本文選題：外匯占款　切入點(diǎn)：消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平　出處：《蘭州大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近些年來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)常賬戶(hù)和資本金融賬戶(hù)積累了巨額的順差,在當(dāng)前的外匯制度下巨額的順差催生了高額的外匯占款。我國(guó)外匯占款額從1994年的4481.8億人民幣增長(zhǎng)到2010年的22萬(wàn)億人民幣,平均每年增長(zhǎng)25.74%。由于央行的沖銷(xiāo)操作具有不可持續(xù)性,外匯占款的逐年增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)流動(dòng)性過(guò)剩,居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平出現(xiàn)持續(xù)膨脹的趨勢(shì)。隨著外匯占款額的增加,從2000年到2010年間發(fā)生了3輪持續(xù)期較長(zhǎng)的價(jià)格通脹,尤其是2008年的消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平增長(zhǎng)率有數(shù)月都在8%以上,且2010年第二季度發(fā)生的價(jià)格通脹至今仍沒(méi)有明顯的改觀。 本文參考了大量文獻(xiàn)和前人研究成果,發(fā)現(xiàn)大量的研究工作是從貨幣數(shù)量的角度來(lái)分析外匯占款對(duì)消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平的影響。根據(jù)當(dāng)前我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的實(shí)際情況,本文增加了信貸渠道作為考察對(duì)象,分別從信貸規(guī)模角度和貨幣數(shù)量角度來(lái)分析該問(wèn)題。本文選取1991年至2011年的相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),使用eviews軟件采用實(shí)證分析的方法來(lái)論證了外匯占款通過(guò)貨幣數(shù)量傳導(dǎo)渠道和信貸傳導(dǎo)渠道對(duì)消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平的影響狀況。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)外匯占款對(duì)消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平的膨脹作用顯著,通過(guò)貨幣數(shù)量渠道和信貸渠道都能引起消費(fèi)價(jià)格水平的膨脹。其中貨幣數(shù)量傳導(dǎo)渠道作用顯著,外匯占款通過(guò)擴(kuò)張貨幣供應(yīng)量能夠明顯的提高價(jià)格水平,貨幣的過(guò)量發(fā)行導(dǎo)致了近幾年的價(jià)格水平的膨脹；而信貸渠道處于半有效的狀態(tài),外匯占款對(duì)信貸規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張作用不明顯,國(guó)家逆經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的信貸控制措施阻礙了外匯占款對(duì)信貸規(guī)模的擴(kuò)張作用,信貸控制措施抑制了投資和消費(fèi)的高漲從而抑制了價(jià)格水平上漲的趨勢(shì)。針對(duì)上述發(fā)現(xiàn),本文提出了緩解外匯占款的增加所導(dǎo)致的價(jià)格水平的膨脹的措施：推進(jìn)我國(guó)外匯管理體制的市場(chǎng)化改革、實(shí)現(xiàn)進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易自由化和優(yōu)化外商投資結(jié)構(gòu)、完善央行外匯占款沖銷(xiāo)機(jī)制,合理調(diào)控貨幣供應(yīng)量。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has accumulated a huge surplus in its current account and capital financial account. The huge surplus under the current foreign exchange system has given rise to high foreign exchange holdings. The amount of foreign exchange in China has increased from 448.18 billion yuan in 1994 to 22 trillion yuan in 2010. The average annual growth rate is 25.740.Because the central bank's sterilisation operation is unsustainable, the annual increase in foreign exchange holdings will lead to excess liquidity in the national economy, and the consumer price level of residents will continue to expand. With the increase in the amount of foreign exchange funds, From 2000 to 2010, there were three rounds of long-running price inflation, especially in 2008, where consumer price levels grew at more than 8 percent for months, and price inflation in the second quarter of 2010 has not improved significantly. Referring to a large number of literatures and previous research results, this paper finds that a great deal of research work is to analyze the influence of foreign exchange on consumer price level from the point of view of monetary quantity. In this paper, credit channels are added to analyze the problem from the perspective of credit scale and monetary quantity. This paper selects the relevant economic data from 1991 to 2011. In this paper, we use the eviews software to demonstrate the influence of foreign exchange on the consumer price level through the monetary quantity transmission channel and credit transmission channel, and find that the foreign exchange occupying fund has a significant effect on the inflation of consumer price level. Both the monetary quantity channel and the credit channel can cause the inflation of the consumer price level. Among them, the monetary quantity transmission channel plays a significant role, and the foreign exchange occupying fund can obviously increase the price level by expanding the money supply. The excessive issuance of money has led to the inflation of price levels in recent years, while the credit channels are in a semi-effective state, and the expansion of foreign exchange holdings on the scale of credit is not obvious. In response to the findings, the country's countercyclical credit controls have hindered the expansion of foreign exchange holdings on the scale of credit, which has restrained the upsurge in investment and consumption and thus the rise in price levels. This paper puts forward some measures to alleviate the inflation of the price level caused by the increase of foreign exchange funds: to promote the market-oriented reform of China's foreign exchange management system, to realize the liberalization of import and export trade and to optimize the structure of foreign investment. We will improve the central bank's mechanism for sterilizing foreign exchange holdings and rationally control the money supply.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F126.1;F832.6

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