本文選題：東盟　切入點：貿易政策　出處：《武漢大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：東盟國家是新興經濟體的重要代表,二戰(zhàn)后創(chuàng)造的經濟增長奇跡為世界所矚目。東盟的區(qū)域經濟一體化和貿易自由化是發(fā)展中國家在經濟全球化和區(qū)域經濟一體化進程中成功進行合作的典范。東盟國家雖然受到發(fā)展中國家經濟發(fā)展水平的制約,但其經濟效應仍然比較顯著,非傳統利益也是東盟國家一體化的目標之一。自1967年東盟成立以來,東盟區(qū)域經濟一體化的合作曲折前進,從最初的重視不夠,認識不夠,到有意識的推進,在東盟特殊的政治、歷史和文化因素影響下,形成了東盟國家在區(qū)域合作中特有的“東盟方式”(ASEAN Way)。隨著經濟全球化浪潮的發(fā)展和國際區(qū)域經濟一體化的進程的加快,東盟國家不斷克服現實中存在的問題,在20世紀90年代初期東盟決心把區(qū)域經濟一體化作為其最終的發(fā)展目標。至今,東盟的經濟一體化正在結出碩果,其標志是東盟本身不斷擴大,由最初的6個國家發(fā)展到10個國家,而且東盟分別與中國、美國、日本和韓國的合作不斷深化,在東亞地區(qū)形成“10+3”合作模式。中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)的建成和發(fā)展,東盟內部國家經濟聯系與合作的加深,使得東盟已成為國際社會一支重要的經濟與政治力量。 本文通過文獻研究、抽象歷史思維分析、理論分析、實證分析、定性和定量相結合的分析方法對東盟國家的貿易政策及其經濟效應進行研究,較全面的分析了東盟國家貿易自由化政策的形成、發(fā)展、特點以及對東盟地區(qū)國家經濟增長、就業(yè)水平和中國對其直接投資與貿易流量等方面的影響,分析東盟貿易政策的演變以及貿易政策在東盟主要國家中實施的情況,使用搜集到的統計數據描述和計量分析的實證方法定量分析了東盟貿易政策的實施效果,實證檢驗了東盟貿易政策對東盟國家內部的經濟增長和就業(yè)水平的影響以及對中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)的經濟效應。東盟國家貿易自由化政策的形成和發(fā)展受到的各種經濟理論、政治因素、歷史文化因素的影響。東盟國家的貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)的經濟增長和就業(yè)起到了較明顯的積極作用,雖然不同國家由于經濟發(fā)展水平和政治文化差異呈現不平衡的狀況。東盟國家的貿易開放政策對中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)進程的加快也起到了促進作用。 本文使用了擴展的柯布-道格拉斯生產函數,把貿易開放水平作為內生的技術進步因素引入到生產函數中,建立計量經濟模型實證分析了東盟國家貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)國家的經濟增長的影響效應,構建東盟國家貿易開放度與就業(yè)水平的計量經濟模型,研究東盟國家貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)就業(yè)的影響。通過分析中國對東盟國家直接投資和商品服務貿易與東盟國家貿易開放水平的定量關系,研究東盟國家的貿易自由化政策對中國投資東盟和進出口的影響效應,為中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)的建成發(fā)展提供對策建議。 本文一共分為6章。 第1章為導論,闡述了文章的研究背景和意義,對相關的研究文獻進行了綜合評述,并就論文的研究方法和主要內容作了簡要概括,列舉了本文的創(chuàng)新點和不足。 第2章為本文的理論基礎部分,梳理了國際經濟學理論中關于貿易政策的各種理論,包括重商主義學派、古典貿易理論、新古典貿易理論和戰(zhàn)略性貿易理論,特別分析了這些主要理論關于貿易政策的主張。 第3章通過文獻研究的方法概括了東盟國家的貿易自由化政策的形成、經濟一體化進程和貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)國家經濟發(fā)展、產業(yè)結構和技術進步等方面的影響,分析了東盟國家在形成統一的貿易自由化政策和區(qū)域經濟一體化合作中所受到的政治經濟文化的影響和各種不同經濟理論的指導。 第4章通過收集東盟各國對外貿易的經濟數據,描述了東盟國家在實施貿易自由化政策后對本國和地區(qū)的貿易流量的影響,說明貿易開放政策促進了本地區(qū)的貿易流量。從貿易自由化政策對經濟增長和就業(yè)水平的影響兩個方面,通過建立計量經濟學模型使用相應的數據實證研究東盟國家的貿易開放水平對成員國經濟增長和就業(yè)水平的影響效應。 第5章首先簡要回顧了東盟國家與中國進行區(qū)域經濟一體化合作和中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)發(fā)展的歷史和前景,然后使用計量經濟學實證分析的方法研究東盟國家的貿易開放政策對中國直接投資(包括流量和存量)東盟和進出口的影響效應。 第6章在以上理論和實證分析的基礎上,對全文進行了總結并從中國的角度提出相應的對策建議。從東盟地區(qū)的復雜情況來看,目前東盟國家的貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)和中國與東盟雙邊的貿易影響仍然有限,主要受到國際政治、國際關系和安全等因素的制約較明顯,因此經濟一體化合作一方面需要國家間的政治穩(wěn)定保障,另一方面,經濟合作也會對雙邊的政治互信帶來推動作用。 本文的結論認為,東盟國家的貿易自由化政策對本地區(qū)的經濟增長和就業(yè)都起到了較明顯的積極作用,雖然不同國家由于經濟發(fā)展水平和政治文化差異而呈現不平衡的狀況。東盟國家的貿易開放政策加快了中國-東盟自由貿易區(qū)的進程,對雙邊直接投資和貿易流量的增長具有顯著的促進作用。
[Abstract]:ASEAN is an important representative of emerging economies, after World War II created the miracle of economic growth attracted the attention of the world. The ASEAN regional economic integration and trade liberalization is developing a model of successful cooperation in economic globalization and regional economic integration process in ASEAN countries. Although restricted by the level of economic development in developing countries, but its economic effect is still significantly, one goal of non traditional interest is the integration of ASEAN countries. Since 1967 the establishment of ASEAN, ASEAN regional economic integration cooperation from the twists and turns, not enough attention, the initial understanding is not enough, to promote awareness of the ASEAN in the special political, historical and cultural factors, forming a unique region in ASEAN countries cooperation in the "ASEAN Way" (ASEAN Way). With the economic globalization and the development of international regional economic integration To accelerate the process of ASEAN countries continue to overcome the problems existing in reality, at the beginning of 1990s, ASEAN is determined to regional economic integration as its ultimate development goal. So far, ASEAN economic integration is the fruits, it is marked by the development of ASEAN itself continues to expand, the first 6 to 10 countries, and ASEAN respectively. With Chinese, the United States, Japan and South Korea have deepened cooperation in East Asia, the formation of the "10+3" mode of cooperation. Chinese completed and development of ASEAN Free Trade Area, the ASEAN countries to deepen economic ties and cooperation, the ASEAN has become the international community an important economic and political power.
This article through the literature research, analysis, abstract historical thinking, theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, research and analysis both qualitative and quantitative methods for ASEAN countries trade policy and economic effects, a comprehensive analysis of the formation of free trade policy in the development of the ASEAN countries, and the characteristics of the national economic growth in the ASEAN region, direct investment and trade flows and other aspects of the employment level and China, analysis of the evolution of ASEAN trade policy and trade policy in the major countries in ASEAN, the use of quantitative empirical analysis of statistical data description and measurement of the collected analysis the effect of ASEAN trade policy, an empirical analysis of the influence of ASEAN trade policy the ASEAN countries within the level of economic growth and employment and economic effects on the Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area of ASEAN free trade policy. All kinds of economic theory, the formation and development of policy by political factors, historical and cultural factors. The influence of trade liberalization policy in ASEAN countries a positive role for the region's economic growth and employment, while different countries because of the level of economic development and political and cultural differences and unbalanced situation. To speed up the ASEAN countries the trade policy on Chinese ASEAN Free Trade Area also plays a role.
This paper uses the extended Cobb Douglas production function, the technology progress level of openness as the endogenous factors into the production function, an econometric model and empirical analysis of the effect of trade liberalization policies of ASEAN countries in the region's economic growth, constructing an econometric model of ASEAN trade openness and employment the level of influence of ASEAN trade liberalization policies on local employment. Through the analysis of the relationship between Chinese direct investment to ASEAN countries and trade in goods and services trade with ASEAN countries the level of opening up the quantitative effect of trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries and ASEAN Investment China influence on import and export, and provide suggestions and strategies for Chinese ASEAN Free trade area development.
This article is divided into 6 chapters.
The first chapter is the introduction, which describes the background and significance of the article, reviews the related research literatures, and summarizes the research methods and main contents of the paper, listing the innovation and shortcomings of this paper.
The second chapter is the theoretical basis of this thesis, analyzes various theories about trade policy theory in international economics, including mercantilism school, classical trade theory, new classical trade theory and strategic trade theory, especially analyzes the claims that the main theories about trade policy.
The third chapter summarizes the formation of trade liberalization policies of ASEAN countries through literature research methods, the process of economic integration and trade liberalization policies on national economic development in the region, the influence of industrial structure and technological progress, analyzes the influence of the ASEAN countries in the form of trade liberalization policy and regional economic integration cooperation unified in the political and economic culture and different economic theory.
The fourth chapter through the economic data collection of ASEAN foreign trade, describes the impact of the ASEAN countries of trade flows on the country and region in the implementation of trade liberalization policy, that open trade policies to promote trade flows in the area. By two aspects affect the length and level of employment to the economy from the trade liberalization policy, through the establishment of econometric models using empirical data on the corresponding ASEAN trade liberalization impact on the members of the level of economic growth and employment effects.
The fifth chapter reviews the history and Prospect of ASEAN regional economic integration and cooperation Chinese - the development of ASEAN Free Trade Area and China, then use the ASEAN trade policy research methods empirical econometric analysis of direct investment China (including stock and flow) effect of ASEAN and import and export.
The sixth chapter analysis the above theoretical and empirical analysis, summarizes the whole thesis and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of Chinese. From the complex situation in the ASEAN region, the trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries in the region and China ASEAN bilateral trade influence is still limited, mainly by the international politics. The constraints of international relations and security factors are obvious, so the economic integration cooperation between countries to safeguard political stability, on the other hand, economic cooperation will also have a role in promoting the bilateral political mutual trust.
The paper concludes that the trade liberalization policy of ASEAN countries of the region's economic growth and employment has played a positive role is obvious, although different countries and unbalanced condition due to the level of economic development and political and cultural differences. ASEAN countries open trade policy to speed up China ASEAN Free Trade Zone process that has significant effect on the bilateral trade flows of direct investment and growth.

【學位授予單位】：武漢大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F114.46;F752.7
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本文編號：1635631