本文選題：流動資金需求預(yù)測 + 制造業(yè)企業(yè)��； 參考：《中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟》2016年05期

【摘要】：銀監(jiān)會在2010年頒布的《流動資金貸款管理暫行辦法》中提出商業(yè)銀行流動資金貸款需求測算公式。本文研究了銀監(jiān)會測算公式存在的問題,提出了從靜態(tài)時點和動態(tài)新增兩個角度進行流動資金需求量測算的新方法。首先,采用“寶鋼股份”的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)說明了銀監(jiān)會方法和新方法的計算差異并發(fā)現(xiàn)僅用一個企業(yè)的計算結(jié)果很難證明兩種方法在預(yù)測準確性上是否存在顯著差異。然后,用A股制造業(yè)企業(yè)2010—2014年的大樣本財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)對兩種方法的準確性進行了實證檢驗,從兩種方法對資金需求的預(yù)測方向一致性看,新方法預(yù)測的準確率高于銀監(jiān)會方法,但兩種方法的準確率均不高。本文進一步研究發(fā)現(xiàn),上市企業(yè)存在較高比例的非理性流動資金借貸行為,這種行為干擾了預(yù)測準確性。剔除非理性行為干擾之后,兩種方法預(yù)測準確率會明顯提高,并且兩種方法在準確率上的差距也顯著縮小。本文的研究結(jié)論對商業(yè)銀行改進流動資金貸款需求量測算辦法和企業(yè)進行資金需求數(shù)量預(yù)測均具有重要意義。
[Abstract]:In the interim measures on the Administration of liquid Capital loans issued by the CBRC in 2010, the formula for calculating the demand for liquid capital loans of commercial banks is put forward. This paper studies the problems existing in the calculation formula of CBRC, and puts forward a new method for calculating the demand of liquid capital from the static point of view and the dynamic increase. Firstly, using the financial data of Baosteel, the paper explains the difference between the CBRC method and the new method, and finds that it is difficult to prove whether there is a significant difference between the two methods in the accuracy of prediction with only one enterprise. Then, using the large sample financial data of A share manufacturing enterprises from 2010 to 2014, this paper empirically tests the accuracy of the two methods. The accuracy of the new method is higher than that of the CBRC method. However, the accuracy of both methods is not high. In this paper, we find that there is a high proportion of irrational liquidity lending behavior in listed companies, which interferes with the accuracy of prediction. After eliminating the interference of irrational behavior, the prediction accuracy of the two methods will be improved obviously, and the difference in accuracy between the two methods will be narrowed significantly. The conclusion of this paper is of great significance for commercial banks to improve the calculation method of liquidity loan demand and enterprises to forecast the amount of capital demand.
【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院工業(yè)經(jīng)濟研究所;中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院;
【分類號】：F275

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本文編號：2082747