本文選題：技術創(chuàng)新風險 + 風險傳導與擴散�。� 參考：《南京大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：由于受到08年全球金融危機的沖擊,我國經(jīng)濟增長速度逐漸放緩、下行壓力持續(xù)增大,"創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動"成為我國應對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)的有效途徑而高收益、高風險是技術創(chuàng)新的兩個顯著特征。高額的經(jīng)濟收益推動著企業(yè)實施技術創(chuàng)新、吸收外部新技術,是技術創(chuàng)新擴散的內(nèi)在動力而技術創(chuàng)新擴散是其促進經(jīng)濟增長的實現(xiàn)途徑;同時,各種不確定性因素的影響使它又具有高風險的特點。技術創(chuàng)新的擴散為風險的擴散提供了可能,一旦技術創(chuàng)新風險隨著技術創(chuàng)新的擴散在市場上大范圍傳播,這必將影響整個市場的正常運行進而影響我國經(jīng)濟社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此,深入了解技術創(chuàng)新風險傳導與擴散的機制具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。本文在梳理相關研究文獻的基礎上總結(jié)了技術創(chuàng)新風險傳導的影響因素、特點和模式,基于復雜網(wǎng)絡理論、擴散理論和個人決策理論從過程的角度提出了兩階段技術創(chuàng)新風險傳導模型。它將風險的傳導與擴散分為兩個階段:技術創(chuàng)新傳導與擴散和技術創(chuàng)新風險傳導與擴散,通過構(gòu)建企業(yè)的決策規(guī)則、交互規(guī)則以及風險轉(zhuǎn)移規(guī)則實現(xiàn)對技術創(chuàng)新風險傳導與擴散過程的邏輯抽象。文章運用Multi Agent的建模方法在Anylogic軟件上實現(xiàn)了這一理論的計算實驗模型,通過4組仿真實驗研究了技術創(chuàng)新類型、技術創(chuàng)新局部趨同程度、企業(yè)異質(zhì)性和政府干預政策對其傳導與擴散過程的影響機制。通過對計算實驗結(jié)果進行分析總結(jié),文章認為企業(yè)局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)是影響技術創(chuàng)新風險能否大范圍擴散的關鍵因素,而技術創(chuàng)新類型、技術創(chuàng)新局部趨同程度、企業(yè)異質(zhì)性是通過影響企業(yè)局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡結(jié)構(gòu)及其疊加范圍和風險在局部協(xié)作網(wǎng)絡內(nèi)的傳導速度來影響風險的傳導與擴散過程,政府干預政策則通過直接影響社會網(wǎng)絡中企業(yè)外部風險的傳導、間接影響技術創(chuàng)新負的網(wǎng)絡外部性來影響相關風險的傳導與擴散過程。
[Abstract]:Due to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the economic growth rate of our country has gradually slowed down, and the downward pressure continues to increase. "Innovation driving" has become an effective way for our country to cope with the new normal of economic development. High risk is two remarkable characteristics of technological innovation. The high economic benefits push enterprises to implement technological innovation and absorb new external technologies, which is the internal motive force of technological innovation diffusion, which is the way to promote economic growth. The influence of all kinds of uncertain factors makes it have the characteristic of high risk. The diffusion of technological innovation provides the possibility for the diffusion of risk. Once the risk of technological innovation spreads in a large scale with the diffusion of technological innovation in the market, it will affect the normal operation of the whole market and then affect the sustainable development of our country's economy and society. Therefore, it is of theoretical and practical significance to deeply understand the mechanism of risk transmission and diffusion of technological innovation. This paper summarizes the influencing factors, characteristics and modes of risk transmission of technological innovation, based on the theory of complex network. Diffusion theory and individual decision theory put forward a two-stage risk conduction model of technological innovation from the perspective of process. It divides the transmission and diffusion of risk into two stages: transmission and diffusion of technological innovation and transmission and diffusion of risk of technological innovation. Interaction rules and risk transfer rules realize the logical abstraction of technological innovation risk transmission and diffusion process. This paper uses the modeling method of Multi Agent to realize the computational experimental model of this theory on Anylogic software. Through four groups of simulation experiments, the types of technological innovation and the degree of local convergence of technological innovation are studied. The influence mechanism of enterprise heterogeneity and government intervention policy on its conduction and diffusion process. Through the analysis and summary of the results of the calculation experiment, the paper thinks that the network structure of local cooperation is the key factor to influence whether the risk of technological innovation can be spread on a large scale, and the type of technological innovation, the degree of local convergence of technological innovation, Enterprise heterogeneity affects the process of risk transmission and diffusion by influencing the local cooperative network structure and its superposition scope and the conduction velocity of risk in the local cooperative network. The government intervention policy affects the transmission and diffusion of related risks by directly influencing the transmission of external risks in social networks and indirectly influencing the negative network externalities of technological innovation.
【學位授予單位】：南京大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F273.1
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本文編號：2088840