本文選題：衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng) + 脆弱性�。� 參考：《北京理工大學(xué)》2015年博士論文

【摘要】：衛(wèi)星通信、衛(wèi)星遙感和衛(wèi)星導(dǎo)航等技術(shù)正在由科學(xué)研究走向大眾應(yīng)用,并推動衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用產(chǎn)業(yè)成為一項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)略新興產(chǎn)業(yè)。衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)作為衛(wèi)星技術(shù)和商業(yè)運(yùn)營結(jié)合的依托載體,屬于復(fù)雜的高科技電子信息系統(tǒng),在技術(shù)運(yùn)行時存在技術(shù)制約、系統(tǒng)故障和外部安全威脅等風(fēng)險因素,在系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃、研制和商業(yè)運(yùn)營過程中也面臨著政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、研發(fā)、管理等方面的風(fēng)險。傳統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險研究主要基于可靠性理論和風(fēng)險管理理論,利用可靠性方法在評估復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)時難以全面考慮人為因素、突發(fā)性威脅因素等影響,利用風(fēng)險管理理論則多強(qiáng)調(diào)外界因素而忽視對系統(tǒng)自身因素的分析。脆弱性用于表征系統(tǒng)受到外部威脅時易損的程度及適應(yīng)或恢復(fù)的能力,綜合考慮了系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部特性和外部風(fēng)險因素,可以有效地解釋系統(tǒng)對風(fēng)險的應(yīng)對能力問題。本文首先綜述了國內(nèi)外脆弱性理論和衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用技術(shù)與產(chǎn)業(yè)風(fēng)險的研究狀況,面向系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行效能和系統(tǒng)壽命指標(biāo),分別提出衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的技術(shù)脆弱性和非技術(shù)脆弱性概念。然后,通過分析典型的衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)和性能特征,建立了系統(tǒng)的一般功能結(jié)構(gòu)模型。根據(jù)系統(tǒng)效能理論和裝備全壽命周期理論,給出衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的效能分配原則,并結(jié)合衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用產(chǎn)業(yè)模式特點(diǎn),分別建立了衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)效能分配體系和壽命指標(biāo)分配體系。再依據(jù)“風(fēng)險-系統(tǒng)脆弱性-風(fēng)險后果”的脆弱性理論模型,構(gòu)造相應(yīng)的系統(tǒng)技術(shù)脆弱性指標(biāo)體系和非技術(shù)脆弱性指標(biāo)體系。最后,在技術(shù)和非技術(shù)脆弱性體系模型的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了基于“風(fēng)險-系統(tǒng)-效能(壽命)”特征的脆弱性路徑概念,通過不同脆弱性路徑之間對比來找出相對較脆弱的環(huán)節(jié)。把系統(tǒng)的結(jié)構(gòu)部件或全壽命周期各階段看作系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn),系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)對于效能(壽命)指標(biāo)的貢獻(xiàn)用效能(壽命)分配權(quán)重因子表示,風(fēng)險因素對系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)的影響程度用風(fēng)險影響權(quán)重因子表示。建立以兩種權(quán)重因子為主要參數(shù)的數(shù)學(xué)模型,實(shí)現(xiàn)對不同路徑的脆弱程度量化,實(shí)現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)的脆弱性評估。通過工程實(shí)例應(yīng)用,驗(yàn)證了該評估方法的合理性和實(shí)用性。脆弱性理論是面向復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)特性研究的新型理論,已經(jīng)有一些學(xué)者將該理論應(yīng)用于航空航天等領(lǐng)域,在他們的研究成果啟發(fā)下,本文的主要創(chuàng)新之處包括以下幾點(diǎn):(1)將脆弱性理論引入衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用技術(shù)與產(chǎn)業(yè)研究領(lǐng)域,構(gòu)建基于風(fēng)險理論的衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)脆弱性模型;(2)結(jié)合傳統(tǒng)衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用技術(shù)及其發(fā)展趨勢,提出統(tǒng)一的衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)定義,并建立衛(wèi)星應(yīng)用系統(tǒng)的一般結(jié)構(gòu)模型;(3)根據(jù)系統(tǒng)效能理論和裝備全壽命周期理論,分別建立針對于系統(tǒng)效能指標(biāo)的系統(tǒng)技術(shù)脆弱性體系和針對全壽命周期指標(biāo)的非技術(shù)脆弱性體系,將脆弱性理論研究與系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行效能、全壽命周期理論相結(jié)合,使脆弱性理論研究更具現(xiàn)實(shí)意義;(4)結(jié)合主觀賦權(quán)法和客觀賦權(quán)法,建立一套綜合的系統(tǒng)脆弱性評估方法,融合了專家主觀信息和各屬性指標(biāo)間的客觀差異性,并提出基于二元語義的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析法,實(shí)現(xiàn)對不同方案的系統(tǒng)脆弱性比較,在工程應(yīng)用中取得了較為理想的效果。
[Abstract]:Satellite communication, satellite remote sensing and satellite navigation technology are moving from scientific research to popular application, and promoting the satellite application industry to become a strategic new industry. Satellite application system, as the support carrier of satellite technology and commercial operation, is a complex high-tech electric sub information system. There are technical constraints in the operation of technology. Risk factors such as system failure and external security threat are also faced with the risk of political, economic, research and management in the process of system planning, development and business operation. The traditional system risk research is mainly based on the theory of reliability and risk management, and it is difficult to consider the people in a comprehensive way when evaluating the complex system by using the reliability method. In terms of factors, sudden threat factors and so on, the theory of risk management emphasizes external factors and neglects the analysis of the factors of the system. Vulnerability is used to characterize the degree of vulnerability and the ability to adapt or recover when the system is threatened by external threats. It takes into account the internal and external risk factors of the system, and can effectively explain the system. This paper first summarizes the domestic and foreign vulnerability theory and the research status of the satellite application technology and industrial risk, facing the system operation efficiency and the system life index, and respectively proposes the technical vulnerability and the non technical vulnerability of the satellite application system. Then, the typical satellite application system is analyzed. The general functional structure model of the system is established. According to the theory of system effectiveness and the theory of whole life cycle equipment, the principle of efficiency allocation for satellite application system is given. The efficiency distribution system of satellite application system and the distribution system of life index are established according to the characteristics of the satellite application industry model. The vulnerability theory model of risk system vulnerability risk consequence is constructed, and the corresponding system technology vulnerability index system and non technical vulnerability index system are constructed. Finally, on the basis of the technology and non technical vulnerability system model, the concept of vulnerability path based on the characteristics of "risk system effectiveness (life)" is put forward, and the difference is different from that of the system. A relatively fragile link is found between the vulnerability paths. The structural components of the system or all phases of the whole life cycle are regarded as the system nodes, and the contribution of the system nodes to the performance (life) index is expressed by the weight factor of the efficiency (life) allocation, and the impact of the risk factors on the system nodes is expressed by the risk influence weight factor. A mathematical model with two weight factors as the main parameter is established to quantify the vulnerability of different paths and to realize the vulnerability assessment of the system. The rationality and practicability of the evaluation method is verified by the application of an engineering example. The theory of vulnerability is a new theory for the research of the characteristics of complex systems. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) introducing vulnerability theory into the field of satellite application and industry research, constructing the vulnerability model of satellite application system based on risk theory; (2) combining with the traditional satellite application technology and its development trend, The unified satellite application system definition and the general structure model of the satellite application system are established. (3) according to the system effectiveness theory and the equipment life cycle theory, the system technology vulnerability system and the non technical vulnerability system for the whole life cycle index are established respectively, and the vulnerability theory is studied and studied. The system operation efficiency and the whole life cycle theory combine to make the research of the vulnerability theory more realistic. (4) combining the subjective empowerment method and the objective empowerment method, a comprehensive system vulnerability assessment method is set up, which combines the subjective information of the expert and the objectivity difference between the attribute indexes, and puts forward the grey relational grade based on the two element semantics. The analysis method achieves the comparison of system vulnerabilities of different schemes, and achieves an ideal effect in engineering application.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：V19;V474

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