本文關(guān)鍵詞： 能源 經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng) 驅(qū)動關(guān)系 協(xié)調(diào)性　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：近年來，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了前所未有的持續(xù)、高速增長，經(jīng)濟(jì)實力和綜合國力不斷提升。然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長的同時，能源消耗也大幅度攀升，伴隨著高能源消耗和高速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的是一系列環(huán)境問題。在能源消費、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境保護(hù)之間的矛盾變得日趨突出的今天，全面分析三者之間的關(guān)系和相互影響程度，了解能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境間的相互作用關(guān)系，是解決矛盾的必要前提。 能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)間的關(guān)系是一個復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)關(guān)系。利用相互作用模型和壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)模型對能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)的驅(qū)動機(jī)制和協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究，，發(fā)現(xiàn)其兩者之間同時存在起促進(jìn)作用的正驅(qū)動作用和起阻礙作用的負(fù)驅(qū)動作用，而且一個系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展變化不僅受到與其聯(lián)系的另一單一系統(tǒng)發(fā)展變化的影響，還受到另外兩個系統(tǒng)之間驅(qū)動作用的影響。 將能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境兩兩之間的相互作用關(guān)系及規(guī)律定義為局部驅(qū)動機(jī)制，將能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境三者之間的相互作用關(guān)系及規(guī)律定義為整體驅(qū)動機(jī)制。從局部和整體的角度對中國能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)的驅(qū)動關(guān)系進(jìn)行計量檢驗。利用面板單位根、協(xié)整和因果檢驗方法進(jìn)行局部驅(qū)動關(guān)系檢驗，結(jié)果表明：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與能源消費不管在長期還是短期內(nèi)都互為因果關(guān)系；環(huán)境污染與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長只在長期內(nèi)互為因果關(guān)系；環(huán)境污染與能源消費在長期內(nèi)互為因果關(guān)系，短期內(nèi)存在工業(yè)廢氣排放量、工業(yè)固體廢棄物產(chǎn)生量與能源消費的雙向因果關(guān)系以及能源消費到工業(yè)廢水排放量的單向因果關(guān)系。利用VAR模型、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解方法進(jìn)行整體驅(qū)動關(guān)系檢驗，結(jié)果表明：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、能源消費與環(huán)境污染之間存在長期的均衡關(guān)系，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長對能源消費和環(huán)境污染的影響呈現(xiàn)遞增的趨勢；能源消費對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和環(huán)境污染的影響短期內(nèi)逐漸遞增，長期內(nèi)趨于穩(wěn)定；環(huán)境污染對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和能源消耗的影響逐漸遞減，由開始的正效應(yīng)慢慢變成負(fù)效應(yīng)。 壓力-狀態(tài)-響應(yīng)（P-S-R）模型能較好地反映能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境之間的相互作用關(guān)系，可以用來描述3E各子系統(tǒng)發(fā)展的動態(tài)均衡過程。利用該模型構(gòu)建我國能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境協(xié)調(diào)評價指標(biāo)體系，并利用熵權(quán)TOPSIS法對我國1995-2011年3E系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)性進(jìn)行綜合評價。評價結(jié)果顯示：我國能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境（3E）系統(tǒng)的協(xié)調(diào)性大致呈現(xiàn)遞減的趨勢，2007年之前處于協(xié)調(diào)狀態(tài)，而2007年及以后年份我國能源、經(jīng)濟(jì)與環(huán)境系統(tǒng)變得不再協(xié)調(diào)，而且這種不協(xié)調(diào)的程度隨著時間的推移逐漸加深。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's economy has experienced unprecedented sustained growth, rapid growth, economic strength and comprehensive national strength constantly improved. However, with the rapid economic growth, energy consumption has also increased significantly. With the high energy consumption and high economic growth is a series of environmental problems. In energy consumption, economic growth and environmental protection between the contradiction has become increasingly prominent today. It is necessary to analyze the relationship and the degree of interaction between them and to understand the interaction between energy, economy and environment. The relationship between energy, economic and environmental systems is a complex system relationship. The interaction model and the pressure-state-response model are used to deal with energy. The driving mechanism and coordination mechanism of the economic and environmental 3E) system are studied. It is found that there are both positive driving and negative driving which play a positive role and a negative driving effect in the two systems. Moreover, the development of one system is influenced not only by the development of the other single system, but also by the driving effect between the other two systems. The interaction between energy, economy and environment is defined as the local driving mechanism. The interaction between economy and environment is defined as the overall driving mechanism. The driving relation of economy and environment 3E) system is tested by econometrics, and the local driving relationship is tested by panel unit root, cointegration and causality test. The results show that economic growth and energy consumption are causally related to each other in the long run or in the short term. Environmental pollution and economic growth are causality only in the long run. Environmental pollution and energy consumption are causally related to each other in the long run, and industrial exhaust emissions exist in the short term. Two-way causality between industrial solid waste production and energy consumption and one-way causality between energy consumption and industrial wastewater discharge. VAR model is used. Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test the overall driving relationship. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and environmental pollution. The influence of economic growth on energy consumption and environmental pollution is increasing; The impact of energy consumption on economic growth and environmental pollution increases gradually in the short term and tends to be stable in the long run. The effect of environmental pollution on economic growth and energy consumption decreases gradually, and gradually changes from positive effect to negative effect. The pressure-state-response P-S-R model can better reflect the interaction among energy, economy and environment. It can be used to describe the dynamic equilibrium process of the development of 3e subsystems. The model is used to construct the evaluation index system of energy, economy and environment coordination in China. The coordination of 3e system in China from 1995 to 2011 is evaluated by entropy weight TOPSIS method. The evaluation results show that: energy in China. The coordination of economy and environment 3E) system is in the state of coordination before 2007, but in 2007 and later years, the economic and environmental system is no longer coordinated. And the extent of this disharmony gradually deepens over time.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F205;F206;F124;F224

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