本文關(guān)鍵詞：發(fā)展中大國城市化與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的實證分析　出處：《海南大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城市化 經(jīng)濟增長 發(fā)展中大國 面板數(shù)據(jù)模型 多層統(tǒng)計模型

【摘要】：城市化是經(jīng)濟增長過程中的一個必然產(chǎn)物,越來越多的經(jīng)濟學家意識到城市化與經(jīng)濟增長之間的聯(lián)系是密切且相互作用、相輔相成的,即經(jīng)濟增長過程中會伴隨著城市化水平的上升,城市化水平的上升反過來對經(jīng)濟增長起促進作用,而且,城市化還可以以人力資本、物質(zhì)資本、知識資本和經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)等因素作為介質(zhì),間接對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生影響。目前,發(fā)達國家已基本完成城市化的發(fā)展,而發(fā)展中國家特別是中國,正處于城市化加速發(fā)展階段,因此,本文通過實證分析,深入探討城市化與經(jīng)濟增長關(guān)系的相互作用機制,對于城市化水平的提高和經(jīng)濟增長的意義是十分重要的。 本文通過借鑒現(xiàn)有的理論和實證研究成果,利用實證分析法和規(guī)范分析法,較為系統(tǒng)、全面地分析了發(fā)展中大國城市化與經(jīng)濟增長之間的相互作用機制,重點研究了城市化對經(jīng)濟增長的影響機制,同時提出了在城市化加速發(fā)展階段,如何有效提高城市化水平的同時還能促進經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)增長。 本文的主要研究內(nèi)容有以下幾個方面： 第一,在已有的理論研究基礎之上,提出了探討城市化對經(jīng)濟增長影響機制的論題,并通過協(xié)整檢驗,對11個國家的城市化與經(jīng)濟增長的協(xié)整關(guān)系進行了檢驗,得出城市化與經(jīng)濟增長之間存在長期均衡關(guān)系。 第二,在協(xié)整檢驗的基礎上,依托面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,以11個國家的GDP為因變量,城市化率、外貿(mào)依存度、服務業(yè)比值、農(nóng)業(yè)比值、居民最終消費支出、資本形成總額、勞動力總?cè)藬?shù)和高等教育入學率這8個變量為自變量,建立面板數(shù)據(jù)模型,估計結(jié)果顯示,居民最終消費支出彈性最大,城市化率排在居民最終消費支出之后,說明城市化對經(jīng)濟增長有直接的影響。 第三,在本文的第四部分,通過構(gòu)建多層統(tǒng)計模型,即以勞動力總?cè)藬?shù)和資本形成總額為自變量,以GDP為因變量的層一方程和以城市化率為主要的自變量的層二方程,對城市化對經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行分析,結(jié)果顯示城市化只有與高等教育入學率一起,才能通過勞動力總?cè)藬?shù)這一變量間接對經(jīng)濟增長產(chǎn)生影響,單一城市化不能通過勞動力總?cè)藬?shù)和資本形成總額間接影響經(jīng)濟增長。在分析過程,還發(fā)現(xiàn)了居民最終消費支出是經(jīng)濟增長在各個國家間存在差異的重要原因。 最后,本文對協(xié)整檢驗、面板數(shù)據(jù)模型和多層統(tǒng)計模型的結(jié)果進行了總結(jié)分析,依據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果提出了在城市化發(fā)展過程中,如何更好的發(fā)展城市化與如何讓經(jīng)濟長久可持續(xù)的發(fā)展的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The city is an inevitable product in the process of economic growth, more and more economists realized between the city and the economic growth is closely connected with the interaction, complement each other, namely in the process of economic growth will be accompanied by a rise in the city level, city level rise in turn to promote economic growth, and city, but also to human capital, material capital, knowledge capital and economic structure factors such as medium, indirect impact on economic growth. At present, the development of the city has been basically completed in developed countries and developing countries, especially China, is at a stage of accelerated development of the city, therefore, through empirical analysis, in-depth study the interaction mechanism between city and economic growth, to improve the city level and economic growth is of great importance.
Based on theoretical and empirical analysis of existing research results, using empirical analysis and normative analysis, systematic and comprehensive analysis of the interaction mechanism between big city development and economic growth, focusing on the city of influence economic growth, at the same time put forward the stage of accelerated development in the city, how to effectively improve the city level but also to promote sustainable economic growth.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
First, on the basis of the existing theoretical research, put forward to explore the city of influence economic growth issues, and through the cointegration test, the relationship between the city and the economic growth of 11 countries of the association of inspection, has long-term equilibrium relationship between the city and the economic growth.
Second, based on the cointegration test, based on the panel data model, the dependent variable in the GDP of the 11 countries, the rate of city, the degree of dependence on foreign trade, service industry ratio, the ratio of agricultural, household final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, total number of labor and higher education enrollment rate of these 8 variables as independent variables. The establishment of panel data model, the estimation results show that household final consumption expenditure elasticity is the biggest city, ranked in the rate of household final consumption expenditure, the city has a direct impact on economic growth.
Third, in the fourth part of this paper, by constructing a multilayer statistical model, with the total number of labor and total capital formation as independent variables, the dependent variable layer equation and the city rate as the main variables of the layer two equation with GDP, the city of impact on economic growth through the analysis of the results shows that the city of only with the higher education enrollment rate, the total number of labor can through the variable indirect impacts on economic growth, a single city can not by the total number of labor and total capital formation indirectly affects economic growth. In the analysis process, also found that the household final consumption expenditure is the economic growth is an important reason for differences in every country.
Finally, we summarize and analyze the results of cointegration test, panel data model and multilevel statistical model. Based on the results of empirical analysis, we put forward policy recommendations on how to better develop urbanization and how to make the economy sustainable and sustainable in the process of urbanization.

【學位授予單位】：海南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F299.11;F112.1

【參考文獻】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張景華;;城市化驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟增長的機制與實證分析[J];財經(jīng)科學;2007年05期

2 黃宇慧;;我國城市化水平與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關(guān)系的計量分析[J];財經(jīng)問題研究;2006年03期

3 李金昌;程開明;;中國城市化與經(jīng)濟增長的動態(tài)計量分析[J];財經(jīng)研究;2006年09期

4 徐雪梅,王燕;城市化對經(jīng)濟增長推動作用的經(jīng)濟學分析[J];城市發(fā)展研究;2004年02期

5 王曼;;農(nóng)民工問題與我國的城市化進程[J];高科技與產(chǎn)業(yè)化;2009年12期

6 郭松;;我國城市化水平對經(jīng)濟增長影響的實證研究[J];黑龍江對外經(jīng)貿(mào);2006年08期

7 程開明;;城市化與經(jīng)濟增長的互動機制及理論模型述評[J];經(jīng)濟評論;2007年04期

8 余慧芬;;對中國城鎮(zhèn)化進程的分析與思考[J];價值工程;2010年29期

9 王香瑞;;圖書館在我國城市化進程中的作用[J];科技致富向?qū)?2011年02期

10 紀敏;;經(jīng)濟技術(shù)開發(fā)區(qū)特色城市化道路的探索[J];青島農(nóng)業(yè)大學學報(社會科學版);2010年01期

，

本文編號：1359571