本文選題：預測 + 系統(tǒng)動力學模型��； 參考：《內蒙古科技大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：新世紀以來，稀土資源廣泛應用于政治、經濟、軍事這三個領域。稀土資源是不可再生性資源，日本、美國等國早已構建了自己的稀土儲備機制，我國也必須盡早建立自己的稀土資源儲備體系。我國稀土資源儲量居世界第一，是名副其實的稀土資源大國，但長期以來，由于稀土監(jiān)管薄弱，導致一些企業(yè)在稀土開采環(huán)節(jié)亂采私挖，走私猖獗，而稀土產業(yè)又缺乏科學合理的規(guī)劃，導致稀土產業(yè)鏈不均衡的現(xiàn)狀，在稀土產品領域缺乏技術創(chuàng)新，使得生產的稀土產品結構單一化，而且大多集中在低附加值、低端產品，使得我國稀土對國際貿易的影響一直沒有占據(jù)主導地位，資源浪費嚴重，環(huán)境污染嚴重，定價權嚴重缺乏，由此可見，我國稀土資源已瀕臨資源匱乏的邊緣地帶，同時中國在稀土國際貿易地位長期受制于歐美國家，所以進行稀土戰(zhàn)略儲備是行之有效的方式，可以避免上述稀土市場存在的的各種問題，也是維護我國各領域發(fā)展的基本前提，成為了奠定我國堅持走可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路上一塊不可或缺的基石。 本文運用系統(tǒng)動力學方法對我國稀土戰(zhàn)略儲備規(guī)模問題進行仿真研究。首先在文獻研究的基礎上，對稀土戰(zhàn)略儲備內涵和方式等方面進行梳理；其次運用分析綜合法闡述了我國資源分布現(xiàn)狀以及稀土產業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，分析了我國稀土產業(yè)鏈結構、我國稀土產業(yè)競爭力、我國稀土國際貿易現(xiàn)狀以及我國稀土產業(yè)面臨的問題，，由此引出了我國實施稀土儲備的意義，通過結合日本、美國等國家在構建稀土儲備體系方面的成功經驗，結合我國稀土產業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，然后分析影響戰(zhàn)略稀土儲備相關因素，選取其中影響較大的因素作為模型的主要因素，確定各相關因素間的相互影響機制，設計兩種方案來研究未來15年稀土儲備規(guī)模。方案一范圍是（-0%，+0%），仿真預測出稀土未來15年累積儲備量為720551噸，即戰(zhàn)略儲備規(guī)模達到720551噸，該方案下不論供需差發(fā)生如何波動，國家都會進行儲備或釋放調節(jié)；方案二范圍是（-20%,+20%），預測出未來15年戰(zhàn)略儲備規(guī)模為461331噸，國家只需在這個范圍外進行收儲釋放調節(jié)，從而調節(jié)市場供求，降低價格波動幅度；最后根據(jù)模型仿真的應用結果說明我國在構建稀土儲備體系時應根據(jù)市場形勢變化對我國稀土儲備作出動態(tài)的科學的合理的調整，同時為儲備體系的建立提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, rare earth resources have been widely used in political, economic and military fields.Rare earth resources are non-renewable resources, Japan, the United States and other countries have established their own rare earth reserve mechanism, China must also establish its own rare earth resources reserve system as soon as possible.Our country has the largest reserves of rare earth resources in the world and is a country of rare earth resources worthy of its name. However, for a long time, because of the weak supervision of rare earths, some enterprises have been mining and digging privately in rare earth mining links, and smuggling is rampant.However, the rare earth industry lacks scientific and reasonable planning, which leads to the unbalanced status quo of the rare earth industry chain, lack of technological innovation in the field of rare earth products, which makes the structure of the rare earth products single, and most of them are concentrated in low value-added, low-end products.The impact of rare earths on international trade in China has not occupied a dominant position, the waste of resources is serious, environmental pollution is serious, and the pricing power is seriously lacking. Thus, it can be seen that China's rare earth resources have been on the verge of resource scarcity.At the same time, China's status in the international trade of rare earths has long been restricted by European and American countries, so the strategic reserve of rare earths is an effective way to avoid the various problems existing in the above-mentioned rare earth market.It is also the basic premise of maintaining the development of various fields in our country and has become an indispensable foundation stone for our country to adhere to the road of sustainable development.In this paper, the scale of rare earth strategic reserve in China is simulated by system dynamics method.First of all, on the basis of literature research, this paper combs the connotation and mode of the strategic reserve of rare earths. Secondly, it explains the present situation of the distribution of resources and the development of rare earth industry, and analyzes the structure of the industrial chain of rare earths in China by using the comprehensive analysis method.The competitiveness of China's rare earth industry, the current situation of China's rare earth international trade and the problems faced by China's rare earth industry lead to the significance of China's implementation of rare earth reserves, through the combination of Japan,The successful experience of the United States and other countries in the construction of rare earth reserve system, combined with the current situation of rare earth industry development in China, then analyzes the related factors affecting the strategic rare earth reserves, and selects the factors that have a greater impact as the main factors in the model.Two schemes are designed to study the scale of rare earth reserves in the next 15 years.The first scheme is that the accumulative reserve of rare earth in the next 15 years is 720551 tons, that is, the scale of strategic reserve is 720551 tons. Under this scheme, no matter how the difference between supply and demand fluctuates, the country will carry out reserve or release regulation;The second plan scope is "-20", "20", predicted that the next 15 years strategic reserve scale is 461331 tons, the state only need to carry out the regulation of storage and release outside this range, so as to adjust the market supply and demand, and reduce the range of price fluctuation;Finally, according to the application results of model simulation, it is shown that China should make dynamic scientific and reasonable adjustment of rare earth reserves according to the changes of market situation, and provide policy suggestions for the establishment of reserve system.
【學位授予單位】：內蒙古科技大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426;N941.3

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