本文關(guān)鍵詞： 第三產(chǎn)業(yè) 內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu) 時(shí)間序列分析 結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展水平是反映一個(gè)國(guó)家或地區(qū)生產(chǎn)力發(fā)展水平的重要標(biāo)志之一。發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè)可以有力地促進(jìn)物質(zhì)生產(chǎn)的發(fā)展;更好地滿足人民的生活需要；有利于城市多功能作用的充分發(fā)揮；有利于促進(jìn)就業(yè),緩解就業(yè)壓力。調(diào)整和優(yōu)化第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)可以有效地促進(jìn)我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。 本文主要借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論,立足于我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的歷史和現(xiàn)狀,運(yùn)用2003-2011年的數(shù)據(jù),重點(diǎn)從第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的產(chǎn)出結(jié)構(gòu)、就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、投資結(jié)構(gòu)和內(nèi)部效益結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的演變過(guò)程進(jìn)行分析；同時(shí),分析了世界典型的發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各行業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,將我國(guó)的相應(yīng)數(shù)據(jù)與其進(jìn)行對(duì)比,得出我國(guó)與幾個(gè)典型國(guó)家第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的不同和我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展過(guò)程中存在的問(wèn)題；此外,在分析2003-2011年我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)的基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用基于ARMA模型的時(shí)間序列分析法預(yù)測(cè)出第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部各行業(yè)的增加值,定量研究了我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)未來(lái)五年的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì)。本文針對(duì)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)演變存在的諸多問(wèn)題,提出了促進(jìn)我國(guó)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和優(yōu)化的政策建議,以期為我國(guó)未來(lái)采取有效措施調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)提供決策參考。首先,合理提升傳統(tǒng)服務(wù)業(yè)：加快發(fā)展現(xiàn)代交通運(yùn)輸業(yè),優(yōu)化批發(fā)和零售業(yè),發(fā)揮住宿餐飲業(yè)的基礎(chǔ)作用；其次,大力發(fā)展新興服務(wù)業(yè)：深化改革金融業(yè),促進(jìn)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展,大力拓展信息服務(wù)業(yè)；再次,優(yōu)化就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和投資結(jié)構(gòu)：促進(jìn)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化,合理引導(dǎo)投資流向；最后,提高非營(yíng)利性行業(yè)相對(duì)生產(chǎn)率：引入競(jìng)爭(zhēng)機(jī)制,提高勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率和資金生產(chǎn)率。
[Abstract]:The development level of the tertiary industry is one of the important symbols reflecting the development level of the productive forces of a country or region, and the development of the tertiary industry can promote the development of material production. To better meet the living needs of the people; It is propitious to give full play to the multifunctional function of the city; The adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry can effectively promote the growth of China's national economy. This article mainly draws lessons from the domestic and foreign tertiary industry economic theory, based on our country tertiary industry development history and the present situation, uses the data from 2003 to 2011, emphatically from the tertiary industry output structure. The structure of employment, the structure of investment and the structure of internal benefit are analyzed to analyze the evolution of the internal structure of tertiary industry in China. At the same time, the paper analyzes the development situation of the tertiary industry in the developed and developing countries, and compares the corresponding data of our country with it. The differences between China and some typical countries in the development of the tertiary industry and the problems in the development of the tertiary industry in China are obtained. In addition, based on the analysis of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in China from 2003 to 2011, the added value of each industry in the tertiary industry is predicted by using the time series analysis method based on the ARMA model. The change trend of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in the next five years is studied quantitatively. This paper aims at the problems existing in the evolution of the internal structure of the tertiary industry. This paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the adjustment and optimization of the internal structure of the tertiary industry in order to provide a decision reference for the effective measures to be taken to adjust the industrial structure in the future. Promote the traditional service industry rationally: speed up the development of modern transportation, optimize the wholesale and retail trade, give play to the basic role of the catering industry; Secondly, vigorously develop the emerging service industry: deepen the reform of the financial industry, promote the healthy development of the real estate industry, vigorously expand the information service industry; Thirdly, optimize the employment structure and investment structure: promote the optimization of the employment structure, guide the investment flow reasonably; Finally, improve the relative productivity of non-profit industry: introduce competition mechanism, improve labor productivity and capital productivity.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F121.3;F121.3;F224

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