本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化 協(xié)調(diào)度模型 預(yù)測(cè)模型 新疆生產(chǎn)建設(shè)兵團(tuán)　出處：《石河子大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化是一個(gè)社會(huì)必經(jīng)的發(fā)展過(guò)程，兩者共同構(gòu)成經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的主旋律，分別反映了產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和空間結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，存在著交互作用的互動(dòng)發(fā)展關(guān)系，兩者的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然要求，是全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的重要任務(wù)，同時(shí)也是深入貫徹科學(xué)發(fā)展觀的重要內(nèi)容。新疆正處于跨越式大發(fā)展階段，而兵團(tuán)作為新疆自治區(qū)的重要組成部分，是黨政軍企合一的特殊組織，擔(dān)負(fù)著國(guó)家賦予的屯墾戍邊的光榮任務(wù)，著力推進(jìn)兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展是提高兵團(tuán)綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力的重要內(nèi)容，是解決兵團(tuán)工業(yè)發(fā)展乏力、結(jié)構(gòu)不合理、城鎮(zhèn)布局分散、城鎮(zhèn)化動(dòng)力不足等一系列問(wèn)題的重要途徑，更是推動(dòng)兵團(tuán)乃至整個(gè)新疆社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平的進(jìn)一步提高的重要?jiǎng)恿�，同時(shí)對(duì)于維護(hù)邊疆社會(huì)穩(wěn)定也有著重要意義。 本研究在對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化的內(nèi)涵和特征進(jìn)行了較為全面概括的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了兩者之間的互動(dòng)關(guān)系作用機(jī)理，回顧了兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的進(jìn)程和發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，合理選取出反映兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的具體評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)，并借助城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)及預(yù)測(cè)函數(shù)模型，，分析了2005-2010年兵團(tuán)整體城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及2010年兵團(tuán)各師城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，在此基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)“十二五”期間城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展程度進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)。進(jìn)而結(jié)合兵團(tuán)自身特點(diǎn)對(duì)影響兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的各種因素進(jìn)行了分析，并提出了一系列合理改進(jìn)兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化和工業(yè)化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展關(guān)系的對(duì)策建議。 本文的主要結(jié)論為：第一，2005-2010年兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化整體協(xié)同發(fā)展水平及協(xié)調(diào)度均呈現(xiàn)上升的趨勢(shì)，但依舊處于較低的層次和協(xié)調(diào)等級(jí)；初始階段，城鎮(zhèn)化滯后于工業(yè)化，隨后城鄉(xiāng)社會(huì)形態(tài)發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變，大量農(nóng)村人口向城鎮(zhèn)轉(zhuǎn)移，城鎮(zhèn)化快速發(fā)展，協(xié)調(diào)類型由城鎮(zhèn)化滯后型轉(zhuǎn)化為工業(yè)化滯后型。第二，就兵團(tuán)各師來(lái)看：2010年第八師的城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展程度相對(duì)較高，處于較協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)，第三師、第五師、第九師、第十四師的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展程度最低，處于不協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)，其余九個(gè)師均處于弱協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)。第三，依據(jù)測(cè)算出的兵團(tuán)2005-2010年的城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化發(fā)展協(xié)調(diào)度動(dòng)態(tài)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果，對(duì)“十二五”期間兵團(tuán)城鎮(zhèn)化與工業(yè)化的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)，結(jié)果表明兩系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)程度在逐漸改善，但改善速度相對(duì)較緩，到“十二五”末兩系統(tǒng)僅能達(dá)到較協(xié)調(diào)的等級(jí)狀態(tài)。
[Abstract]:Industrialization and urbanization are the necessary development process of a society. Together, they constitute the main melody of economic and social development, which reflect the changes of industrial structure and spatial structure respectively, and have interactive and interactive development relations. The coordinated development of the two is the inevitable requirement of the social and economic development, the important task of building a well-off society in an all-round way, and the important content of carrying out the scientific concept of development in depth. As an important part of the Xinjiang Autonomous region, the Corps is a special organization for the integration of the party, government, and military enterprises, and shoulders the glorious task entrusted by the state to open up land and defend the border. To promote the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization of the Corps is an important part of improving the comprehensive economic strength of the Corps. It is also a solution to the lack of industrial development, unreasonable structure, and scattered urban distribution in the Corps. A series of important ways such as insufficient power of urbanization and so on are also the important driving forces to promote the further improvement of the level of social and economic development of the Corps and even the whole Xinjiang. At the same time it is also of great significance to maintain the social stability of the frontier areas. On the basis of a comprehensive summary of the connotation and characteristics of urbanization and industrialization, this study analyzes the mechanism of interaction between the two, and reviews the process and development status of urbanization and industrialization in Bingtuan. Reasonable selection of specific evaluation indicators reflecting the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization of the Corps, and with the aid of the evaluation and prediction function model of coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization, This paper analyzes the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in the whole of the Corps from 2005 to 2010 and the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in the divisions of the Corps in 2010. This paper forecasts the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, and then analyzes the factors that affect the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization in Bingtuan in light of its own characteristics. A series of countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the relationship between urbanization and industrialization. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, from 2005 to 2010, the overall coordinated development level and coordination degree of urbanization and industrialization of Bingtuan showed an upward trend, but it is still at a lower level and coordination level, while urbanization lags behind industrialization in the initial stage. Subsequently, major changes took place in the social formation of urban and rural areas, a large number of rural population moved to cities and towns, urbanization developed rapidly, and the coordinated type changed from the lagging type of urbanization to the lagging type of industrialization. Second, In 2010, the level of coordinated development between urbanization and industrialization of the 8th divisions was relatively high and in a more coordinated state. The third, 5th, 9th and 14th divisions had the lowest degree of coordinated development and were in an uncoordinated state. The other nine divisions are in a weak coordination state. Thirdly, based on the calculated dynamic evaluation results of the coordination degree of urbanization and industrialization development between 2005 and 2010, the coordinated development of urbanization and industrialization during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is forecasted. The results show that the degree of coordination between the two systems is improving gradually, but the speed of improvement is relatively slow. By the end of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the two systems can only reach a more coordinated level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F127

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