本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng) 層次分析法 耦合協(xié)調(diào)度 計(jì)量分析　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展，人類對(duì)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)的認(rèn)識(shí)逐漸加深，研究三者之間的綜合平衡發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為全球話題。如何實(shí)現(xiàn)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展，既能夠保持經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)，又能夠高效運(yùn)用資源，同時(shí)對(duì)環(huán)境影響程度最小，是目前急需解決的問(wèn)題。湖南省屬于典型的能源輸入型省份，能源短缺已成為制約省內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要因素。能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境之間的矛盾變得日益突出，，了解三者目前的現(xiàn)狀，分析三者之間的協(xié)調(diào)關(guān)系以及相互影響程度，是解決矛盾的前提。 首先，對(duì)能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行理論分析。主要是從能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系、能源消費(fèi)與環(huán)境污染的關(guān)系、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境污染的關(guān)系、能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展這四個(gè)方面來(lái)研究。 其次，對(duì)湖南省能源-經(jīng)濟(jì)-環(huán)境(3E)系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。先分析湖南省能源生產(chǎn)與消費(fèi)、環(huán)境發(fā)展、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，湖南省目前經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展迅速，能源消費(fèi)需求巨大，能源資源相對(duì)不足。環(huán)境狀況不容樂(lè)觀，廢氣、廢水、廢渣對(duì)環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重。然后建立3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，利用耦合協(xié)調(diào)度模型測(cè)度湖南省2002-2011年的3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度。結(jié)果表明，2002年湖南省3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度屬于輕度失調(diào)狀態(tài)，2003-2011年3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)度屬于瀕臨失調(diào)狀態(tài)。 再次，對(duì)湖南省產(chǎn)業(yè)能源消費(fèi)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析。從產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)角度分析三次產(chǎn)業(yè)能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的關(guān)系，并建立對(duì)應(yīng)的誤差修正模型。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，湖南省三次產(chǎn)業(yè)能源消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都存在顯著的協(xié)整關(guān)系，可以分別建立誤差修正模型。第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)都存在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源消費(fèi)方向的單向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系，第三產(chǎn)業(yè)存在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)對(duì)能源消費(fèi)的雙向格蘭杰因果關(guān)系。 最后，針對(duì)實(shí)證結(jié)果為湖南省3E系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the development of society and economy, the understanding of energy economy environment 3E) system is getting deeper and deeper. It has become a global topic to study the comprehensive balance development among the three systems. How to realize the coordinated development of energy economy environment system, It is a problem that needs to be solved urgently in Hunan Province, which can not only maintain rapid economic growth, but also make efficient use of resources, and at the same time have the least impact on the environment. Hunan Province is a typical energy-importing province. Energy shortage has become an important factor restricting the economic development of the province. The contradiction between energy, economy and environment has become increasingly prominent. It is a prerequisite for resolving contradictions. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution, the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution, and the relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution are analyzed theoretically. The coordinated development of energy-economy-environment 3 E) system is studied in four aspects. Secondly, the coordination degree of energy, economy and environment in Hunan Province is evaluated. Firstly, the energy production and consumption, the development of environment and the present situation of economic development in Hunan Province are analyzed. At present, the economy of Hunan Province is developing rapidly, and the demand for energy consumption is huge. The energy resources are relatively insufficient. The environmental condition is not optimistic. The waste gas, waste water and waste residue pollute the environment seriously. Then the evaluation index system of 3e system coordination degree is established. The coordination degree of 3e system in Hunan Province from 2002 to 2011 is measured by using the coupling coordination degree model. The results show that in 2002 the coordination degree of 3e system in Hunan Province belongs to the state of slight maladjustment. From 2003 to 2011 the degree of coordination of 3e system in Hunan Province is on the verge of maladjustment. Thirdly, the econometric analysis of industrial energy consumption and economic growth in Hunan Province is carried out. From the angle of industrial structure, the relationship between energy consumption and economic development is analyzed, and the corresponding error correction model is established. There is a significant cointegration relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in three industries in Hunan Province, and error correction models can be established separately. Both primary and secondary industries have one-way Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption. The third industry has a two-way Granger causality between economic growth and energy consumption. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the coordinated development of Hunan 3e system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F205;F127;F224

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