析、時間序列分析，同時考慮結(jié)構(gòu)（空間結(jié)構(gòu)）特征和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟“增長慣性”等因素，發(fā)揮面板數(shù)據(jù)特點，建立綜合性的解釋及預測模型，重點研究了中國對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展與世界各國經(jīng)濟增長之間的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián)性。 論文以我國政府對外公布的對外貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)以及世界各國經(jīng)濟增長數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，以典型的世界貿(mào)易額列前20位的國家和世界經(jīng)濟地理板塊為基本空間分辨率，收集整理1990年～2010年間各時段對外貿(mào)易和各國經(jīng)濟增長的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，借助商品貿(mào)易額和商品結(jié)構(gòu)要素變化特點，從進口、出口和進出口三方面分析中國與全球其他基本地理單元之間的貿(mào)易增長特征、增長的關(guān)聯(lián)因素，，研究世界貿(mào)易格局變化特點，采用定量分析和定性分析相結(jié)合的方式，運用地理信息系統(tǒng)技術(shù)（GIS）實現(xiàn)貿(mào)易發(fā)展的空間表達，基于建立的“fixed-cof”面板數(shù)據(jù)（panel data）模型，對中國大陸與全球其他地區(qū)的貿(mào)易增長進行了預測，進一步展望中國大陸對外貿(mào)易格局的變化趨勢。據(jù)此，提出改善中國大陸對外貿(mào)易環(huán)境、促進對外貿(mào)易的可持續(xù)增長的一般對策。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990 s, global trade has developed rapidly, and the spatial pattern of trade has changed greatly.In this process, China's foreign trade has developed rapidly, the total import and export volume has increased by leaps and bounds, the proportion of the world trade volume has been rising, and it has successfully become the second largest trading country in the world and the first largest exporter in the world.The structure of foreign trade commodities is continuously optimized and upgraded, and manufactured goods occupy an absolute dominant position in China's export commodities. In the 21st century, industrial manufactured goods are exported in China.Capital-technology-intensive products replace labor-intensive products as the leading export products in China.In order to further participate in the international division of labor, grasp the dynamic trend of international trade, realize the sustainable development of their own economy and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, and transform from a trading power to a powerful trading country,It is necessary to have a deep understanding of the changes of trade spatial pattern in various regions of the world which are closely linked with China, and to predict the development trend of the world trade environment in the future.Based on the theory of foreign trade, using panel data model, this paper takes into account the traditional multi-factor correlation analysis, time series analysis, structural (spatial structure) characteristics and "growth inertia" of regional economy, and so on.This paper gives full play to the characteristics of panel data, establishes a comprehensive interpretation and prediction model, and focuses on the internal relationship between the development of China's foreign trade and the economic growth of various countries in the world.Based on the foreign trade data published by our government and the economic growth data of various countries in the world, the paper takes the typical top 20 countries in the world trade volume and the world economic geographical plate as the basic spatial resolution.To collect and collate the time series data of foreign trade and economic growth of various countries during 1990 and 2010, with the help of the changing characteristics of commodity trade volume and commodity structure elements, import from China.This paper analyzes the characteristics of trade growth between China and other basic geographical units of the world, the related factors of growth, studies the changing characteristics of world trade pattern, and adopts the combination of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis.The spatial expression of trade development is realized by using GIS technology. Based on the "fixed-cof" panel data panel data model, the trade growth between mainland China and the rest of the world is forecasted.Further look forward to the changing trend of mainland China's foreign trade pattern.Based on this, the general countermeasures to improve the foreign trade environment and promote the sustainable growth of foreign trade in mainland China are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752;F224;F129.9

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