本文關(guān)鍵詞：大氣污染治理對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的CGE模型分析　出處：《對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 霧霾治理 CGE模型 大氣污染 情景模擬 中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

【摘要】：改革開放30多年以來(lái),中國(guó)在政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)、教育、體育、軍事等眾多方面取得了舉世矚目的成就。然而,在環(huán)境方面尤其是大氣環(huán)境方面的問題卻日益突出。在此背景下,本文建立了一套動(dòng)態(tài)多區(qū)域一般均衡模型,用以模擬分析各類大氣污染治理措施的治理效果及可能帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果。在模型方面,本文改變了傳統(tǒng)文獻(xiàn)使用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)模型分析問題的思路,探索性地建立了多區(qū)域動(dòng)態(tài)CGE模型。在現(xiàn)有研究成果中,使用該方法分析治理霧霾對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的文獻(xiàn)并不多見。在模型的結(jié)構(gòu)設(shè)計(jì)方面,本文構(gòu)造了生產(chǎn)、消費(fèi)、進(jìn)出口、區(qū)域間調(diào)入調(diào)出、投資、污染物排放等多個(gè)模塊。此外,為了研究減排政策對(duì)當(dāng)期及以后各期的影響,分析持續(xù)性減排政策的后果,本文以遞歸方式搭建了動(dòng)態(tài)模塊,將模擬時(shí)期設(shè)定為2030年。在數(shù)據(jù)方面,本文采用最新可獲得的《2010年中國(guó)30省區(qū)市區(qū)域間投入產(chǎn)出表》。在地理范圍上,本文將中國(guó)劃分為長(zhǎng)三角、東北、環(huán)京津冀、京津冀、南部、西北、西南、中部和珠三角九個(gè)地區(qū)。在情景設(shè)置方面,本文模擬了治理大氣污染常用的三類政策手段:污染稅、排放權(quán)交易機(jī)制和科技創(chuàng)新。在第四章,本文梳理了通過污染稅手段治理環(huán)境的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論,從庇古稅、福利經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等角度闡明了污染稅在治理環(huán)境時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論。本文梳理了大量研究文獻(xiàn),總結(jié)了他們?cè)谀M硫稅、碳稅時(shí)針對(duì)不同國(guó)家執(zhí)行稅率的分析經(jīng)驗(yàn),設(shè)定了4套適合中國(guó)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r的污染稅政策。分別為單一低稅率情景(A01)、單一高稅率情景(A02)、時(shí)期差異化情景(A03)和地區(qū)差異化情景(A04)。模擬結(jié)果顯示:(1)實(shí)施污染稅政策能夠顯著地降低PM2.5年均濃度。(2)實(shí)施二氧化硫稅政策會(huì)增加名義GDP,但導(dǎo)致實(shí)際GDP下降。(3)在政策執(zhí)行或變動(dòng)的當(dāng)年,稅收政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊最大,而后期變化幅度較小。(4)在某些地區(qū)執(zhí)行硫稅政策而其他地區(qū)不執(zhí)行時(shí),執(zhí)行政策的地區(qū)污染排量降低,但不執(zhí)行政策的地區(qū)排量增加,即存在污染泄露問題。在第五章,本文根據(jù)對(duì)SO2排放量約束的不同程度設(shè)計(jì)了三種排放權(quán)交易情景,由寬松到嚴(yán)格依次B01、B02和B03情景。模擬結(jié)果表明:(1)實(shí)施排放權(quán)交易機(jī)制對(duì)SO2排放量進(jìn)行管制,會(huì)導(dǎo)致中國(guó)實(shí)際GDP相對(duì)于基準(zhǔn)情景下降、GDP平減指數(shù)上升、名義GDP上升。(2)在只有部分地區(qū)實(shí)行排放權(quán)交易制度的B01情景下,4個(gè)空氣污染嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)大氣質(zhì)量明顯好轉(zhuǎn),然而未實(shí)施政策的5個(gè)地區(qū)的PM2.5年均濃度反而高于基準(zhǔn)情景。(3)SO2排放權(quán)交易價(jià)格在污染嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)明顯高于輕污染地區(qū),而且隨著時(shí)間的推移其價(jià)格越來(lái)越高。(4)實(shí)施二氧化硫排放權(quán)交易機(jī)制會(huì)導(dǎo)致各類商品的生產(chǎn)成本及銷售價(jià)格普遍上漲。在第六章,本文針對(duì)提高能源利用效率(D01)和能源清潔技術(shù)進(jìn)步(D02)兩類科技進(jìn)行了模擬情景設(shè)置,同時(shí)增加設(shè)置了科技進(jìn)步與征收二氧化硫稅的復(fù)合情景(D03和D04)。模擬結(jié)果顯示:(1)提高能源利用效率能夠?qū)暧^經(jīng)濟(jì)和就業(yè)帶來(lái)一定的正面效應(yīng),同時(shí)有助于降低大氣中的污染物濃度。(2)在能效提高與硫稅復(fù)合的情景中,能效提高可以顯著地緩解甚至徹底抵消了征收污染稅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響,同時(shí)大氣污染物排放量略有降低,就業(yè)量小幅上升。(3)大力發(fā)展能源清潔技術(shù)能夠緩解當(dāng)前嚴(yán)重的霧霾問題;與硫稅政策同時(shí)執(zhí)行時(shí),還有助于降低實(shí)際GDP的受損程度。(4)如果清潔技術(shù)足夠發(fā)達(dá),那么硫稅對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的抑制作用將大大降低,其經(jīng)濟(jì)總量與基準(zhǔn)情景下的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量大體相當(dāng)。在第七章,本文梳理了日本、美國(guó)、英國(guó)等5個(gè)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家曾經(jīng)遭受的大氣污染問題,歸納總結(jié)了它們治理大氣污染的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)。大氣污染問題幾乎是每個(gè)國(guó)家從落后走向發(fā)達(dá)的“必經(jīng)階段”,而且各國(guó)大氣污染最嚴(yán)重的時(shí)期大多處于它們的工業(yè)化、城市化進(jìn)程中。然而,它們通過各自適合自身的措施成功地治愈了大氣污染問題。這些措施歸納起來(lái)可分為政府立法、科技創(chuàng)新、調(diào)整能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)和市場(chǎng)化行為等。根據(jù)本文的模擬結(jié)果及發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家治理污染的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn),本文提出若干政策建議,以供政策制定者參考。首先,治理大氣污染必須從頂層設(shè)計(jì)入手進(jìn)行統(tǒng)籌規(guī)劃。其次,中國(guó)必須加快環(huán)境保護(hù)類的法治建設(shè),為治理大氣污染提供法律保障。再次,政府應(yīng)該完善公民參與機(jī)制,充分調(diào)動(dòng)起公民參與治理大氣污染的積極性。最后,提高科學(xué)技術(shù)水平是治理大氣污染的最根本、最有效的手段之一。此外,優(yōu)化能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu),降低煤炭在一次能源消費(fèi)中的比重是解決當(dāng)前大氣污染最直接的途徑。值得一提的是,充分利用市場(chǎng)機(jī)制治理大氣污染是行政強(qiáng)制減排的有力補(bǔ)充,也能夠激勵(lì)企業(yè)進(jìn)行技術(shù)革新,加快科技創(chuàng)新的步伐,還能夠引導(dǎo)能源消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)朝著更合理的方向調(diào)整。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese in politics, economy, education, sports, military and other aspects have made remarkable achievements. However, in terms of the environment especially the atmospheric environmental problems have become increasingly prominent. Under this background, this paper established a dynamic multi region general equilibrium model for simulation and analysis of governance all kinds of measures of air pollution control effect and the possible economic consequences. In the model, this paper changes the traditional literature uses econometric model to analyze the problems, explore the establishment of multi area dynamic CGE model. In the current research, analysis of governance haze on the economic impact of the literature using this method is rare in terms of structure design model, this paper constructs the production, consumption, import and export, regional transferred to transfer, investment, pollutant emissions and other modules. In addition, for the study of emission reduction policies Effect of current and future periods, sustainability analysis of emission reduction policy consequences, this paper recursively constructed dynamic module, the simulation period is set for 2030. In terms of data, this paper uses the regional China 30 provinces and municipalities in the latest available <2010 input output table. In the scope of science, this paper will China divided into the Yangtze River Delta, northeast ring, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, Beijing Tianjin Hebei, South, northwest, southwest, central and the Pearl River Delta region. The nine set in the scene, this paper simulates the governance of the three policy tools: air pollution pollution tax, emissions trading mechanism and technological innovation. In the fourth chapter, this paper reviews by means of environmental pollution tax economics theory, from the perspective of Pigou tax, welfare economics expounds pollution tax economics theory in the governance environment. This paper reviews many literatures, summarizes them in the simulation of sulfur tax, carbon tax Analysis of the experience of different countries in the implementation of tax clockwise, setting up 4 sets for the current economic development situation of the Chinese pollution tax policy. Low tax rates were for a single scenario (A01), a single high rate scenario (A02), time difference scenarios (A03) scenarios and area difference (A04). The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of pollution tax policy can significantly reduce the annual concentration of PM2.5. (2) the implementation of sulfur dioxide tax policy will increase the nominal GDP, but led to the decline in real GDP. (3) or when the change in policy implementation, the impact of tax policy on the economy's largest, and later changed little. (4) the sulfur tax policy implementation in some areas, while other areas do not perform well when the implementation of the policy of regional pollution emissions decreased, but not the implementation of the policy area increase displacement, there is pollution leakage problem. In the fifth chapter, this paper designed three kinds of emissions according to different degrees of SO2 emission constraint Trading scenarios, from loose to strict order of B01, B02 and B03. The simulation results show that: (1) the implementation of emissions trading mechanism to control SO2 emissions, will lead to the actual GDP China decreased compared with the baseline scenario, the GDP deflator rose, nominal GDP rose. (2) the implementation of emissions trading system in the only part of the B01 scenario, 4 air pollution serious regional air quality improved significantly, the annual concentration of 5 regions but not the implementation of the policy of PM2.5 is higher than that of the baseline scenario. (3) SO2 emissions trading price in polluted areas was higher than that of the light pollution area, and with the passage of time, the price is more and more more high. (4) the implementation of sulfur dioxide emissions trading mechanism will lead to a general increase in all kinds of goods in the production cost and the selling price. In the sixth chapter, aiming at improving energy efficiency and clean energy (D01) technology (D02) Two kinds of technology to simulate scene setting, while increasing the composite scene setting and the progress of science and technology of sulfur dioxide tax (D03 and D04). The simulation results show that: (1) improve the efficiency of energy use can have a positive effect on the macro economy and employment, while helping to reduce the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere (2. In the context of improving energy efficiency) and sulfur tax composite, energy efficiency can significantly alleviate or even completely offset the negative impact of pollution tax on the economy, while the emissions of air pollutants decreased slightly, the volume of employment slightly rise. (3) vigorously develop clean energy technology can alleviate the current severe haze problem; at the same time the implementation of with the sulfur tax policy, also help to reduce the damage degree of the actual GDP. (4) if the cleaning technology developed enough, then the inhibitory effects of sulfur tax on the real economy will be greatly reduced, and the base of its economy The total economic situation roughly. In the seventh chapter, this paper analyzes the United States, Japan, Britain and other air pollution problems in 5 developed countries have suffered, summarizes their successful experience of air pollution. The air pollution problem is almost every country from behind to developed "stage", and the serious air pollution in most countries during their industrialization, the city in the process. However, through their respective suitable measures to successfully cure the problem of air pollution. These measures can be sum up the legislation for the government, science and technology innovation, the adjustment of energy consumption structure and market behavior. According to the successful experience of the simulation results in this paper and the developed countries to control pollution, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, for policy makers. First of all, air pollution must be from the top-level design of the system Planning. Secondly, we must accelerate the construction of the rule of law China environmental protection, provide legal protection for air pollution. Thirdly, the government should perfect the citizen participation mechanism, and fully mobilize the enthusiasm of the citizens to participate in air pollution control. Finally, improve the level of science and technology is the fundamental treatment of air pollution, one of the most effective means. In addition, the optimization of energy consumption structure, reduce the coal in the proportion of primary energy consumption is the most direct way to solve the current atmospheric pollution. It is worth mentioning that the full use of the market mechanism of air pollution governance is a powerful complement to administrative mandatory emission reduction, can also encourage enterprises to carry out technological innovation, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, but also to guide the energy consumption structure towards a more reasonable direction adjustment.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：X51;F127
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本文編號(hào)：1404038