【摘要】：大型復雜裝備研制項目高風險與參研單位多的特點使得研制過程中風險傳導時有發(fā)生。針對風險傳導要素風險源的識別問題,提出了一種基于關聯(lián)規(guī)則(AR)與決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)的風險源識別方法。該方法從數(shù)據(jù)挖掘的角度,先求解出風險類型與風險因素的關聯(lián)規(guī)則,再求解出風險源之間的影響程度,最后通過DEMATEL得到各風險源相關參數(shù)。并且對某參研單位數(shù)據(jù)庫中某階段的數(shù)據(jù)用此方法完成了風險源的識別,識別結果顯示了各風險類型對應的風險源以及易導致研制項目發(fā)生風險傳導的風險源。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of high risk and many research units in large and complex equipment development project make the risk conduction occur from time to time. A risk source identification method based on association rule (AR) and decision laboratory analysis (DEMATEL) is proposed to identify the risk source of risk conduction elements. From the point of view of data mining, the association rules between risk types and risk factors are first solved, then the degree of influence between risk sources is obtained. Finally, the relevant parameters of each risk source are obtained by DEMATEL. This method is used to identify the risk sources. The results show the corresponding risk sources of each risk type and the risk sources which easily lead to the risk conduction of the development project.
【作者單位】： 北京航空航天大學經(jīng)濟管理學院;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(71332003) 國防基礎科研項目(JSJC2013601C023)~~
【分類號】：F273.1
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本文編號：2317317