本文選題：預(yù)測(cè) + 系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型　； 參考：《內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：新世紀(jì)以來(lái)，稀土資源廣泛應(yīng)用于政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、軍事這三個(gè)領(lǐng)域。稀土資源是不可再生性資源，日本、美國(guó)等國(guó)早已構(gòu)建了自己的稀土儲(chǔ)備機(jī)制，我國(guó)也必須盡早建立自己的稀土資源儲(chǔ)備體系。我國(guó)稀土資源儲(chǔ)量居世界第一，是名副其實(shí)的稀土資源大國(guó)，但長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，由于稀土監(jiān)管薄弱，導(dǎo)致一些企業(yè)在稀土開(kāi)采環(huán)節(jié)亂采私挖，走私猖獗，而稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)又缺乏科學(xué)合理的規(guī)劃，導(dǎo)致稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈不均衡的現(xiàn)狀，在稀土產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域缺乏技術(shù)創(chuàng)新，使得生產(chǎn)的稀土產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)單一化，而且大多集中在低附加值、低端產(chǎn)品，使得我國(guó)稀土對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的影響一直沒(méi)有占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位，資源浪費(fèi)嚴(yán)重，環(huán)境污染嚴(yán)重，定價(jià)權(quán)嚴(yán)重缺乏，由此可見(jiàn)，我國(guó)稀土資源已瀕臨資源匱乏的邊緣地帶，同時(shí)中國(guó)在稀土國(guó)際貿(mào)易地位長(zhǎng)期受制于歐美國(guó)家，所以進(jìn)行稀土戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備是行之有效的方式，可以避免上述稀土市場(chǎng)存在的的各種問(wèn)題，也是維護(hù)我國(guó)各領(lǐng)域發(fā)展的基本前提，成為了奠定我國(guó)堅(jiān)持走可持續(xù)發(fā)展道路上一塊不可或缺的基石。 本文運(yùn)用系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法對(duì)我國(guó)稀土戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模問(wèn)題進(jìn)行仿真研究。首先在文獻(xiàn)研究的基礎(chǔ)上，對(duì)稀土戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備內(nèi)涵和方式等方面進(jìn)行梳理；其次運(yùn)用分析綜合法闡述了我國(guó)資源分布現(xiàn)狀以及稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，分析了我國(guó)稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈結(jié)構(gòu)、我國(guó)稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力、我國(guó)稀土國(guó)際貿(mào)易現(xiàn)狀以及我國(guó)稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)面臨的問(wèn)題，，由此引出了我國(guó)實(shí)施稀土儲(chǔ)備的意義，通過(guò)結(jié)合日本、美國(guó)等國(guó)家在構(gòu)建稀土儲(chǔ)備體系方面的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)，結(jié)合我國(guó)稀土產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀，然后分析影響戰(zhàn)略稀土儲(chǔ)備相關(guān)因素，選取其中影響較大的因素作為模型的主要因素，確定各相關(guān)因素間的相互影響機(jī)制，設(shè)計(jì)兩種方案來(lái)研究未來(lái)15年稀土儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模。方案一范圍是（-0%，+0%），仿真預(yù)測(cè)出稀土未來(lái)15年累積儲(chǔ)備量為720551噸，即戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模達(dá)到720551噸，該方案下不論供需差發(fā)生如何波動(dòng)，國(guó)家都會(huì)進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)備或釋放調(diào)節(jié)；方案二范圍是（-20%,+20%），預(yù)測(cè)出未來(lái)15年戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模為461331噸，國(guó)家只需在這個(gè)范圍外進(jìn)行收儲(chǔ)釋放調(diào)節(jié)，從而調(diào)節(jié)市場(chǎng)供求，降低價(jià)格波動(dòng)幅度；最后根據(jù)模型仿真的應(yīng)用結(jié)果說(shuō)明我國(guó)在構(gòu)建稀土儲(chǔ)備體系時(shí)應(yīng)根據(jù)市場(chǎng)形勢(shì)變化對(duì)我國(guó)稀土儲(chǔ)備作出動(dòng)態(tài)的科學(xué)的合理的調(diào)整，同時(shí)為儲(chǔ)備體系的建立提供政策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the new century, rare earth resources have been widely used in political, economic and military fields.Rare earth resources are non-renewable resources, Japan, the United States and other countries have established their own rare earth reserve mechanism, China must also establish its own rare earth resources reserve system as soon as possible.Our country has the largest reserves of rare earth resources in the world and is a country of rare earth resources worthy of its name. However, for a long time, because of the weak supervision of rare earths, some enterprises have been mining and digging privately in rare earth mining links, and smuggling is rampant.However, the rare earth industry lacks scientific and reasonable planning, which leads to the unbalanced status quo of the rare earth industry chain, lack of technological innovation in the field of rare earth products, which makes the structure of the rare earth products single, and most of them are concentrated in low value-added, low-end products.The impact of rare earths on international trade in China has not occupied a dominant position, the waste of resources is serious, environmental pollution is serious, and the pricing power is seriously lacking. Thus, it can be seen that China's rare earth resources have been on the verge of resource scarcity.At the same time, China's status in the international trade of rare earths has long been restricted by European and American countries, so the strategic reserve of rare earths is an effective way to avoid the various problems existing in the above-mentioned rare earth market.It is also the basic premise of maintaining the development of various fields in our country and has become an indispensable foundation stone for our country to adhere to the road of sustainable development.In this paper, the scale of rare earth strategic reserve in China is simulated by system dynamics method.First of all, on the basis of literature research, this paper combs the connotation and mode of the strategic reserve of rare earths. Secondly, it explains the present situation of the distribution of resources and the development of rare earth industry, and analyzes the structure of the industrial chain of rare earths in China by using the comprehensive analysis method.The competitiveness of China's rare earth industry, the current situation of China's rare earth international trade and the problems faced by China's rare earth industry lead to the significance of China's implementation of rare earth reserves, through the combination of Japan,The successful experience of the United States and other countries in the construction of rare earth reserve system, combined with the current situation of rare earth industry development in China, then analyzes the related factors affecting the strategic rare earth reserves, and selects the factors that have a greater impact as the main factors in the model.Two schemes are designed to study the scale of rare earth reserves in the next 15 years.The first scheme is that the accumulative reserve of rare earth in the next 15 years is 720551 tons, that is, the scale of strategic reserve is 720551 tons. Under this scheme, no matter how the difference between supply and demand fluctuates, the country will carry out reserve or release regulation;The second plan scope is "-20", "20", predicted that the next 15 years strategic reserve scale is 461331 tons, the state only need to carry out the regulation of storage and release outside this range, so as to adjust the market supply and demand, and reduce the range of price fluctuation;Finally, according to the application results of model simulation, it is shown that China should make dynamic scientific and reasonable adjustment of rare earth reserves according to the changes of market situation, and provide policy suggestions for the establishment of reserve system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：內(nèi)蒙古科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426;N941.3

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