本文選題：外商直接投資　切入點：出口貿(mào)易　出處：《遼寧大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：冠有“中國第三大城市”之稱的天津，位于環(huán)渤海經(jīng)濟圈內，是僅次于北京的北方第二大經(jīng)濟政治中心。自改革開放以來，天津市穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展一直保持在國內領先水平，并憑借其港口城市的便利立體交通運輸體系，大力倡導“西進東出”、“出口導向”的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，不斷發(fā)展自己的出口貿(mào)易產(chǎn)業(yè)。中國加入世貿(mào)組織以后，天津更是充分利用其綜合功能優(yōu)勢積極尋求國際貿(mào)易伙伴，應對國際金融危機的同時努力發(fā)展出口貿(mào)易以帶動經(jīng)濟增長�？梢哉f，作為拉動國民經(jīng)濟增長三駕馬車之一的“出口貿(mào)易”是促進天津經(jīng)濟增長強有力的催化劑。近年來，隨著作為天津觸角和龍頭的天津濱海新區(qū)被納入“十一五”、“十二五”等國家總體發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略后，濱海新區(qū)優(yōu)惠的政策制度、良好的投資環(huán)境吸引跨國公司紛紛涌入，使得外商直接投資（簡稱FDI）總量急劇擴大，逐漸成為拉動全市經(jīng)濟增長的重要力量。 面對天津外商直接投資、出口貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟都保持較快增長這一情況，會引發(fā)這樣一種思考：外商直接投資和出口貿(mào)易這二者究竟哪一個對天津經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度更大；今后天津經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略應該更偏重于實施“出口導向”政策，還是利用濱海新區(qū)高速發(fā)展這一契機加快引入外商直接投資？為了解決這些問題，有必要對天津外商直接投資和出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀和特點及其對經(jīng)濟的拉動效果進行全面系統(tǒng)的比較分析。這也為天津今后更好地制定經(jīng)濟政策、實現(xiàn)技術進步、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)結構等提供了有力的實證支持和幫助。 該論文在回顧前人相關文獻的基礎上，首先介紹了FDI與出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長貢獻作用的相關理論，并總結了二者促進經(jīng)濟增長的理論機制，為后面的實證分析提供有力的理論基礎。其次，搜集天津市1990以來相關統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，分別剖析了天津經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、引進FDI以及出口貿(mào)易的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和特點，并從總量、貢獻度和拉動度三個角度比較了FDI與出口貿(mào)易對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻作用。再次，利用1990—2010年間的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)，在理論機制分析的指導下，構建適當?shù)慕?jīng)濟模型，實證分析了外商直接投資與出口貿(mào)易對天津經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻度大小。實證部分通過協(xié)整檢驗得出，，F(xiàn)DI和出口貿(mào)易與天津市生產(chǎn)總值、資本存量的增加、就業(yè)人數(shù)的上漲和技術水平的提高有著長期穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關系。通過回歸分析得出，出口貿(mào)易比FDI對天津經(jīng)濟增長起到更大的貢獻作用，但二者貢獻水平的差距不大。而格蘭杰因果檢驗表明，經(jīng)濟的高速增長會使得外商直接投資的流入加快，而且FDI反過來又會進一步推動經(jīng)濟增長，二者之間形成良性循環(huán)；出口貿(mào)易的增加是經(jīng)濟增長的原因但反之不成立，說明出口貿(mào)易的增長更容易受國內外政治經(jīng)濟形勢變化的影響。一旦國際經(jīng)濟不穩(wěn)定，出口貿(mào)易會受到較大沖擊，無法起到快速帶動經(jīng)濟增長的作用。所以想要保持天津經(jīng)濟的長期穩(wěn)定增長還應該繼續(xù)加大引進外商直接投資的力度。最后，針對天津市經(jīng)濟增長、FDI與出口貿(mào)易的現(xiàn)狀和特點，結合實證分析的相關結論，對天津未來經(jīng)濟更好更快的發(fā)展提出了相關政策建議。
[Abstract]:The crown of "third city" Chinese called Tianjin, located in the Bohai economic circle, Beijing is second only to the second big northern economic and political center. Since the reform and opening up, Tianjin city has maintained a stable economic development in the domestic leading level, and with convenient traffic and transportation system, the port city, advocate "from east to west", "export oriented" economic development strategy, continue to develop their own export industry. After China joined WTO, Tianjin is to make full use of the advantages of comprehensive functions of actively seeking international trade partners, in response to the international financial crisis and try to develop the export trade to promote economic growth. It can be said, as the national economic growth is one of the three carriages of the "export trade" is a powerful catalyst to promote economic growth in Tianjin. In recent years, with Tianjin as the leading angle and Tianjin Binhai New Area has been incorporated into the "11th Five-Year", "12th Five-Year national overall development strategy", the Binhai New Area of preferential policies, good investment environment to attract multinational companies have entered the foreign direct investment (FDI) total is expanding rapidly, has gradually become an important force driving the economic growth.
In the face of foreign direct investment in Tianjin, export trade and economy to maintain a rapid growth in this situation will lead to such a kind of thinking: foreign direct investment and export trade of the two which is a contribution to Tianjin's economic growth to a greater degree; in the future development of Tianjin's economy should be more emphasis on the implementation of the "export oriented" the policy, or make use of the opportunity of rapid development of Binhai New Area to accelerate the introduction of foreign direct investment? In order to solve these problems, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive system of comparative analysis on the current situation and characteristics of Tianjin foreign direct investment and export trade and its stimulating effect on the economy. This is Tianjin in the future the formulation of economic policy, to achieve technological progress provide empirical support and help to effectively optimize the industrial structure.
This paper based on the review of previous literature, first introduced the related theory of FDI and export trade's contribution to economic growth, the theory of mechanism and summarizes the two to promote economic growth, provides a strong theoretical basis for the later empirical analysis. Secondly, from the city of Tianjin since 1990 the relevant statistical data, analyzes the Tianjin economic development, development status and characteristics of the introduction of FDI and export trade, and from the total amount, pulling rate and contribution rate of three compared with FDI and export trade's contribution to economic growth. Thirdly, using time series data from 1990 to 2010 years, the theory of mechanism analysis under the guidance of constructing a suitable economic model the empirical analysis of foreign direct investment and export trade on economic growth in Tianjin. The contribution of the empirical part obtained through cointegration test, FDI and export trade and total production in Tianjin City Value, the increase of capital stock, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between employment rose and technological level. Through regression analysis, the contribution of the export trade of more than FDI to the economic growth in Tianjin to play, but the contribution of the two level of the gap is small. And Grainger causality test shows that the rapid economic growth the causes of FDI to accelerate, and FDI in turn will further promote economic growth, form a virtuous cycle between the two; the increase of export trade is the cause of economic growth but not vice versa, illustrate the impact of the export trade growth are more vulnerable to changes in the domestic and international political and economic situation. Once the international economic instability, exports will be hit, can not play the role of promoting economic growth rapidly. So I want to maintain long-term and stable economic growth in Tianjin should continue to increase the introduction of foreign The intensity of business direct investment. Finally, according to the current situation and characteristics of Tianjin's economic growth, FDI and export trade, combined with the relevant conclusions of empirical analysis, we put forward relevant policy recommendations for the future and better and faster development of Tianjin's economy.

【學位授予單位】：遼寧大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.8;F127

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