本文選題：金融開放 + 短期跨境資本流動��； 參考：《浙江大學學報(人文社會科學版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：隨著我國金融開放程度不斷提高,短期跨境資本流動對資本市場的影響日益增強。在此背景下,構建MS-VAR模型實證分析短期跨境資本流動影響我國資本市場穩(wěn)定的傳導機制,結果表明:(1)由于我國資本賬戶仍處于較嚴格的管制狀態(tài),短期跨境資本流動對資本市場的直接影響較弱且不顯著;(2)在間接影響機制中,短期跨境資本流動通過貨幣供給渠道的傳導沖擊作用較為強烈,而通過銀行信貸和匯率變動渠道的傳導作用較弱;(3)當受到外界突發(fā)事件沖擊時,各變量波動性顯著增加,并形成非對稱效應。針對金融開放進程下短期跨境資本流動的風險,應構建宏觀審慎視角下的跨境資本流動管理框架,并促進宏觀經(jīng)濟政策、宏觀審慎監(jiān)管和結構性改革間的協(xié)調配合,從而有效防范系統(tǒng)性金融風險,維護我國資本市場的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the increasing degree of financial opening, the influence of short-term cross-border capital flow on capital market is increasing. In this context, the MS-VAR model is constructed to analyze the transmission mechanism of short-term cross-border capital flows affecting the stability of China's capital market. The results show that the capital account of China is still under strict control. The direct impact of short-term cross-border capital flows on capital markets is weak and not significant. (2) in the indirect impact mechanism, short-term cross-border capital flows have a strong transmission impact through money supply channels. But the conduction effect of bank credit and exchange rate change channel is weaker than that of other countries) when it is impacted by the external unexpected events, the volatility of the variables increases significantly, and the asymmetric effect is formed. In view of the risk of short-term cross-border capital flows in the process of financial opening, we should construct a management framework of cross-border capital flows from a macro-prudential perspective, and promote coordination and coordination among macroeconomic policies, macro-prudential regulation and structural reforms. So as to effectively guard against systemic financial risks and maintain the stable development of our capital market.
【作者單位】： 浙江大學經(jīng)濟學院;
【分類號】：F832.51;F832.6

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