本文選題：貨幣供應(yīng)量 + 股票價(jià)格��； 參考：《上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：任何經(jīng)濟(jì)體的發(fā)展都需要金融的大力支持,近年來(lái)以股票、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)為代表的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格劇烈波動(dòng)導(dǎo)致了一系列的金融危機(jī)甚至是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。面對(duì)這一狀況,大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)體均通過(guò)采用不同的貨幣政策手段以維護(hù)金融市場(chǎng)的平穩(wěn)運(yùn)行或刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的繁榮發(fā)展。作為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)晴雨表的中國(guó)股市,他的巨幅的波動(dòng)無(wú)疑會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成巨大的影響。由于我國(guó)股市對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要影響,分析貨幣供應(yīng)量與股票市場(chǎng)的關(guān)系,能夠有效幫助正確貨幣政策的制定以及實(shí)施,引導(dǎo)股市健康的走向,防止其頻繁波動(dòng)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)造成不良沖擊。本文的研究采用理論結(jié)合實(shí)證的方法,分析我國(guó)貨幣供給量對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響。理論方面,通過(guò)梳理我國(guó)貨幣政策及股市概況,總結(jié)貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)股價(jià)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,分析其對(duì)股價(jià)的影響。實(shí)證方面,通過(guò)分析1996年1月至2017年2月間的貨幣供應(yīng)量與股票市場(chǎng)的變化,研究其對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)的影響。利用Eviews軟件,選取我國(guó)各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量(M0、M1、M2)、貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)變量及上證綜指的經(jīng)過(guò)季度調(diào)整后的月度數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用向量自回歸模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,以驗(yàn)證貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)股價(jià)的影響。實(shí)證分析中所涉及的計(jì)量方法有:時(shí)間序列平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)(ADF檢驗(yàn))、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)。根據(jù)研究結(jié)果,得出我國(guó)各層次貨幣供應(yīng)量均會(huì)對(duì)股價(jià)產(chǎn)生一定的正向沖擊,而貨幣供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)中,M1-M0能夠?qū)蓛r(jià)產(chǎn)生正向影響。最后鑒于研究的結(jié)果提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:The development of any economy needs strong financial support. In recent years, the volatile asset prices represented by the stock and real estate markets have led to a series of financial crises and even economic recessions. Faced with this situation, most economies adopt different monetary policies to maintain the smooth operation of financial markets or stimulate economic prosperity. As a barometer of China's economy, China's stock market will undoubtedly have a huge impact on the real economy. Since China's stock market has an important impact on the economy, analyzing the relationship between money supply and stock market can effectively help the formulation and implementation of the correct monetary policy and guide the healthy trend of the stock market. To prevent its frequent fluctuations on the real economy caused adverse impact. In this paper, the influence of money supply on stock price is analyzed by theoretical and empirical methods. Theoretically, the paper summarizes the transmission mechanism of money supply to stock price and analyzes its influence on stock price by combing the general situation of monetary policy and stock market. From January 1996 to February 2017, the paper analyzes the change of money supply and stock market, and studies its influence on stock market. By using Eviews software, this paper selects the money supply of different levels in China, including the money supply structure variable and the quarterly adjusted monthly data of the Shanghai Composite Index, and makes an empirical analysis by using the vector autoregressive model to verify the influence of money supply on the stock price. The measurement methods involved in empirical analysis are: time series stationary test ADF test impulse response function Granger causality test. According to the research results, it is concluded that the money supply at all levels in China will have a positive impact on the stock price, while M1-M0 can have a positive impact on the stock price in the money supply structure. Finally, in view of the results of the study, policy recommendations are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海外國(guó)語(yǔ)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F822.2

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