本文選題：能源消費　切入點：技術(shù)進(jìn)步　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：：2013年初,國務(wù)院正式出臺《能源發(fā)展“十二五”規(guī)劃》,該規(guī)劃綜合考慮資源、技術(shù)、環(huán)境、經(jīng)濟(jì)等因素,提出我國2015年能源發(fā)展的目標(biāo)。目前我國處于經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型時期,在技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平難有大的改進(jìn)前提下,單靠生產(chǎn)要素量的增加對經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的邊際報酬是遞減的。因此要保證經(jīng)濟(jì)健康平穩(wěn)發(fā)展,就應(yīng)當(dāng)在依靠技術(shù)進(jìn)步提高生產(chǎn)率的同時,促進(jìn)能源、資本、勞動等生產(chǎn)要素與經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。 本文從能源消費和技術(shù)進(jìn)步兩個視角出發(fā),研究其對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,并針對我國目前在能源消費和技術(shù)進(jìn)步方面存在的問題提出政策性建議。 首先,從全國層面分析和研究了我國能源消費、技術(shù)進(jìn)步與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系。我國目前的能源消費狀況還處在倒“U”形能源庫茲涅茨曲線的左側(cè)；我國的技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平與發(fā)達(dá)國家相比尚有差距。基于協(xié)整理論和向量自回歸模型進(jìn)行了實證研究結(jié)果表明,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長同能源消費、技術(shù)進(jìn)步之間存在協(xié)整關(guān)系。Granger因果檢驗表明,存在由能源消費、技術(shù)進(jìn)步到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的因果關(guān)系,而能源消費與技術(shù)進(jìn)步之間的因果關(guān)系不太明確。脈沖響應(yīng)分析和方差分解分析表明,能源消費對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的沖擊并非是持久的,依靠能源消費拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長不具有可持續(xù)性；而技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響是持久的。 其次,基于省級面板數(shù)據(jù)分析了我國目前能源消費和技術(shù)進(jìn)步水平的地區(qū)性差異。將能源視作與資本、勞動等類似的生產(chǎn)要素,構(gòu)建擴展的Cobb-Douglas生產(chǎn)函數(shù),研究了資本、勞動、能源和全要素生產(chǎn)率(即廣義的技術(shù)進(jìn)步)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響。結(jié)果表明資本和勞動依然是重要的生產(chǎn)函數(shù),而能源的產(chǎn)出彈性和貢獻(xiàn)率則較小,并且存在地區(qū)間差異。技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)較大,僅次于資本,并且技術(shù)進(jìn)步對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率在中部地區(qū)達(dá)到最大,這可能是由于存在東部地區(qū)對中西部地區(qū)的“溢出效應(yīng)”。此外,測算得到的全要素生產(chǎn)率在三大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)域都出現(xiàn)下降趨勢,這一方面是由于資本的貢獻(xiàn)率一直呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢,而勞動和能源的貢獻(xiàn)率相對穩(wěn)定；另一方面可能是由于總產(chǎn)出曲線是一條向上傾斜的S形曲線,在生產(chǎn)率提高緩慢時,隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的不斷增加,各生產(chǎn)要素的邊際產(chǎn)量是遞減的,再加上2008年金融危機以來,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況處于結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和轉(zhuǎn)型之中,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的速度有所放緩,因此經(jīng)濟(jì)增長中能被“索洛殘差”所解釋的全要素生產(chǎn)率也有所降低。 最后,在前幾章研究的基礎(chǔ)上,針對我國目前在能源消費和技術(shù)進(jìn)步方面存在的問題提出了政策性建議。
[Abstract]:At the beginning of 2013, the State Council formally issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development, which comprehensively considers the factors of resources, technology, environment and economy, and puts forward the target of energy development in China in 2015. At present, our country is in the period of economic transformation. On the premise that it is difficult to improve the level of technological progress, the marginal return of economic aggregate is reduced by increasing the quantity of factors of production alone. Therefore, in order to ensure the healthy and stable development of the economy, we should rely on technological progress to increase productivity at the same time. To promote the coordinated development of energy, capital, labor and other factors of production and the economy. This paper studies the impact of energy consumption and technological progress on economic growth, and puts forward some policy suggestions on the problems existing in energy consumption and technological progress in China. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption, technological progress and economic growth in China is analyzed and studied at the national level. The current situation of energy consumption in China is still on the left side of the inverted "U" shape energy Kuznets curve. Based on the cointegration theory and the vector autoregressive model, the empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and the Granger causality test shows that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. There is a causal relationship between energy consumption, technological progress and economic growth, but the causal relationship between energy consumption and technological progress is not clear. The impact of energy consumption on economic growth is not sustainable, and the impact of technological progress on economic growth is not sustainable. Secondly, based on the provincial panel data, this paper analyzes the regional differences in the current energy consumption and technological progress in China. Taking energy as a factor of production similar to capital and labor, this paper constructs an expanded Cobb-Douglas production function and studies capital and labor. The impact of energy and total factor productivity (that is, technological progress in a broad sense) on economic growth. The results show that capital and labour continue to be important production functions, while energy is less resilient and contributing to output. The contribution of technological progress to economic growth is greater than that of capital, and the contribution rate of technological progress to economic growth is the largest in the central region. This may be due to the existence of the "spillover effect" of the eastern region on the central and western regions. In addition, the calculated total factor productivity has shown a downward trend in all three major economic regions, partly because the contribution rate of capital has been on the rise. The contribution of labor and energy is relatively stable; on the other hand, it may be that the total output curve is an upward S-shaped curve, and that when productivity increases slowly, as the total economic volume increases, Since the financial crisis of 2008, the economic situation in our country has been in the process of structural adjustment and transformation, and the rate of economic growth has slowed down. As a result, total factor productivity, which can be explained by Solow's residuals in economic growth, has also fallen. Finally, on the basis of the previous chapters, some policy suggestions are put forward in view of the problems existing in energy consumption and technological progress in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F224;F124;F426.2

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前8條

1 李長風(fēng);中性技術(shù)進(jìn)步與技術(shù)進(jìn)步類型研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;1996年04期

2 陳安平;;中國地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長溢出效應(yīng)傳輸渠道研究[J];財經(jīng)研究;2005年12期

3 張志勇;王麗瑜;;西方現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論及其新發(fā)展[J];東岳論叢;2009年10期

4 韓智勇,魏一鳴,焦建玲,范英,張九天;中國能源消費與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的協(xié)整性與因果關(guān)系分析[J];系統(tǒng)工程;2004年12期

5 王守春;董秀成;;中國能源消費與GDP因果關(guān)系的實證研究——基于結(jié)構(gòu)變化、技術(shù)進(jìn)步視角[J];改革與戰(zhàn)略;2009年01期

6 高新才;白麗飛;;區(qū)域整合視角下中國省際經(jīng)濟(jì)增長溢出效應(yīng)研究[J];地域研究與開發(fā);2013年03期

7 李平;;國際技術(shù)擴散的路徑和方式[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年09期

8 劉劍鋒;湯曉蔚;;能源消費與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長再探討——基于最大熵自助法的研究[J];統(tǒng)計與信息論壇;2012年09期

，

本文編號：1660940