中國上市公司IPO首日破發(fā)影響因素的實證分析
本文選題:IPO + 首日破發(fā)。 參考:《華東理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文
【摘要】:IPO定價一向是新股發(fā)行過程中的核心問題,定價的合理性會影響股票的發(fā)行效果。自2010年起,破發(fā)潮席卷中國證券市場,至2012年三年間A股共發(fā)行885只股票,其中首日破發(fā)144只,首日破發(fā)率達(dá)到16.27%。IPO首日破發(fā)的影響因素是什么?這是本文需要研究的問題。 本文首先闡述了IPO定價的基本理論,梳理了IPO定價影響因素的研究文獻(xiàn),回顧了中國新股上市制度的沿革;接著以2009-2012年IPO公司為研究樣本,運(yùn)用邏輯回歸和線性回歸模型,實證考察主板、中小板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板IPO上市首日破發(fā)的影響因素。實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn):第一,新股發(fā)行市盈率越高、網(wǎng)上中簽率越高以及網(wǎng)下配售超額認(rèn)購倍數(shù)越低的公司,IPO首日破發(fā)可能性越大;并且市盈率越高的公司,IPO首日破發(fā)程度越大。第二,上市前資產(chǎn)收益率越高的公司,更有可能破發(fā)、破發(fā)程度越大。可能的原因是在中國轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)制度背景下,上市前的高盈利能力或許是企業(yè)盈余管理的結(jié)果。此外,創(chuàng)業(yè)板公司的成長性越高,IPO首日破發(fā)的可能性越小;成長性與IPO首日破發(fā)的程度顯著負(fù)相關(guān)。第三,市場行情對IPO首日破發(fā)顯著影響:市場行情越好,IPO首日破發(fā)的可能性越小、破發(fā)的程度越低;并且新股上市首日破發(fā)現(xiàn)象存在聚集效應(yīng)。第四,主板、中小板和創(chuàng)業(yè)板在IPO首日破發(fā)可能性和破發(fā)程度上不存在顯著差異。本文從IPO首日破發(fā)的視角檢驗了IPO定價的影響因素,從而拓展了IPO定價的研究文獻(xiàn);通過研究IPO破發(fā)的影響因素,有助于證券監(jiān)管部門制定更為有效的股票發(fā)行制度,為新股有效定價提供理論基礎(chǔ)和經(jīng)驗證據(jù)。
[Abstract]:IPO pricing has always been the core issue in the process of issuing new shares, and the rationality of pricing will affect the effect of stock issuance.Since 2010, the breaking tide has swept China's securities market, and in 2012, a total of 885 A-shares were issued, of which 144 were broken on the first day. What are the factors affecting the first-day breaking rate of 16.27%.IPO?This is a problem that needs to be studied in this paper.This paper first expounds the basic theory of IPO pricing, combs the research literature on the factors influencing IPO pricing, reviews the evolution of China's IPO system, and then takes IPO Company as the research sample from 2009-2012 to use logical regression and linear regression models.Empirical study of the main board, small and medium-sized board and gem IPO on the first day of the impact of the factors.The empirical study finds that: first, the higher the price-earnings ratio of the new issue, the higher the net signing ratio and the lower the over-subscription ratio under the net, the greater the probability of breaking the IPO on the first day; the higher the price-earnings ratio, the greater the breaking degree of the IPO on the first day.Second, the higher the return on assets before listing, the more likely to break, the greater the degree of break.The possible reason is that in the context of China's transition economy system, the high profitability before listing may be the result of earnings management.In addition, the higher the growth of gem companies, the less the possibility of IPO breaking on the first day, and the negative correlation between growth and the degree of IPO breaking on the first day.Third, the market has a significant impact on the first day of IPO: the better the market, the less likely it is and the lower the extent of the break; and there is a clustering effect on the first-day break of new shares.Fourth, there is no significant difference between the main board, the small and medium-sized board and the growth enterprise board in the possibility and degree of breaking on the first day of IPO.This paper examines the influencing factors of IPO pricing from the perspective of IPO's first-day break, thus expands the research literature on IPO pricing, and by studying the influencing factors of IPO breakage, it is helpful for the securities regulatory authorities to formulate more effective stock issuance system.Provide theoretical basis and empirical evidence for effective pricing of new shares.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華東理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號】:F832.51;F275
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